Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 3 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets

by Matthew Freedman |
Sep 22, 2022

In this article each week I'll present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that - as of writing on Wednesday - I'm most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I'll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.

All odds are from the following sportsbooks.

Click on the sportsbook links above to check out their promotional offers. If you're not taking advantage of these deals, you're basically admitting to yourself that you hate money.

Also check out our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.

Freedman's Week 3 Projections Against the Spread

Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 3 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented - along with my projected lines and edges - from the perspective of the home team.

Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Sept. 21, 1 pm ET.

Home Team	Road Team	Consensus Line	Freedman Line	Projected Edge
CLE	PIT	-4.5	-1	3.5
IND	KC	6.5	5.25	-1.25
NE	BAL	3	-0.5	-3.5
MIA	BUF	5.5	5	-0.5
CHI	HOU	-3	-3.75	-0.75
CAR	NO	3	2.25	-0.75
MIN	DET	-6	-5	1
TEN	LV	2	-0.5	-2.5
NYJ	CIN	4.5	5.75	1.25
WAS	PHI	6.5	3.25	-3.25
LAC	JAX	-7	-9.5	-2.5
ARI	LAR	4	3.5	-0.5
SEA	ATL	-2	-2.75	-0.75
TB	GB	-2	-1.25	0.75
DEN	SF	1.5	-0.5	-2
NYG	DAL	-2.5	-1	1.5

Based on my current projections, I'm willing to bet on five teams at their consensus lines right now.

Steelers +4.5 at Browns
Patriots +3 vs. Ravens
Titans +2 vs. Raiders
Commanders +6.5 vs. Eagles
Chargers -7 vs. Jaguars

Freedman's Week 3 ATS Bet Breakdowns

Here are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

Check out our Steelers at Browns matchup page.

Kickoff: Thursday, Sept. 22, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
Location: FirstEnergy Stadium
TV: Prime Video

Steelers at Browns: Consensus Lines

Spread: Browns -4.5
Over/Under: 38.5
Moneyline: Browns -200, Steelers +165

Steelers at Browns: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 21.

Spread: Browns - 24% bets, 26% money
Over/Under: Under - 51% bets, 88% money
Moneyline: Browns - 15% bets, 22% money

Steelers at Browns: Key Injuries

Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 3 Injury Report

Player	Position	Injury	Mon	Tue	Wed
Devin Bush	ILB	Foot	LP	FP	FP
Minkah Fitzpatrick	FS	Lower Leg Cramps	NA	NA	LP

Pittsburgh Steelers: IR, PUP & Out

EDGE T.J. Watt (pectoral, IR): OUT
S Damontae Kazee (wrist, IR): OUT
S Karl Joseph (ankle, IR): OUT
WR Calvin Austin (foot, IR): OUT

Steelers Injury News

Cleveland Browns: Week 3 Injury Report

Player	Position	Injury	Mon	Tue	Wed
Jadeveon Clowney	DE	Ankle	DNP	DNP	DNP
Harrison Bryant	TE	Thumb, Thigh	DNP	LP	FP
Isaiah Thomas	DE	Hand	FP	FP	FP
Joel Bitonio	G	Biceps	DNP	DNP	LP
Jack Conklin	OT	Knee	LP	LP	LP
Chris Hubbard	OT	Illness	DNP	LP	LP

Cleveland Browns: IR, PUP & Out

QB DeShaun Watson (suspension): OUT
EDGE Chase Winovich (hamstring, IR): OUT
CB Greedy Williams (hamstring, IR): OUT
C Nick Harris (knee, IR): OUT
WR Jakeem Grant (Achilles, IR): OUT
EDGE Stephen Weatherly (knee, IR): OUT
TE Jesse James (biceps, IR): OUT
EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (ankle): OUT

Browns Injury News

Steelers at Browns: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Pittsburgh Steelers Trends

HC Mike Tomlin: 46-23-3 ATS (29.4% ROI) as underdog
HC Mike Tomlin: 38-34 ML (34.0% ROI) as underdog
HC Mike Tomlin: 51-37-3 ATS (13.4% ROI) in division
HC Mike Tomlin: 63-27-1 ML (16.9% ROI) in division
HC Mike Tomlin: 20-6-2 ATS (44.9% ROI) as divisional underdog
HC Mike Tomlin: 16-12 ML (42.2% ROI) as divisional underdog
HC Mike Tomlin: 4-0 ATS (89.9% ROI) vs. Browns HC Kevin Stefanski
HC Mike Tomlin: 3-1 ML (62.5% ROI) vs. Browns HC Kevin Stefanski

