Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 4 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets

In this article each week I'll present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that - as of writing on Wednesday - I'm most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I'll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.

All odds are from the following sportsbooks.

Click on the sportsbook links above to check out their promotional offers. If you're not taking advantage of these deals, you're basically admitting to yourself that you hate money.

Also check out our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.

Freedman's Week 4 Projections Against the Spread

Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 4 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented - along with my projected lines and edges - from the perspective of the home team. (For the London game, the Saints are technically the home team.)

Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Sept. 28, 9 am ET. 

Home Team Road Team Consensus Line Freedman Line Projected Edge
CIN MIA -4 -2.5 1.5
NO MIN 2.5 2.25 -0.25
ATL CLE 1.5 1.5 0
DAL WAS -3.5 -2.25 1.25
BAL BUF 3 1.75 -1.25
HOU LAC 5 5 0
NYG CHI -3.5 -1.5 2
DET SEA -4.5 -5.5 -1
PHI JAX -6.5 -7 -0.5
IND TEN -3.5 -3.5 0
PIT NYJ -3.5 -4 -0.5
CAR ARI -1.5 1.75 3.25
LV DEN -2.5 0.25 2.75
GB NE -10 -10 0
TB KC 2 0 -2
SF LAR -2.5 0.25 2.75

 

Based on my current projections, I'm willing to bet on five teams at their consensus lines right now.

  • Bears +3.5 at Giants
  • Cardinals +1.5 at Panthers
  • Broncos +2.5 at Raiders
  • Buccaneers +2 vs. Chiefs
  • Rams +2.5 at 49ers

Freedman's Week 4 ATS Bet Breakdowns

Here are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.


Chicago Bears at New York Giants

Check out our Bears at Giants matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2022, 1 pm ET
  • Location: MetLife Stadium
  • TV: FOX

Bears at Giants: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Giants -3.5
  • Over/Under: 49.5
  • Moneyline: Giants -170, Bears +145

Bears at Giants: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 28.

  • Spread: Bears - 48% bets, 54% money
  • Over/Under: Over - 21% bets, 55% money
  • Moneyline: Bears - 48% bets, 74% money

Bears at Giants: Key Injuries

Bears: Week 4 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Matthew Adams OLB Hamstring DNP
Dane Cruikshank DB Hamstring DNP
Jaylon Johnson CB Quad DNP
David Montgomery RB Ankle/Knee DNP
Ryan Griffin TE Achilles LP
Velus Jones Jr. WR Hamstring LP
Roquan Smith ILB Quad LP

 

Bears: IR, PUP & Out

Name POS Status Injury
Byron Pringle WR IR Calf
Doug Kramer C IR Foot
N’Keal Harry WR IR Ankle
Dakota Dozier G IR Knee
Alex Leatherwood OT PUP Illness

 

Bears Injury News

Giants: Week 4 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Cordale Flott CB Calf DNP
Nick McCloud CB Hamstring DNP
Wan’Dale Robinson WR Knee DNP
Sterling Shepard WR Knee DNP
Kadarius Toney WR Hamstring DNP
Jihad Ward OLB Knee DNP
Leonard Williams DE Knee DNP
Justin Layne CB Concussion LP
Aaron Robinson CB Appendix LP

 

Giants: IR, PUP & Out

Name POS Status Injury
Sterling Shepard WR IR Knee
Elerson Smith EDGE IR Leg
Rodarius Williams DB IR Knee
Collin Johnson WR IR Achilles
Darrian Beavers LB IR Knee
Shane Lemieux G IR Toe
Marcus McKethan G IR Knee
Matt Peart T PUP Knee
Nick Gates T PUP Leg

 

Giants Injury News

Bears at Giants: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Bears Trends

  • QB Justin Fields: 4-9 ATS (33.5% ROI for faders) overall
  • Road Underdogs: 382-327-16 ATS (5.3% ROI) in Weeks 1-4

Giants Trends

  • QB Daniel Jones: 8-13 ATS (21.8% ROI for faders) at home
  • QB Daniel Jones: 2-6 ATS (43.2% ROI for faders) as favorite
  • QB Daniel Jones: 1-4 ATS (43.0% ROI for faders) as home favorite
  • Home Favorites: 82-106-8 ATS (9.8% ROI for faders) off a loss as home favorites

