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March Madness Historical Seed Advancement Rate (College Basketball)

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Today, we will look at Historical Advancement Rates for seeds 1-4 for the last 20 years. The data is from the KenPom database (last 20 years). I have compiled a MasterSheet that includes every single tournament team (1,333 to be exact), along with 26 advanced stats to help predict tournament success. Now, these are just raw numbers to give you an idea of how often these higher seeds actually advance to certain levels of the tournament. The percentages show at what level a team was eliminated. In future articles, we will look at the characteristics of underachieving and overachieving higher seeds. Let's dive in!

March Madness Historical Seed Advancement Rate

No. 1 Seeds

  • 30 out of 80 – Final 4 (40%)
  • 23 out of 80 – Elite 8  (28%)
  • 14 out of 80 – Sweet 16 (17%)
  • 13 out of 80 – Eliminated Early (15%)

Historical trends:

  • Twice since 2002, there has been a Final 4 without a 1 seed (2006 and 2011)
  • In 2006, three (1) seeds made the Elite 8, and in 2011, only one (1) seed made the Elite 8
  • Only three times has there been one (1) seed to make it to at least the Elite 8 (2011, 2013, and 2022)
  • In 2013 and 2022, (1) seeds Louisville and Kansas made the Final 4 and won the championship
  • Only twice have three or more (1) seeds made the Final 4 (2008 all four and 2015 three)
  • Only twice have two (1) seeds been eliminated early (first two rounds) in the same tourney (2004 and 2018)
  • Nine years out of the last 20 have all four (1) seeds made the Sweet 16
  • 14 of the last 20 champions have been (1) seeds

No. 2 Seeds

  • 18 out of 80 – Final 4 (22.5%)
  • 18 out of 80 – Elite 8 (22.5%)
  • 13 out of 80 – Sweet 16 (16%)
  • 25 out of 80 – Second Round (31%)
  • 6 out of 80 – First Round (7.5%)

Historical Trends:

  • Five times, two (2) seeds made the Final 4 (2004, 2007, 2012, 2016, and 2022) 
  • Seven times, zero (2) seeds have not made the Final 4
  • At least one (2) seed has made the Elite 8 in every tournament in the last 20 years
  • 13 times, two (2) seeds have been eliminated before the Sweet 16 in the same tourney
  • At least two (2) Seeds have made the Sweet 16 every year
  • Only twice have all four (2) seeds advanced to the Sweet 16 in the same tourney (2009 and 2019)
  • Only twice have three (2) seeds advanced to the Elite 8
  • Two (2) seeds have won the championship in the KenPom Era (20 years) (UConn 2004 and Villanova 2016)

1 and 2 Seed Trends

  • Only twice have all 8 seeds made the Sweet 16 (2009 and 2019)

No. 3 Seeds

  • 9 out of 80 – Final 4 (11%)
  • 13 out of 80 – Elite 8 (16%)
  • 25 out of 80 – Sweet 16 (31%)
  • 24 out of 80 – Second Round (30%)
  • 9 out of 80 – First Round (11%)

Historical Trends:

  • Only once have two (3) seeds made the Final 4 in the same tourney (2003)
  • Six times, two (3) seeds have made the Elite 8 (2003, 2008, 2009, 2013, 2018, and 2019)
  • Three times, all four (3) seeds have made the Sweet 16 in the same Tourney (2008, 2009, and 2019)
  • Four times, only one (3) seed made the Sweet 16 (2005, 2010, 2014, and 2021)
  • Four times, zero (3) seeds failed to make the Elite 8 (2002, 2014, 2016, and 2022)
  • Only four times have three (3) seeds been eliminated within the first two rounds (2005, 2010, 2014, and 2021)
  • 12 times, at least two (3) seeds have been eliminated within the first two rounds
  • Three (3) seeds have never made the Elite 8 in the same tourney
  • Three (3) seeds have won the championship in the KenPom Era (Syracuse 2003, Florida 2006, and UConn 2011)

No. 4 Seeds

  • 6 out of 80 – Final 4 (7.5%)
  • 5 out of 80 – Final 4 (6.25%)
  • 27 out of 80 – Sweet 16 (33%)
  • 25 out of 80 – Second Round (31%)
  • 17 out of 80 – First Round (21%)

Historical Trends:

  • Two (4) seeds have made the Final 4 in the same tourney once (2013)
  • Twice have all four (4) seeds from the same tourney made the Sweet 16 (2014 and 2017)
  • Once, zero (4) seeds made the Sweet 16 (2003)
  • Three times have two (4) seeds from the same tourney lost in the first round (2008, 2018, and 2021)
  • Zero (4) seeds have won a championship in the KenPom Era

Trends of the 1-4 Seeds

  • Top four seeds represent 63 of the 80 Final 4 Teams (78%)
  • Top four seeds represent 122 of the 160 Elite 8 Teams (76%)
  • Top four seeds represent 201 of the 320 Sweet 16 Teams (62%)
  • 19 of the last 20 champions have been 1-3 seeds (the only exception was UConn (7) seed in 2014)

2023 March Madness Bracket Strategy & Takeaways

That is a lot of data to take all in one sitting. Let's break it down into actionable information that will help us when building out a bracket or just understanding how tournaments play out. There are a couple of things that stand out to me.

  • The sweet spot for (1) seeds in the Final 4 is two.
  • Picking three or four (1) seeds to make the Final 4 is chalky and unlikely.
  • Picking one or zero (1) seeds to make the Final 4 is reckless and short-sighted
  • One (1) seed will probably lose in the second round
  • Two to three (1) seeds will advance to the Elite 8
  • At least one (2) seed will be eliminated early (first two rounds)
  • Two (2) seeds will make the Sweet 16 and one (2) seed will make the Elite 8
  • (3) and (4) seeds have the same chance of being eliminated in the second round as the Sweet 16
  • Two (3) seeds will make the Sweet 16 and one (3) seed will make the Elite 8
  • Two (4) seeds will be eliminated early (first two rounds)
  • Two (4) seeds will make the Sweet 16 
  • A team (5) seed or higher will be the outlier in the Final 4 (10 of the last 11 years, a seed (5) or higher has made the Final 4)

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Thanks for reading and if you have any questions about the process or data, you can reach out to me @goldendomer22 on Twitter. Tune into our next article where we break down Bracket Pool strategies and how to take advantage of public perception.

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