Cleveland Browns Trends

HC Kevin Stefanski: 7-15 ATS (31.1% ROI for faders) as favorite
HC Kevin Stefanski: 1-11 ATS (74.6% ROI for faders) in division
HC Kevin Stefanski: 0-7 ATS (89.1% ROI for faders) as divisional favorite

Steelers at Browns: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Steelers Offense vs. Browns Defense: 2022

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	-0.1	24	0.142	28	4
Total SR	38.7%	29	40.2%	7	-22
Total DVOA	-13.6%	22	9.9%	22	0

Steelers Offense vs. Browns Defense: 2021

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	-0.051	23	0.019	18	-5
Total SR	40.2%	30	42.0%	6	-24
Total DVOA	-11.0%	25	-2.5%	11	-14

Browns Offense vs. Steelers Defense: 2022

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	0.178	5	-0.062	6	1
Total SR	47.2%	10	42.7%	11	1
Total DVOA	29.0%	4	-10.5%	8	4

Browns Offense vs. Steelers Defense: 2021

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	0.014	18	0.006	16	-2
Total SR	43.7%	21	43.5%	12	-9
Total DVOA	4.2%	14	-0.6%	14	0

Steelers at Browns: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 32 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Mitchell Trubisky

EPA + CPOE: -0.011 (No. 28)
AY/A: 5.0 (No. 27)
QBR: 38.4 (No. 24)
ATS Value vs. Average: 0.2 (No. 16)

2021: Mitchell Trubisky

EPA + CPOE: N/A
AY/A: N/A
QBR: N/A
ATS Value vs. Average: N/A

Career: Mitchell Trubisky

AY/A: 6.4
QB Elo per Game: -17.2

2022: Jacoby Brissett

EPA + CPOE: 0.153 (No. 8)
AY/A: 6.1 (No. 23)
QBR: 59.3 (No. 12)
ATS Value vs. Average: -0.9 (No. 26)

2021: Jacoby Brissett

EPA + CPOE: 0.025 (No. 31)
AY/A: 5.3 (No. 31)
QBR: 48.2 (No. 22, if qualified)
ATS Value vs. Average: -1.9 (No. 39)

Career: Jacoby Brissett

AY/A: 6.4
QB Elo per Game: -34.7

Key Matchup: Steelers Offensive Line vs. Browns Defensive Line

I know that the Steelers offense is supposedly bad and the Browns defense is presumably good. But based on how theyâ€™ve performed so far in 2022 they seem fairly even.

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	-0.1	24	0.142	28	4
Total DVOA	-13.6%	22	9.9%	22	0
Dropback EPA	-0.117	24	0.225	28	4
Pass DVOA	-7.2%	22	15.7%	24	2
Adj. Sack Rate	5.7%	15	7.7%	16	1
Rush EPA	-0.066	16	-0.05	16	0
Rush DVOA	-14.0%	20	-2.6%	20	0
Adj. Line Yards	3.88	23	4.68	19	-4

We have the Steelers offensive line at No. 30 in our FantasyPros unit power rankings. Itâ€™s not good â€” but it has been decent enough to allow the offense as a whole to put up league-average numbers, and the Browns defense has been middling to date.

All-Pro EDGE Myles Garrett could have a big day against LT Dan Moore â€” but maybe he wonâ€™t. Moore this year has allowed just one pressure and quarterback hit on 77 pass rush opportunities (per PFF), and Garrett will have little support, given that fellow EDGEs Jadeveon Clowney (ankle), Chase Winovich (hamstring, IR) and Stephen Weatherly (knee, IR) are all out with injuries.

On top of that, Garrett (neck) is dealing with a spine issue of his own.

If the Steelers provide Moore with help against Garrett, they could keep QB Mitchell Trubisky clean in the pocket â€” and an unpressured Trubisky might just be good enough to cover.

Especially against this guy.

This line was +3 in the lookahead market, so +4.5 feels like too much.

Best Line: Steelers +4.5 (-110, BetMGM, PointsBet, Caesars, probably DK and FD)
First Recommended: Steelers +3 (-110)
Personal Projection: Steelers +1
Limit: Steelers +3

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

Check out our Ravens at Patriots matchup page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, 1 pm ET
Location: Gillette Stadium
TV: FOX

Ravens at Patriots: Consensus Lines

Spread: Ravens -3
Over/Under: 43.5
Moneyline: Ravens -155, Patriots +135

Ravens at Patriots: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 21.

