March Madness Bracket Cheat Sheet (2022)

March Madness is always one of the most thrilling sporting events of the year, but there is even more excitement surrounding this year’s NCAA Tournament after COVID-19 impacted fan attendance at games last year. One thing that always makes March Madness appealing is making your selections and entering bracket competitions.

Depending on the size of one’s pool and the amount of competition one will face, there are different strategies to utilize to give contestants an advantage and an optimal chance for success.

This article offers tips for navigating smaller bracket pools vs. larger pools and provides a sample bracket for each. In addition, we discuss teams we like and teams to avoid entering the tournament, citing which teams are prime to be bracket busters and which are on upset alert.

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Bracket Tips for Smaller Pools

Know Your League’s Scoring Format

There are several different ways bracket pools are scored. One of the most common ways is that the points for each correct pick double each round. For example, first-round games would be worth one point, culminating with awarding 32 points for predicting the right national champion. Under that format, it becomes imperative to pick the correct winner.

Other pools offer incentives for picking upsets, based on points being awarded points for correct picks relative to a team’s seed. For example, if you correctly picked a No. 1 seed to win a game, you might earn one point but would earn ten points for successfully picking a No. 10 seed to advance. Under this format, the winner’s total points are much higher, thus making identifying the correct champion not as imperative.

Do Not Go Crazy With Upsets

In smaller pools, there is not as much competition, so one, in theory, would not have to go too crazy picking upsets everywhere. However, no NCAA Tournament goes entirely chalk either (it’s “March Madness” after all), so one would want to separate themselves by picking some surprises.

Keep in mind the following historical trends about No. 1 seeds. First, just one No. 1 seed (2018 Virginia) has ever lost its opening-round game, so go ahead and advance all four No. 1 seeds to the Round of 32. In addition, No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16 86% of the time, so losing to the winner of the 8-9 game in their region is not likely to happen either. By comparison, No. 2 seeds advance to the Sweet 16 67.4% of the time.

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Bracket Tips for Larger Pools

Diversify Your Picks With Multiple Brackets

Some people find issues with contestants who submit multiple brackets. But if league rules allow for more than one submission, why not take advantage? When entering numerous brackets, make sure to diversify your Final Four and national championship selections since those are the rounds that are worth the most points.

It would also be wise to occasionally pick a national champion that is not one of the top pre-tournament favorites, as one would earn a significant advantage over the competition that mainly picked favorites. Your national champion does not automatically have to be a No. 1 seed, as just 64% of all national champions since 1985 have been a No. 1 seed.

Get Creative With Upsets

The most fun part of March Madness is the Cinderella stories, the underdogs that pull surprising upsets and advance further than most thought possible. One area to identify a potential sleeper is in the “First Four” games, as teams like VCU in 2011 and UCLA last year made the Final Four despite being chosen as one of the few teams needed to “play their way into” the tournament.

The following graphic (courtesy of ncaa.com) details how often a first-round upset has occurred since 1985. As you will see, No. 5 and No. 6 seeds are seemingly much better teams than No. 11 and No. 12 seeds, but those games are often some of the likeliest upsets.

Thus, find the right balance of upsets and higher-seeded teams advancing. Also, keep in mind that no team lower than a No. 11 seed has ever reached the Final Four, and just one year (2008) has seen a Final Four comprised of all No. 1 seeds. In fact, three No. 1 seeds have made the Final Four on just five other occasions.

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Sleepers To Target

No. 13 Chattanooga- No. 13 seeds are 5-7 SU over the last three NCAA Tournaments. The Mocs have offensive firepower, and are a matchup nightmare with size at every position.

No. 13 Vermont- The Catamounts are the fourth-most experienced team in Division I, and their style of play is very similar to Colgate, which gave Arkansas fits in the first round of last year’s tournament.

No. 11 Virginia Tech- The ACC Tournament champions are on fire heading into the tournament, and are a nightmare to prepare for given the complexity of Mike Young’s system. They received a favorable draw with a first-round matchup against Texas followed by a possible meeting with Purdue.

Teams on Upset Alert

No. 6 LSU- The Tigers recently parted ways with head coach Will Wade, and are in disarray entering the NCAA Tournament

No. 2 Duke- While the Blue Devils should get by their first-round opponent, Cal State Fullerton, a tricky matchup against the MSU-Davidson winner awaits. Both teams could exploit Duke’s defensive issues that surfaced in the ACC Tournament.

Sample Bracket to Enter For Small Pools

Sample Bracket to Enter For Large Pools

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