Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill UFC Fight Night Picks & Predictions (5/20)
Overall an extremely rough week. A couple of fights did not go our way, and that’s the nature of the fight business. We have another solid lineup of fights this week that present substantial value. Let’s dive in and see if we can get to the window with some winners!!
Record:
- ML 8-6-1 (+.25 units)
- Props 3-7-1 (-3.25 units)
- Parlays 0-6 (-3 units)
- Overall (-6 units)
MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success. We are going to look at numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let's look at the statistics that will help us make our best bets.
Glossary
- Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
- Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
- Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
- Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of Distance Strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
- Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
- KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
- Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
- Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
- Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)
The main key to this analysis is we are going to look at each fighter's last three fights. This is more indicative of a fighter's form and general ability than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data.
UFC Fight Night Best Bets
Let's dive into some of our best bets for this upcoming UFC card.
Mackenzie Dern (-170) vs Angela Hill (+145)
Mackenzie Dern
- Dist Acc Off: 30.2%
- Dist Att/Min: 11.42
- Dist Def: 47%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 134 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 29.3%
- Control % Def: 10.6%
Angela Hill
- Dist Acc Off: 40.9%
- Dist Att/Min: 15.61
- Dist Def: 65%
- KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 223 distance strikes)
- Control % Off: 6%
- Control % Def: 16.3%
This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup. Dern’s control % off is good but not elite (29.3%). Hill’s control % def is also good but not elite (16.3%). It is pretty straightforward if Dern does not get this to a control position, she is going to get peppered for five straight rounds. I am going with Hill as she has a bigger advantage on the feet than Dern has in control positions. Hill +145 is the play.
The Bets
ML Parlay
Parlay Odds: +526
This gives us three fighters with clear advantages and clear paths to victory.
Props Parlay
Parlay Odds: +522
Hernandez by submission is my favorite play of the whole card, pairing that with Johnson who has an advantage on the feet gives us a solid payout.
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You can find me on Twitter @goldendomer622 if you have any questions about the process or comments in general. Tune into our next article. Good luck with your bets this weekend!!!!