Spread: Patriots - 11% bets, 19% money
Over/Under: Under - 31% bets, 48% money
Moneyline: Patriots - 78% bets, 97% money

Ravens at Patriots: Key Injuries

Baltimore Ravens: Week 3 Injury Report

Player	Position	Injury	Wed
Calais Campbell	DE	NIR-Rest	DNP
Devin Duvernay	WR	Concussion	DNP
Justin Houston	OLB	NIR-Rest	DNP
Marlon Humphrey	CB	Groin	DNP
Marcus Peters	CB	NIR-Rest	DNP
J.K. Dobbins	RB	Knee	FP
Travis Jones	DT	Knee	FP
Lamar Jackson	QB	Right Elbow	LP
Isaiah Likely	TE	Groin	LP
James Proche	WR	Groin	LP
Ronnie Stanley	OT	Ankle	LP
Brandon Stephens	CB	Quad	LP
Damarion Williams	CB	Ankle	LP

Baltimore Ravens: IR, PUP & Out

EDGE Steven Means (Achilles, IR): OUT
CB Kyle Fuller (knee, IR): OUT
OT Jaâ€™Wuan James (Achilles, IR): OUT
LB Vince Biegel (Achilles, IR): OUT
EDGE David Ojabo (Achilles, PUP): OUT
EDGE Tyus Bowser (Achilles, PUP): OUT
RB Gus Edwards (knee, PUP): OUT

Ravens Injury News

New England Patriots: Week 3 Injury Report

Player	Position	Injury	Wed
Kyle Dugger	S	Knee	DNP
Jakobi Meyers	WR	Knee	DNP
Joshuah Bledsoe	SAF	Groin	LP
Cody Davis	DB	Calf	LP
Davon Godchaux	NT	Back	LP
Raekwon McMillan	MLB	Thumb	LP
DaMarcus Mitchell	DE	Knee	LP
Adrian Phillips	DB	Ribs	LP

New England Patriots: IR, PUP & Out

RB Ty Montgomery (ankle, IR): OUT
WR Tyquan Thornton (shoulder, IR): OUT
EDGE Ronnie Perkins (undisclosed, IR): OUT
CB Joejuan Williams (shoulder, IR): OUT

Patriots Injury News

Ravens at Patriots: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Baltimore Ravens Trends

HC John Harbaugh: 59-48-6 ATS (8.4% ROI) on road
QB Lamar Jackson: 16-9 ATS (26.5% ROI) on road

New England Patriots Trends

HC Bill Belichick: 29-24-1 ATS (7.9% ROI) without QB Tom Brady
HC Bill Belichick: 30-16-2 ATS (26.8% ROI) as underdog
HC Bill Belichick: 25-23 ML (33.5% ROI) as underdog
HC Bill Belichick: 5-1-1 ATS (54.1% ROI) vs. Ravens HC John Harbaugh
HC Bill Belichick: 5-2 ML (49.3% ROI) vs. Ravens HC John Harbaugh

Ravens at Patriots: Team Statistics

Ravens Offense vs. Patriots Defense: 2022

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	0.17	6	-0.015	11	5
Total SR	43.8%	17	45.7%	21	4
Total DVOA	31.9%	1	-5.3%	11	10

Ravens Offense vs. Patriots Defense: 2021

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	0.009	19	-0.063	4	-15
Total SR	46.4%	10	42.5%	7	-3
Total DVOA	1.7%	17	-12.8%	4	-13

Patriots Offense vs. Ravens Defense: 2022

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	-0.033	17	0.103	26	9
Total SR	47.5%	9	45.2%	17	8
Total DVOA	7.4%	11	9.9%	21	10

Patriots Offense vs. Ravens Defense: 2021

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	0.07	10	0.078	27	17
Total SR	48.6%	4	43.2%	11	7
Total DVOA	10.5%	9	9.3%	28	19

Ravens at Patriots: Quarterback Statistics

2022: Lamar Jackson

EPA + CPOE: 0.180 (No. 5)
AY/A: 10.3 (No. 1)
QBR: 76.5 (No. 4)
ATS Value vs. Average: 2.3 (No. 6)

2021: Lamar Jackson

EPA + CPOE: 0.084 (No. 20)
AY/A: 6.9 (No. 18)
QBR: 56.8 (No. 17)
ATS Value vs. Average: 0.4 (No. 14)

