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Louisville vs. Miami: College Football Week 12 Odds & Picks (2023)

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Gear up for another awesome weekend of college football action with BettingPros! We’ll have you covered with all of our top picks for the week along with our projected spreads and totals to help guide your college football bets. Below are our top picks and predictions for Saturday’s game: Louisville vs. Miami.

Top College Football Odds & Picks: Louisville vs. Miami

#10 Louisville +1 @ Miami AND UNDER 46.5

I’ve swung and missed with Louisville a few times this season, but this is more about Miami. The Hurricanes went with the freshman QB Emory Williams last week, and he provided a great spark before leaving with the brutal compound fracture. Miami is now forced to go back to Tyler Van Dyke, who was benched for turnover issues, and he faces a defense that has forced 18 turnovers this season (t-21st). The Louisville defense has also held teams to an average of 17.1 points per game (PPG) and is 10th nationally against the run.  

Scoring can be an issue for Louisville, as Miami has a strong defense against the run (seventh nationally). I am confident Louisville can switch gears and pass the ball against Miami. I would describe Hurricanes as ‘middle of the road’ against the pass, and Louisville has won behind Jack Plummer doing “just enough to win,” and I think that trend continues here.  

Miami played very well against Florida State and beat the spread against them last week, but I think the wind was taken out of their sails when Emory Williams went out. If Louisville forces an INT or fumble by Van Dyke early in this game, I feel like the Hurricanes will crumble. These teams will probably play this a bit tight, but I will take the Cardinal and the Under, with Louisville getting a point (or a pick since it’s all over the place).

Miami played their ‘big game’ last week, and they’ve already qualified for a Bowl game, so nothing is on the line for them, and Louisville could be in line for a major Bowl game.

Best Ways to Bet College Football for Beginners

Game Total

Bettors new to the hobby can be confused by spreads, but game totals are simple. Every football game has a total posted for the combined final score between the two teams. Bettors have the option to choose the OVER or UNDER, generally at -110 odds (risk: $110; win: $100). So if the total is 42 and you take the OVER, you need 43 points to win the bet. If you put a bet down on the over to win $100 and it goes over, you get back the money you initially risked, plus $100. If it stayed under, you would have lost your $110 and that's it. If by chance the game ended with 42 total points, it's called a push; when a game pushes, you get the money you risked back but nothing more.

ie: California vs. Illinois, Over 42 or Under 42

tip: Over bets can be a really fun social event with your buddies. Have everyone throw in a few bucks, then take the over together. Instead of getting pumped when one side scores, everyone is pumped for ANY score, all game.

Moneyline

The moneyline is the easiest way to test your college football knowledge: who will win the game? That's it. The moneyline doesn't use favorites or underdogs, it's totally straight up. That said, the risk-reward can be challenging because they're weighted. Instead of every game being around -110, like game totals and spreads, moneylines vary depending on the matchup.

For our example, California was favored by seven points over Illinois, meaning oddsmakers think the Golden Bears are a touchdown better than the Fighting Illini. If you took Cal on the moneyline, points don't matter, they just need to win the game. But because it's safer to take them straight-up without points, you'll have to risk more when you make the bet - remember, they're seven points better than Illinois in the eyes of the oddsmakers. In this case, Cal is -280 on the moneyline, so if you want to win $100, you have to risk $280. On the flip side, moneyline bets can be valuable when taking the underdog because it's a riskier bet - they're seven points worse than their opponent. In this case, Illinois is the underdog - +220 on the moneyline. You'd win $220 on a $100 bet if you picked Illinois on the moneyline and they pulled off the upset.

ie: California (ML -280) vs. Illinois (ML +220)

tip: Check their history against one another. Keep an eye on the injury report and the weather.

Player Props

Player props are some of the most exhilarating bets you can place during a college football game, but they're also easy to understand. For major conferences, you'll have a wide array of options to choose from. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, and sometimes tight ends will have props to choose from. It's simple, fun and easy to follow, and odds on player props don't vary as much as moneylines. Generally, prop bets are in the -110 range like generic spread and total bets.

ie: How many passing yards will Brandon Peters have against California?  Over 250 or Under 250 

tip: Check how players have performed in the situation they're going to be in. Use split stats on any reliable site to see their numbers at home, on a neutral-site, in December, etc.


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