Matthew Freedman’s Favorite NFL Futures Bets: Offensive Player of the Year (2022)
Here are my favorite 2022 NFL futures bets ahead of the new football season.
You can also find my other favorite preseason picks here:
Matthew Freedman’s Favorite NFL Futures Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions
Offensive Player of the Year
Ja'Marr Chase: Offensive Player of the Year
Odds: +3000
Sportsbook: BetMGM
For years, this award often went to whoever won the MVP (often a quarterback) or to whichever running back had the best season.
However, over the past five years we've seen two shifts in how the award has been distributed. Yes, it's a small sample, but these two trends feel intuitive.
First, the award has moved away from MVP winners and toward skill-position players who weren't real MVP candidates. Only QB Patrick Mahomes won OPOY as an MVP and that was in 2018, when he had a 5,000-yard, 50-touchdown season in his first year as a starter. By definition, that was an outlier campaign. Essentially, voters have realized that it makes no sense to give the same person two different awards.
Second, the award has shifted away from running backs and toward wide receivers. Until 2019, the last wide receiver to win the award was Jerry Rice, in 1993. From 1996 to 2006, a running back won the award in every season but one (2004, MVP QB Peyton Manning). But since 2007, when the league started to shift away from high-volume backs and the running game, it would make sense to see more pass-game skill-position players win the award — and that's what we've seen.
Over the past five years, running backs (2017 Todd Gurley, 2020 Derrick Henry) and wide receivers (2019 Michael Thomas, 2021 Cooper Kupp) have split the award at two apiece, and over the past three years, receivers have a 2-1 edge.
In the current era, I think it's likelier than not that a non-quarterback will win this award, and for that to happen a player — in my opinion — needs to lead the league in at least two of three Triple Crown stats for scrimmage if he's a back or for receiving if he's a pass catcher.
- Gurley (2017): No. 1 with 2,093 yards and 19 touchdowns from scrimmage
- Thomas (2019): No. 1 with 149 receptions and 1,725 yards receiving
- Henry (2020): No. 1 with 397 touches and 2,141 yards from scrimmage
- Kupp (2021): No. 1 with 145 receptions and 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns receiving
And all of that leads me to Chase, who last year — as a 21-year-old rookie, after not playing his final season in college — was No. 4 with 1,455 yards receiving and No. 3 with 13 touchdowns.
Chase could be even better this year as he continues to develop, especially if the Bengals offense leans more on the passing game.
The three guys (Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams) who finished ahead of him last year in yardage all have OPOY odds that are way too high relative to his.
- Kupp: +1400, FanDuel
- Jefferson: +1500, DraftKings
- Adams: +2000, BetMGM
And that's especially the case if we look at their odds to lead the league in receiving.
- Jefferson: +900 FanDuel
- Kupp: +900, BetMGM
- Chase: +1200, FanDuel
- Adams: +1500, PointsBet
Touchdowns accompany yards. If Chase leads the league in receiving yards — and his implied odds (7.69%) to do so are about as good as the odds (10%) for Jefferson and Kupp — then he has a good chance to lead the league in receiving touchdowns.
And if that happens he will be very live for OPOY.
Basically, this bet is a way to arbitrage and leverage the market to lead the league in receiving yards.
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