Bears at Giants: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football ReferenceRegular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Bears Offense vs. Giants Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.032 17 0.054 19 2
Total SR 38.2% 31 46.2% 24 -7
Total DVOA -15.3% 28 16.6% 28 0
Dropback EPA -0.134 28 0.037 17 -11
Dropback SR 32.8% 31 45.9% 17 -14
Pass DVOA -47.4% 32 20.5% 25 -7
Adj. Sack Rate 18.1% 32 3.5% 30 -2
Rush EPA 0.044 6 0.079 29 23
Rush SR 42.2% 12 46.7% 26 14
Rush DVOA 12.8% 6 11.5% 28 22
Adj. Line Yards 4.79 9 5.09 30 21
Yards per Play 5 24 5.9 24 0
Points per Game 17.3 20 19.7 12 -8

 

Giants Offense vs. Bears Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.05 21 -0.015 13 -8
Total SR 40.6% 26 45.9% 22 -4
Total DVOA -7.5% 20 -2.9% 11 -9
Dropback EPA -0.098 24 0 11 -13
Dropback SR 40.5% 26 43.6% 12 -14
Pass DVOA -8.3% 25 -6.9% 10 -15
Adj. Sack Rate 13.3% 31 6.6% 14 -17
Rush EPA 0.039 7 -0.031 21 14
Rush SR 40.8% 18 48.4% 29 11
Rush DVOA 5.5% 11 0.6% 22 11
Adj. Line Yards 4.31 17 4.82 25 8
Yards per Play 5.1 21 5.7 19 -2
Points per Game 18.7 18 19 11 -7

 

Bears at Giants: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 48 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Justin Fields

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE -0.05 31
AY/A 3.5 32
QBR 23 31

ATS Value vs. Average: -3.0 (No. 33)

Career: Justin Fields

  • AY/A: 5.5
  • QB Elo per Game: -118.2

2022: Daniel Jones

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.027 24
AY/A 5.8 27
QBR 34 27

ATS Value vs. Average: -1.1 (No. 28)

Career: Daniel Jones

  • AY/A: 6.3
  • QB Elo per Game: -35.8

Key Matchup: Bears Rush Offense vs. Giants Rush Defense

No. 1 RB David Montgomery (ankle, knee) didn’t practice on Wednesday, but he’s theoretically day to day …

… so there’s a chance he’ll play in Week 4. And even if he doesn’t I don’t think that will matter given how well No. 2 RB Khalil Herbert has played in Montgomery’s stead. He went off with 20-157-2 rushing last week as an in-game fill-in, and last year he had 78-344-1 rushing in four games while subbing in for Montgomery.

And QB Justin Fields is always a rushing threat with his 27 carries this year.

The Bears are top-12 in all the key rushing efficiency metrics, and the Giants defense is outside the top 20 and might be without DL Leonard Williams (knee) and EDGE Jihad Ward (knee).

I think the Bears will control the ball with their running attack to keep this game close.

Best Line: Bears +3.5 (-109, Bet Rivers)
First Recommended: Bears +3 (-110)
Personal Projection:
Bears +1.5
Limit: Bears +3

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>


Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

Check out our Cardinals at Panthers matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2022, 4 pm ET
  • Location: Bank of America Stadium
  • TV: FOX

Cardinals at Panthers: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Panthers -1.5
  • Over/Under: 42.5
  • Moneyline: Panthers -125, Cardinals +105

Cardinals at Panthers: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 28.

  • Spread: Cardinals - 76% bets, 78% money
  • Over/Under: Under - 63% bets, 80% money
  • Moneyline: Panthers - 10% bets, 25% money

Cardinals at Panthers: Key Injuries

Cardinals: Week 4 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Kelvin Beachum OT NIR-Rest DNP
Marquise Brown WR NIR-Rest DNP
Zach Ertz TE NIR-Rest DNP
Rodney Hudson C Knee DNP
Rashard Lawrence NT Hand DNP
Justin Pugh G Elbow DNP
Zeke Turner LB Ankle DNP
J.J. Watt DE Calf DNP
A.J. Green WR Knee DNP
Zaven Collins ILB Shoulder LP
James Conner RB Knee LP
Greg Dortch WR Back LP
Rondale Moore WR Hamstring LP
Matt Prater K Right Hip LP

 

