LSU Tigers vs. UCLA Bruins Odds & Game Pick (2021)
No. 16 LSU Tigers opens its season with an SEC-Pac-12 showdown against the UCLA Bruins (1-0) at the Rose Bowl Saturday. It’s a big season for both head coaches. LSU head coach Ed Orgeron tries to get the Tigers back into the national title conversation after a disappointing 2020. UCLA head coach Chip Kelly hopes to have his first winning season at the program.
It was a good start for the Bruins, who crushed the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 44-10 in Week 0. They are one of the few programs with a game under their belt. UCLA outgained the Rainbow Warriors 244-36 on the ground and intercepted them twice. The Bruins are returning 10 starters on both offense and defense, including senior QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson who’s in his fourth season as the starter in Kelly’s fourth year on the job.
The Tigers finished just 5-5 last season after winning the 2019 National Championship in a difficult but ultimately disappointing title defense. LSU had to replace a bevy of starters on both sides of the ball while having a COVID-altered offseason, and it was the first season in Orgeron’s four-plus-season tenure the Tigers finished the season outside the top-25. LSU returns nine starters on both sides of the ball and sophomore QB Max Johnson who was 3-3 and started the last six games of the season for the Tigers.
Let’s look for some angles to better handicap this LSU-UCLA battle.
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Details
- Opening Line: LSU -5
- Current Line: LSU -3
- Over/Under: 65.5
- Location: Rose Bowl. Pasadena, CA
- Start Time: Saturday, September 4, 2021. 8:30 pm EST
- First-ever meeting
Trends
The Bruins are just 1-6 overall and 2-5 against the spread (ATS) with a minus-8.6 ATS margin in non-conference games since 2018 (Kelly's first year at UCLA). Over that same time span, LSU is 11-0 overall and 7-4 ATS with a plus-6.3 ATS margin in non-conference games. UCLA is 2-5 Over/Under (O/U) in non-conference games, while LSU is 8-2-1 O/U.
Action report
*Betting splits pulled from Pregame.com’s Game Center*
LSU opened up as 5-point road favorites but has been moved down to the current number by oddsmakers despite a slight majority of the cash and nearly two-thirds of the bets placed being on the Tigers. Sportsbooks brought the LSU-UCLA total down from the 70.5-point opener to its current price due to nearly 80% of the money being on the Under.
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Handicap
It isn’t groundbreaking intel that LSU recruits and develops far more talent than UCLA or most teams not named Alabama, for that matter. According to the Football Outsiders 2021 Almanac, LSU ranks second in their "Returning Talent Index," and UCLA ranks 23rd. Football Outsiders describes the returning talent index as “team's talent composite weighted by returning production, net transfer ratings, and incoming recruiting ratings.â€
When factor in UCLA’s jump in competition from Hawaii to LSU, it's alarming that Robinson only completed 50% of his passes last week. Hawaii doesn’t have a single four-star recruit in the secondary (according to 247sports.com). And Football Outsiders projects Hawaii to have the 107th ranked defensive efficiency this year. With his experience and familiarity with Kelly’s scheme, Robinson should’ve lit up Hawaii. Furthermore, UCLA racked up 244 rushing yards on a 5.7 yards per rush average vs. Hawaii, so it's not like Robinson was throwing into tight windows.
On the other hand, LSU has three five-star recruits in their secondary. Including a probable top-10 pick in CB Derek Stingley Jr. Also, they have way more talent up front than Hawaii, so UCLA will not get the same push to help the running game. The projected final score based on the pricing of this game is LSU 34.25, UCLA 31.25. I would've needed to see better offensive execution from the Bruins in Week 0 to have any confidence in UCLA scoring 30 against LSU.
Lastly, the math gurus over at Football Outsiders gave LSU a 63% projected win likelihood vs. UCLA. But, LSU's implied win probability by the -140 money line price is 58.3%. So there's a smidge of value on LSU's money line in this spot.
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Geoff Clark is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Geoff, check out his archive and follow him @Geoffery_Clark.