Career: Lamar Jackson

AY/A: 7.8
QB Elo per Game: 82.1

2022: Mac Jones

EPA + CPOE: 0.058 (No. 14)
AY/A: 6.4 (No. 19)
QBR: 32.0 (No. 26)
ATS Value vs. Average: -0.1 (No. 17)

2021: Mac Jones

EPA + CPOE: 0.114 (No. 12)
AY/A: 7.0 (No. 16)
QBR: 56.9 (No. 16)
ATS Value vs. Average: -0.7 (No. 21)

Career: Mac Jones

AY/A: 6.9
QB Elo per Game: -14.6

Key Matchup: Patriots Run Defense vs. Ravens Run Offense

Even though this year the Ravens are â€œonlyâ€ No. 11 with a 43.0% rush rate, they are a running team at their core. Thatâ€™s what happens when you have QB Lamar Jackson (a ground attack cheat code) and OC Greg Roman (a run game coordinator by trade).

In trading away No. 1 WR Marquise Brown this offseason and replacing him in the draft with two tight ends (instead of wide receivers), the Ravens signaled that they want to return to their 2019 run-heavy ways.

But they could struggle to run against the Patriots. No. 1 RB J.K. Dobbins (knee) is yet to return from last yearâ€™s season-ending injury. No. 2 RB Gus Edwards (knee, PUP) is out. Backup RBs Kenyon Drake (17-39-0 rushing) and Mike Davis (7-15-0) have been pedestrian injury fill-ins.

Additionally, starting LT Ronnie Stanley (ankle) is yet to play this year after appearing in just one game last year and six games the year before that. And backup LT Jaâ€™Wuan James (Achilles, IR) is out.

With all these injuries, the Ravens offense has been predictably terrible on the ground this year, and the Patriots defense has been average at worst.

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
Rush EPA	-0.264	29	-0.046	17	-12
Rush SR	27.9%	31	48.8%	27	-4
Rush DVOA	-43.5%	32	-6.3%	17	-15
Adj. Line Yards	3.04	31	3.73	8	-23
Yards per Play	7	1	4.7	6	5
Points per Game	31	4	17	8	4

As a result, the Patriots defense has been a top-five unit in yards per play and points game through two games â€” just like the Ravens offense.

If the Patriots keep the Ravens in check on the ground, that could force them into a heavy reliance on the passing game, and while the Ravens have had success in the air this year (No. 1 in pass DVOA, 103.8%) itâ€™s never a positive development to become one dimensional against a Belichick defense.

Plus, the Ravens have had fortuitous matchups to open the year, facing the bottom-two defenses in pass DVOA in Weeks 1-2.

Jets (Week 1): 55.4% (No. 32)
Dolphins (Week 2): 48.2% (No. 31)

Iâ€™m skeptical that the Ravens pass offense is as good as it has recently looked â€” and if their run offense struggles in Week 3 then they could have an underwhelming performance overall.

In the preseason market, this number was a pickâ€™em. Not that much has changed between then and now.

Best Line: Patriots +3 (+100, Caesars)
First Recommended: Patriot +3 (-108)
Personal Projection: Patriots -0.5
Limit: Patriots +2

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>

Las Vegas Raiders at Tennessee Titans

Check out our Raiders at Titans matchup page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, 1 pm ET
Location: Nissan Stadium
TV: FOX

Raiders at Titans: Consensus Lines

Spread: Raiders -2
Over/Under: 45.5
Moneyline: Raiders -129, Titans +110

Raiders at Titans: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 21.

Spread: Raiders - 41% bets, 44% money
Over/Under: Under - 45% bets, 91% money
Moneyline: Raiders - 36% bets, 57% money

Raiders at Titans: Key Injuries

Las Vegas Raiders: Week 3 Injury Report

Player	Position	Injury	Wed
Andre James	C	Concussion	DNP
Chandler Jones	DE	NIR-rest	DNP
Treâ€™von Moehrig	FS	Hip	DNP
Bilal Nichols	DT	Shoulder	DNP
Denzel Perryman	MLB	Ankle	DNP
Hunter Renfrow	WR	Concussion	DNP
Brandon Bolden	RB	Hamstring	LP
Jermaine Eluemunor	OT	Hip	LP
Neil Farrell	DE	Shoulder	LP

Las Vegas Raiders: IR, PUP & Out

CB Anthony Averett (thumb, IR): OUT
RT Brandon Parker (triceps, IR): OUT
EDGE Jordan Jenkins (knee, IR): OUT
LB Micah Kiser (leg, IR): OUT