Cardinals: IR, PUP & Out

Name POS Status Injury
Tae Daley DB IR Head
Joshua Miles OT IR Undisclosed
Cody Ford OL IR Ankle
Colt McCoy QB IR Calf
Antoine Wesley WR IR Groin
Charles Washington DB IR Chest
Marquis Hayes G IR Knee
Antonio Hamilton DB PUP Foot
DeAndre Hopkins WR Suspended Disciplinary

 

Cardinals Injury News

Panthers: Week 4 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Christian McCaffrey RB Thigh DNP
Jaycee Horn CB Calf LP
Ian Thomas TE Ankle LP
Stantley Thomas-Oliver CB Achilles LP
Xavier Woods S Hamstring LP
Laviska Shenault Jr. WR Hamstring LP

 

Panthers: IR, PUP & Out

Name POS Status Injury
Bravvion Roy DL IR Hamstring
Andre Roberts WR IR Knee
Julian Stanford LB IR Undisclosed
Zane Gonzalez K IR Groin
Sam Darnold QB IR Ankle
Matt Corral QB IR Foot

 

Panthers Injury News

Cardinals at Panthers: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Cardinals Trends

  • HC Kliff Kingsbury: 18-6-2 ATS (42.4% ROI) on road
  • HC Kliff Kingsbury: 19-9-2 ATS (30.0% ROI) as underdog
  • HC Kliff Kingsbury: 14-3-2 ATS (53.4% ROI) as road underdog
  • HC Kliff Kingsbury: 12-7 ML (79.3% ROI) as road underdog

Panthers Trends

  • HC Matt Rhule: 5-13 ATS (40.6% ROI for faders) at home
  • HC Matt Rhule: 3-10 ATS (48.5% ROI for faders) as favorite
  • HC Matt Rhule: 1-7 ATS (70.0% ROI for faders) as home favorite
  • HC Matt Rhule: 1-7 ML (99.8% ROI for faders) as home favorite

Cardinals at Panthers: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football ReferenceRegular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Cardinals Offense vs. Panthers Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.004 11 -0.047 10 -1
Total SR 43.2% 18 40.4% 7 -11
Total DVOA -8.9% 21 -0.9% 14 -7
Dropback EPA -0.023 20 0.021 13 -7
Dropback SR 40.6% 25 40.6% 8 -17
Pass DVOA -5.1% 24 6.3% 17 -7
Adj. Sack Rate 5.1% 9 4.4% 27 18
Rush EPA 0.073 4 -0.154 10 6
Rush SR 50.0% 2 40.0% 15 13
Rush DVOA -5.8% 16 -10.3% 13 -3
Adj. Line Yards 4.33 15 4.19 13 -2
Yards per Play 4.8 26 5 10 -16
Points per Game 20.7 13 19.7 12 -1

 

Panthers Offense vs. Cardinals Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.05 21 0.191 31 10
Total SR 37.9% 32 51.4% 31 -1
Total DVOA -12.8% 25 22.0% 31 6
Dropback EPA -0.135 30 0.366 31 1
Dropback SR 32.0% 32 57.4% 32 0
Pass DVOA -22.9% 30 39.4% 30 0
Adj. Sack Rate 10.1% 28 2.3% 32 4
Rush EPA 0.082 2 -0.105 15 13
Rush SR 47.0% 3 41.2% 18 15
Rush DVOA 7.3% 9 -10.0% 14 5
Adj. Line Yards 4.98 6 4.60 18 12
Yards per Play 5.1 21 6.7 32 11
Points per Game 20.7 13 29 31 18

 

Cardinals at Panthers: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 48 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Baker Mayfield

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE -0.057 32
AY/A 7 14
QBR 18.8 32

ATS Value vs. Average: -2.4 (No. 32)

Career: Baker Mayfield

  • AY/A: 7.0
  • QB Elo per Game: -38.5

2022: Kyler Murray

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.019 26
AY/A 5.7 28
QBR 49.5 14

ATS Value vs. Average: 1.8 (No. 8)

Career: Kyler Murray

  • AY/A: 7.1
  • QB Elo per Game: 65.0

Key Matchup: QB Kyler Murray vs. Panthers Pass Defense 

Both teams have similar advantages in the running game. The Cardinals offense is No. 2 in rush SR, and the Panthers defense is No. 15 in rush SR. The Panthers offense is No. 2 in rush EPA, and the Cardinals defense is No. 15 in rush EPA.

I think both teams will want to lean on the ground game.

