Matthew Freedman’s Favorite NFL Futures Bets: Comeback Player of the Year (2022)
Here are my favorite 2022 NFL futures bets ahead of the new football season.
You can also find my other favorite preseason picks here:
Matthew Freedman’s Favorite NFL Futures Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions
Comeback Player of the Year
Saquon Barkley: Comeback Player of the Year
Odds: +1600
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Barkley has top-five odds to win CPOY, as do RBs Derrick Henry (+450, Caesars) and Christian McCaffrey (+900, PointsBet), QB Jameis Winston (+550, DraftKings) and WR Michael Thomas (+1800, Caesars).
Let’s eliminate Winston and Thomas from consideration, given how tied to each other they are as teammates: For CPOY voters, they might very well cancel each other out.
As for the running backs, I believe that Barkley as a talent is in the same tier as Henry and McCaffrey. As a rookie, Barkley led the league in 2018 with 2,028 yards from scrimmage, not unlike Henry (2,141 in 2020) and McCaffrey (2,392 in 2019), who led the league in scrimmage yards in the two following seasons.
But Barkley (25) is younger than Henry (28) and McCaffrey (26), and I have the Giants (23) ahead of the Titans (26) and Panthers (27) in my offensive line rankings. And with HC Brian Daboll, he probably has the best play call of the three, given that Henry and McCaffrey have retreads in OCs Todd Downing and Ben McAdoo.
Henry and McCaffrey probably should have higher implied odds to win CPOY. I do have them projected for more yards and touchdowns this year.
- Henry: 1,458.2 yards rushing, 206.2 yards receiving, 13.0 touchdowns
- McCaffrey: 944.5 yards rushing, 686.8 yards receiving, 10.3 touchdowns
- Barkley: 965.8 yards rushing, 361.6 yards receiving, 9.5 touchdowns
But these are just median projections: Barkley’s best-case scenario is almost certainly as good as that for Henry and McCaffrey. His odds for CPOY should be much closer to theirs.
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