Raiders Injury News

Tennessee Titans: Week 3 Injury Report

Player	Position	Injury	Wed
Ugo Amadi	SAF	Ankle	DNP
Bud Dupree	OLB	Hip	DNP
Jamarco Jones	OT	Triceps	DNP
Taylor Lewan	OT	Knee	DNP
Ola Adeniyi	OLB	Neck	LP
Denico Autry	DT	Not Injury Related	LP
Treylon Burks	WR	Ankle	LP
Kristian Fulton	CB	Hamstring	LP
Dontrell Hilliard	RB	Hamstring	LP
Joe Jones	LB	Hamstring	LP
Kyle Philips	WR	Shoulder	LP

Tennessee Titans: IR, PUP & Out

EDGE Harold Landry (knee, IR): OUT
CB Elijah Molden (groin, IR): OUT
LB Monty Rice (ankle, IR): OUT
RB Trenton Cannon (knee, IR): OUT
LT Taylor Lewan (knee): DNP on Wed., feared OUT for year

Titans Injury News

Raiders at Titans: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Las Vegas Raiders Trends

QB Derek Carr: 13-24-1 ATS (25.2% ROI for faders) as favorite
QB Derek Carr: 1-7-1 ATS (60.9% ROI for faders) as favorite vs. playoff team

Tennessee Titans Trends

HC Mike Vrabel: 18-12 ATS (15.3% ROI) as underdog
HC Mike Vrabel: 8-4 ATS (27.7% ROI) as home underdog
HC Mike Vrabel: 5-1-1 ATS (54.2% ROI) off back-to-back losses

Raiders at Titans: Team Statistics

Raiders Offense vs. Titans Defense: 2022

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	-0.083	22	0.141	27	5
Total SR	43.9%	16	45.6%	19	3
Total DVOA	-16.0%	24	17.9%	29	5

Raiders Offense vs. Titans Defense: 2021

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	-0.001	20	-0.018	10	-10
Total SR	45.2%	13	42.6%	8	-5
Total DVOA	-3.4%	19	-2.3%	12	-7

Titans Offense vs. Raiders Defense: 2022

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	-0.153	31	0.065	23	-8
Total SR	42.5%	19	48.0%	30	11
Total DVOA	-19.2%	29	0.8%	15	-14

Titans Offense vs. Raiders Defense: 2021

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	0.025	15	0.061	25	10
Total SR	44.7%	15	44.5%	15	0
Total DVOA	-4.2%	20	0.6%	17	-3

Ravens at Patriots: Quarterback Statistics

2022: Derek Carr

EPA + CPOE: 0.038 (No. 20)
AY/A: 6.5 (No. 17)
QBR: 40.6 (No. 21)
ATS Value vs. Average: -0.3 (No. 19)

2021: Derek Carr

EPA + CPOE: 0.105 (No. 16)
AY/A: 7.4 (No. 12)
QBR: 58.4 (No. 14)
ATS Value vs. Average: 0.0 (No. 16)

Career: Derek Carr

AY/A: 7.1
QB Elo per Game: 14.0

2022: Ryan Tannehill

EPA + CPOE: 0.042 (No. 18)
AY/A: 6.3 (No. 20)
QBR: 48.3 (No. 17)
ATS Value vs. Average: -0.6 (No. 22)

2021: Ryan Tannehill

EPA + CPOE: 0.113 (No. 13)
AY/A: 6.6 (No. 20)
QBR: 61.8 (No. 8)
ATS Value vs. Average: 0.1 (No. 15)

Career: Ryan Tannehill

AY/A: 7.1
QB Elo per Game: -4.6

Key Matchup: Titans Pass Rush vs. Raiders Pass Blocking

Even without EDGE Harold Landry (knee, IR), the Titans defensive line has a marked advantage over the Raiders offensive line in our FantasyPros unit power rankings.

Rank	Defensive Line	Opp OL	OL Rank	Edge
13	TEN	LV	30	17

Specifically, the Titans this year have exceled at rushing the quarterback, and the Raiders have struggled most in pass protection.

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
Adj. Sack Rate	8.6%	25	9.5%	6	-19

If C Andre James (concussion) misses another game, I think the right side of the offensive line will be especially vulnerable. In his absence last week, rookie RG Dylan Parham shifted to center, and undrafted fourth-year backup Lester Cotton got his first NFL start filling in at right guard. Second-Team All-Pro DT Jeffery Simmons (8.5 sacks last year) could wreak havoc against those two.

