Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans Odds & Game Pick (2021)
Among the eight early-afternoon NFL games this Sunday is an AFC matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans. The outlooks for these two teams with three weeks remaining in the regular season are drastically different. Although the Texans are the side that enters this matchup off a win, they are still hunting for a top-three pick in next year's draft. Meanwhile, the Chargers will look to get back on track and avoid what would be a devastating loss concerning their playoff aspirations. The NFL betting odds have installed the visitors as a double-digit favorite ahead of this Week 16 game.
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Details
Opening Lines: Chargers -10.5; O/U 45.5
Current Lines: Chargers -10.5; O/U 46
Location: NRG Stadium - Houston, TX
Start Time: 1 p.m. EDT
TV: CBS
Last Meeting: September 22, 2019 - The Texans defeated the Chargers 27-20 in Carson.
Overview
After suffering a heartbreaking overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last Thursday, the Chargers are now facing a steep climb with regards to winning the AFC West Division. However, a Wild Card remains very much in play for Brandon Staley's team. Of course, it will be paramount that the Chargers take advantage of Sunday's favorable NFL betting matchup. Justin Herbert continues to impress in his sophomore season. He has led Los Angeles to a top-three ranking in adjusted offensive efficiency. Both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have the potential to dominate the weak Houston secondary.
Again this week, the primary concern for the Chargers' offense is the health of lead running back Austin Ekeler. He split the workload evenly with Justin Jackson last week and has yet to practice beyond a limited capacity ahead of Sunday's game. To his credit, Jackson averaged 6.6 yards per carry last week. No matter who leads the LA backfield on Sunday, there should be plenty of running lanes to be found against what has been an awful Texans run defense all season long. Concerning the Bolts' defensive secondary, both Derwin James and Asante Samuel Jr. were able to get in limited practice sessions on Wednesday after suffering injuries in last week's game.
Despite having a massive NFL betting line move against them, the Texans had little difficulty defeating the Jacksonville Jaguars by two touchdowns last week. Unfortunately, the win likely will prevent Houston from having any shot at drafting No. 1 overall next spring. Concerning that high draft pick, the Texans appear to be set in stone on giving rookie QB Davis Mills every possible opportunity to show them something down the stretch of this season. Despite Tyrod Taylor returning to practice in full, coach David Culley declared Mills the starting quarterback for the remainder of the season. The accuracy of his comment that Mills gives Houston "the best chance to win" is another story.
One hurdle that Mills may be forced to try and overcome is the absence of top wideout Brandin Cooks. The star receiver was placed in virus protocols earlier this week, leaving his status for Sunday's NFL betting matchup in doubt. A matchup against the stout Chargers pass defense is also far from ideal. While opponents were largely able to exploit LA on the ground earlier in the year, the Chargers have shown drastic improvement in stopping the run over the past month. Then again, the Texans don't have much of a ground game to speak of either. When a 31-year-old Rex Burkhead is carrying the ball over 15 times, that typically isn't a great sign. Yes, that actually happened last week, and no, Burkhead was not effective whatsoever (2.6 yards per carry).
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Trends
- Chargers are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
- Four of the Chargers' last five games have gone over the total.
- Texans are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games.
- The total has gone under in eight of the Texans' last 12 games.
- Chargers are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in seven previous head-to-head matchups against the Texans.
Bottom Line
While the Chargers should be able to win this game going away, trusting Los Angeles to cover a double-digit spread as road favorites is not an intriguing option. Even as the team's win-loss record has improved this season compared to years gone by, the Chargers simply find a way to play in close games almost every single week. Even when matched up against teams they should clobber (like the Texans), LA typically finds a way to make things stressful for bettors.
Instead of testing our luck with a 10-point spread, we'll opt to play the total over. If the Chargers bring their A-game on Sunday, Justin Hebert and the offense should have no trouble exploiting numerous favorable matchups against the Texans' defense. While the potential absence of Brandin Cooks doesn't bode well for Houston, the possibility of garbage time could afford Davis Mills and the offense an opportunity to grab some cheap points. In terms of scoring defense, the Chargers have not been very strong of late. Even the Mike Glennon-led New York Giants scored three touchdowns against them two weeks ago. It would not come as a shock to see this total rise higher between now and kickoff.
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeHenry.