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Marquette vs. Xavier: Big East Championship Picks & Predictions (2023)

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We’ve officially got a chalk battle in the 2023 Big East Tournament final at Madison Square Garden. The regular season champion Marquette Golden Eagles outlasted UConn as an underdog and will now face the second-seeded Xavier Musketeers, who demolished Creighton in their semifinal matchup.

In fact, it’s a game I predicted would happen when these two teams last met in mid-February. But of course, I gave out UConn to win the Big East Tournament in my betting preview.

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Saturday:

That tweet came following a thrilling back-and-forth affair between the conference’s top two teams. Marquette and Xavier split their regular season series, with each team winning on their home court by single digits. Now, the two teams will settle the score in the world’s most famous arena. And the Golden Eagles are 1.5-point favorites.

Best Bet for Big East Final: Marquette vs. Xavier

How should we go about betting on this Big East Tournament final? Let’s break down the matchup:

Marquette Golden Eagles (-1.5) vs. Xavier Musketeers | Total 156

Golden Eagles Rely on High-Flying Offense

Marquette did just enough to get past the Huskies Friday night. But at this time of year, just enough is more than enough. Marquette plays a beautiful offense with six guys capable of scoring in double figures and carrying the load in any given game. The catalyst is do-it-all guard Tyler Kolek, who won Big East Player of the Year honors by averaging 12.9 points, 7.9 assists, and 4.1 rebounds. Kolek, guard Kam Jones and forward Oso Ighodaro run a beautiful offense off screens. Kolek and Jones are capable of scoring inside and from the perimeter, while Ighodaro serves as the point forward with a nifty forward jump hook shot.

The Golden Eagles are at their best when they operate their offense within the paint. Marquette leads the nation in 2-point effective field goal percentage. They aren’t too shabby from 3-point range either, making 35% of their attempts from deep. The Golden Eagles have a tendency to fall in love with the three balls, as they rank 86th in 3-point rate. But when those shots aren’t falling, the offense can get stuck in the mud at times. However, Marquette takes exceptional care of the basketball, ranking 28th in turnover percentage.

Defensively, Marquette does primarily one thing right: turn teams over. The Golden Eagles rank 271st in 3-point defense and can get bullied on the offensive glass just like UConn did in the semifinal. But under coach Shaka Smart, there’s still an element of havoc when playing against this group. Marquette turns opponents over at the 16th-highest rate in the country, which can prove to be the ultimate equalizer.

Xavier Still Scoring Without Zach Freemantle 

Xavier was hit with a crushing blow just before the Big East tourney got underway. Third-leading scorer Zach Freemantle was lost for the season due to a foot injury that required surgery. And while Freemantle’s absence could harm Xavier eventually, it hasn’t hurt them yet.

The Musketeers have scored 171 points in two games at MSG. And while Freemantle is a critical part, guard Souley Boum is the guy who drives the offense for Xavier. Boum has put up 39 points in two games and has shot 8-of-13 from three in wins over Creighton and DePaul. Supporting Boum is big man Jack Nunge and guards Colby Jones and Adam Kunkel. The Musketeers have one of the most talented and experienced starting fives in the conference but lack much depth beyond their heavy hitters.

Sean Miller has turned Xavier into an offensive juggernaut in his first season back with the program. Xavier is fourth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, third in 3-point shooting, and 33rd on 2-point shots. Xavier also likes to play fast, ranking 31st in pace.

Like Marquette, the Musketeers are vulnerable on the defensive end. Xavier ranks 291st in 3-point defense and hardly turns teams over. But Nunge’s presence allows them to prevent second-chance opportunities on the defensive glass and makes them a decent interior defense.

Betting Pick and Prediction 

The first two games between these teams were thrillers, and I’d expect nothing less in the rubber match at Madison Square Garden. At -1.5, this line frankly feels pretty dead on.

In the first meeting between these teams, Xavier pulled down an offensive board on 42.5% of their possessions. In the second meeting, without Freemantle, Xavier earned an offensive rebound on just 16% of their possessions. The X-men hold the advantage with Nunge on the inside. But the Golden Eagles have several bodies in the frontcourt to throw at him. Whoever wins the battle inside will likely win the game, even if the star power resides with the guards.

If I had to bet on the side, I’d lean toward the underdog Musketeers, who could have a distinct advantage in the post. But that’s a slight lean, if anything.

Instead, I’ll turn my attention to the total. Both of these teams feature highly efficient offenses and generous defenses. And while both teams don’t look to run a ton in transition, they do rank top-100 in tempo and play fast in their half-court sets. Considering neither team offers much resistance defensively, I’d bank on a scoring frenzy in the Big East finale.

The pick: Over 156 (+110 DraftKings)

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