And on the end of the line is RT Jermaine Eluemunor, a journeyman backup who has played most of his snaps at guard. He will likely be outmatched by EDGEs Denico Autry and Bud Dupree (hip, assuming Dupree plays).

This line was Titans -1.75 in the preseason market. Yeah, the Titans are 0-2 â€” but so are the Raiders.

Best Line: Titans +2.5 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Titans +2.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Titans -0.5
Limit: Titans +2

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders

Check out our Eagles at Commanders matchup page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, 1 pm ET
Location: FedExField
TV: FOX

Eagles at Commanders: Consensus Lines

Spread: Eagles -6.5
Over/Under: 47.5
Moneyline: Eagles -278, Commanders +240

Eagles at Commanders: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 21.

Spread: Eagles - 55% bets, 58% money
Over/Under: Under - 51% bets, 81% money
Moneyline: Eagles - 67% bets, 67% money

Eagles at Commanders: Key Injuries

Philadelphia Eagles: Week 3 Injury Report

Player	Position	Injury	Wed
Quez Watkins	WR	Illness	DNP
Avonte Maddox	CB	Back	LP
Haason Reddick	OLB	Knee	LP

Philadelphia Eagles: IR, PUP & Out

EDGE Derek Barnett (knee, IR): OUT
OT Andre Dillard (arm, IR): OUT
OL Brett Toth (knee, PUP): OUT
TE Tyree Jackson (knee, PUP): OUT

Eagles Injury News

Washington Commanders: Week 3 Injury Report

Player	Position	Injury	Wed
Shaka Toney	DE	Illness	DNP
Casey Toohill	DE	Concussion	DNP
Daniel Wise	DT	Ankle	DNP
Saahdiq Charles	OT	Shoulder	LP
Cole Holcomb	LB	Quad	LP
Trai Turner	G	Quad	LP

Washington Commanders: IR, PUP & Out

EDGE Chase Young (knee, PUP): OUT
C Chase Roullier (knee, IR): OUT
C Tyler Larsen (Achilles, PUP): OUT
RB Brian Robinson (leg, PUP): OUT
DT Phidarian Mathis (knee, IR): OUT

Commanders Injury News

Eagles at Commanders: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Philadelphia Eagles Trends

HC Nick Sirianni: 1-4-1 ATS (44.4% ROI) in division

Washington Commanders Trends

Divisional Underdogs: 205-146-11 ATS (13.8% ROI) in Weeks 1-4
Divisional Underdogs: 140-100-6 ATS (13.2% ROI) vs. team with two-game win streak
Divisional Underdogs: 24-10-2 ATS (36.1% ROI) vs. team with two-game win streak in Weeks 1-4

Eagles at Commanders: Team Statistics

Eagles Offense vs. Commanders Defense: 2022

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	0.212	4	0.068	24	20
Total SR	50.0%	4	43.0%	12	8
Total DVOA	27.3%	5	16.2%	28	23

Eagles Offense vs. Commanders Defense: 2021

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	0.061	12	0.08	28	16
Total SR	46.4%	10	45.1%	18	8
Total DVOA	8.1%	11	5.8%	27	16

Commanders Offense vs. Eagles Defense: 2022

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	0.069	10	-0.028	9	-1
Total SR	41.7%	22	45.7%	21	-1
Total DVOA	-0.1%	15	-9.6%	9	-6

Commanders Offense vs. Eagles Defense: 2021

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	-0.036	21	0.009	17	-4
Total SR	44.8%	14	46.2%	22	8
Total DVOA	-5.3%	21	4.7%	25	4

Eagles at Commanders: Quarterback Statistics

2022: Jalen Hurts

EPA + CPOE: 0.154 (No. 7)
AY/A: 8.7 (No. 5)
QBR: 70.8 (No. 7)
ATS Value vs. Average: 1.7 (No. 7)

2021: Jalen Hurts

EPA + CPOE: 0.088 (No. 18)
AY/A: 7.1 (No. 15)
QBR: 54.6 (No. 19)
ATS Value vs. Average: 0.5 (No. 12)

Career: Jalen Hurts

AY/A: 7.2
QB Elo per Game: 48.0

2022: Carson Wentz

EPA + CPOE: 0.112 (No. 11)
AY/A: 7.5 (No. 9)
QBR: 51.7 (No. 14)
ATS Value vs. Average: -0.2 (No. 18)

2021: Carson Wentz

EPA + CPOE: 0.070 (No. 22)
AY/A: 7.3 (No. 13)
QBR: 60.6 (No. 9)
ATS Value vs. Average: -1.6 (No. 35)

Career: Carson Wentz

AY/A: 6.9
QB Elo per Game: -2.2

Key Matchup: Commanders Interior Offensive Line vs. Eagles DTs Fletcher Cox & Javon Hargrave

If QB Carson Wentz is to exorcise his demons in this #RevengeGame against his former team, the interior of his offensive line will need to play well.

C Chase Roullier (knee, IR) is out, as is backup C Tyler Larsen (Achilles, PUP). And missing from last yearâ€™s starting unit are LG Ereck Flowers (released) and RG Brandon Scherff (free agency). So in Week 3 the Commanders will have three new year-over-year starters on the interior of their line, and this exact trio has never played together as a unit.

Given the situation, this looks like an excellent setup for DTs Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave.

Even so, I think the Commanders will perform adequately on their interior offensive line. RG Wes Schweitzer will shift to center, and he has made 19 starts in the interior for the Commanders since 2020: He knows the system. Replacing Schweitzer at right guard will be backup Trai Turner â€” a Pro-Bowler for HC Ron Rivera and OC Scott Turner from their time together with the Panthers. And although LG Andrew Norwell is new to the team, he is another Panthers transplant and was an All-Pro in 2017. He and Turner manned the interior of the Panthers offensive line together for four years (2014-17).

Even with injury issues and new starters, this is not a patchworked interior. It has decent continuity â€” and Schweitzer, Turner and Norwell could be significant drivers of success for the Commanders.

Without EDGE Derek Barnett (knee, IR), the Eagles defense is just No. 27 in adjusted sack rate (3.7%) through two games. If Schweitzer, Turner and Norwell are competent, they might be able to keep Wentz clean in the pocket.

And despite the offseason additions of DT Jordan Davis (draft), EDGE Haason Reddick (free agency) and LBs Kyzir White (free agency) and Nakobe Dean (draft), the Eagles are still bottom-five in run defense in every key metric.

Rush EPA: 0.204 (No. 32)
Rush SR: 50.0% (No. 28)
Rush DVOA: 23.1% (No. 29)
Adj. Line Yards: 5.56 (No. 29)

If Schweitzer, Turner and Norwell are able to hold their own against Cox and Hargrave in run blocking, the Commanders could use the rushing game to extend drives, grind down the clock, keep the explosive Eagles offense on the sideline â€” and keep the game close.

This line was -1 in the preseason and -3 in the lookahead market last Thursday. The -6.5 we see in the market now is an overreaction to the Eaglesâ€™ 2-0 start and their 24-7 Week 2 win against the Vikings on Monday Night Football.

Best Line: Commanders +6.5 (-105, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Commanders +6.5 (-105)
Personal Projection: Commanders +3.25
Limit: Commanders +5.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers

Check out our Jaguars at Chargers matchup page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
Location: SoFi Stadium
TV: CBS

Jaguars at Chargers: Consensus Lines

Spread: Chargers -7
Over/Under: 47.5
Moneyline: Chargers -315, Jaguars +265

Jaguars at Chargers: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 21.

Spread: Jaguars - 48% bets, 94% money
Over/Under: Under - 46% bets, 87% money
Moneyline: Jaguars - 6% bets, 36% money

Jaguars at Chargers: Key Injuries

Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 3 Injury Report

No injuries.

Jacksonville Jaguars: IR, PUP & Out

EDGE Jordan Smith (knee, IR): OUT

Jaguars Injury News

Los Angeles Chargers: Week 3 Injury Report

Player	Position	Injury	Wed
J.C. Jackson	DB	Ankle	DNP
Corey Linsley	C	Knee	DNP
Keenan Allen	WR	Hamstring	LP
Justin Herbert	QB	Ribs	LP
Donald Parham	TE	Hamstring	LP
Trey Pipkins	OT	Foot	LP

Los Angeles Chargers: IR, PUP & Out

DT Forrest Merrill (undisclosed, IR): OUT

Chargers Injury News

Jaguars at Chargers: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Jacksonville Jaguars Trends

HC Doug Pederson: 15-25 ATS (21.4% ROI for faders) on road
East Coast Teams: 116-94-8 ATS (6.7% ROI) on West Coast for afternoon games

Los Angeles Chargers Trends

Home Favorites: 24-15-1 ATS (19.6% ROI) after a Thursday Night Football road loss

Jaguars at Chargers: Team Statistics

Jaguars Offense vs. Chargers Defense: 2022

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	0.09	9	-0.015	11	2
Total SR	46.0%	12	44.1%	14	2
Total DVOA	18.6%	9	-14.3%	7	-2

Jaguars Offense vs. Chargers Defense: 2021

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	-0.079	28	0.044	24	-4
Total SR	44.0%	19	46.8%	27	8
Total DVOA	-15.1%	27	4.8%	26	-1

Chargers Offense vs. Jaguars Defense: 2022

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	0.045	11	-0.11	4	-7
Total SR	47.8%	6	36.9%	2	-4
Total DVOA	10.3%	10	-30.6%	3	-7

Chargers Offense vs. Jaguars Defense: 2021

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	0.088	5	0.111	31	26
Total SR	47.4%	5	47.0%	28	23
Total DVOA	16.0%	4	11.7%	31	27

Jaguars at Chargers: Quarterback Statistics

2022: Trevor Lawrence

EPA + CPOE: 0.185 (No. 4)
AY/A: 7.3 (No. 10)
QBR: 73.1 (No. 5)
ATS Value vs. Average: -0.8 (No. 24)

2021: Trevor Lawrence

EPA + CPOE: 0.009 (No. 35)
AY/A: 5.2 (No. 32)
QBR: 39.1 (No. 28)
ATS Value vs. Average: -2.5 (No. 44)

Career: Trevor Lawrence

AY/A: 5.4
QB Elo per Game: -58.4

2022: Justin Herbert

EPA + CPOE: 0.206 (No. 5)
AY/A: 8.4 (No. 6)
QBR: 70.6 (No. 8)
ATS Value vs. Average: 3.3 (No. 3)

2021: Justin Herbert

EPA + CPOE: 0.123 (No. 9)
AY/A: 7.6 (No. 10)
QBR: 70.9 (No. 3)
ATS Value vs. Average: 3.3 (No. 5)

Career: Justin Herbert

AY/A: 7.6
QB Elo per Game: 79.2

Key Matchup: EDGEs Joey Bosa & Khalil Mack vs. LT Cam Robinson & RT Jawaan Taylor

This offseason, the Jaguars took steps to fortify the interior of their offensive line by drafting C Luke Fortner and signing RG Brandon Scherff. With those moves, QB Trevor Lawrence has seen significant year-over-year improvement.

But they still have LT Cam Robinson and RT Jawaan Taylor as their offensive line bookends, and theyâ€™re average. As plenty of teams know, having average tackles is better than having nothing at all â€” but average play wonâ€™t be good enough against EDGEs Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. With those two leading the charge (#NailedIt), the Chargers defense is No. 7 with a 9.2% adjusted sack rate.

In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, the Chargers defensive line has a massive edge over the Jaguars offensive line, and thatâ€™s primarily because of Bosa and Mack, who already have six sacks this year.

Rank	Defensive Line	Opp OL	OL Rank	Edge
3	LAC	JAC	24	21

I expect to see Bosa and Mack combine for multiple sacks against the Jaguars.

Given that he got in a limited practice on Wednesday and has three extra days (from Thursday Night Football) to recover, I expect to Chargers QB Justin Herbert to play in Week 3.

And if he plays I think this line should be significantly higher. In the preseason, it was -10. In the lookahead market â€” before the Chargers played well against the Chiefs on TNF â€” it was -9.

The Jaguarsâ€™ 24-0 Week 2 over the Colts was impressive â€” but not enough to justify this move down to -7.

Best Line: Chargers -7 (-105, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Chargers -9 (-110)
Personal Projection: Chargers -9.5
Limit: Chargers -7.5

Freedman's 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests

The five spreads I've highlighted above are the ones that right (right now) I'm leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.

Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.

Steelers +4.5 at Browns
Patriots +3.5 vs. Ravens
Titans +2.5 vs. Raiders
Commanders +6.5 vs. Eagles
Chargers -7.5 vs. Jaguars

Also in consideration are:

Bears -2.5 vs. Texans
Rams -3.5 at Cardinals
Seahawks -1.5 vs. Falcons
Broncos +1.5 vs. 49ers
Cowboys +1.5 at Giants

Look for my tweet update on Sunday before kickoff.

UPDATE (Sun. 9/25): Hereâ€™s the tweet.

Week 2 Record

Picks in BettingPros tracker: 7-3-1 (+3.64 units)
Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 4-1

Year-to-Date Record

Picks in BettingPros tracker: 11-6-1 (+5.39 units)
Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 7-3

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

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Las Vegas Raiders at Tennessee Titans

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders

Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers

Freedman's 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests

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