But when the Cardinals choose to pass, QB Kyler Murray will have a massive edge relative to Panthers QB Baker Mayfield and a direct edge against the Panthers defense and secondary (per our FantasyPros unit power rankings).

Rank Quarterback Offense Opp Defense Defense Rank Secondary Rank QB-Def Edge QB-Sec Edge
9 Kyler Murray ARI CAR 19 12 10 3

 

And as bad as we might think the Cardinals offensive line is, it’s no worse than the Panthers defensive line, so I don’t expect Murray to be under a great amount of pressure.

Rank Offensive Line Opp DL DL Rank Edge
24 ARI CAR 24 0

 

Per usual, Murray will be the difference in this game.

In the offseason market, this line was Cardinals -2. This line has moved too far in not even a month of action.

Best Line: Cardinals +2 (-110, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Cardinals +1.5 (-110)
Personal Projection:
Cardinals -1.75
Limit: Pick’Em


Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders

Check out our Broncos at Raiders matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
  • Location: Allegiant Stadium
  • TV: CBS

Broncos at Raiders: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Raiders -2.5
  • Over/Under: 45.5
  • Moneyline: Raiders -140, Broncos +120

Broncos at Raiders: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 28.

  • Spread: Raiders - 68% bets, 85% money
  • Over/Under: Under - 84% bets, 96% money
  • Moneyline: Raiders - 62% bets, 72% money

Broncos at Raiders: Key Injuries

Broncos: Week 4 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Tyrie Cleveland WR Hamstring DNP
Jonathon Cooper LB Hamstring DNP
Randy Gregory OLB Knee DNP
D.J. Jones NT Concussion DNP
Darius Phillips CB Hamstring DNP
Dalton Risner G Ankle DNP
Billy Turner OT Knee DNP
Baron Browning LB Knee LP
Melvin Gordon RB Neck LP
P.J. Locke DB Ankle LP
Quinn Meinerz G Hamstring LP
Aaron Patrick LB Shoulder LP
Mike Purcell NT Neck LP
Caden Sterns SAF Hip LP
K’Waun Williams DB Wrist LP

 

Broncos: IR, PUP & Out

Name POS Status Injury
Justin Simmons DB IR Quadriceps
Michael Ojemudia DB IR Elbow
Christopher Allen EDGE IR Foor
Greg Dulcich TE IR Hamstring
Damarea Crockett RB IR Knee
Tim Patrick WR IR Knee
Tom Compton T PUP Back

 

Broncos Injury News

Raiders: Week 4 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Neil Farrell DE Shoulder FP
Andre James C Concussion FP
Nate Hobbs CB Concussion DNP
Hunter Renfrow WR Concussion DNP
Foster Moreau TE Knee DNP
Tre’von Moehrig FS Hip LP
Rock Ya-Sin CB Knee LP
Kolton Miller OT Ankle LP
Denzel Perryman MLB Ankle LP
Bilal Nichols DT Shoulder LP

 

Raiders: IR, PUP & Out

Name POS Status Injury
DJ Turner WR IR Ankle
Anthony Averett DB IR Thumb
Jordan Jenkins EDGE IR Knee
Brandon Parker T IR Triceps
Micah Kiser LB IR Leg
Sincere McCormick RB IR Undisclosed

 

Raiders Injury News

Broncos at Raiders: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Broncos Trends

  • QB Russell Wilson: 83-71-7 ATS (5.1% ROI) overall
  • QB Russell Wilson: 27-13-2 ATS (30.3% ROI) as underdog
  • QB Russell Wilson: 22-19-1 ML (34.2% ROI) as underdog
  • Divisional Road Underdogs: 130-95-8 ATS (12.6% ROI) in Weeks 1-4

Raiders Trends

  • QB Derek Carr: 13-25-1 ATS (26.9% ROI for faders) as favorite

Broncos at Raiders: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football ReferenceRegular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Broncos Offense vs. Raiders Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.009 13 0.087 25 12
Total SR 40.1% 29 48.3% 28 -1
Total DVOA -11.1% 22 6.6% 20 -2
Dropback EPA 0.115 9 0.227 29 20
Dropback SR 40.5% 26 50.8% 27 1
Pass DVOA 10.5% 14 17.0% 23 9
Adj. Sack Rate 8.0% 24 3.2% 31 7
Rush EPA -0.222 27 -0.133 13 -14
Rush SR 39.5% 22 44.3% 24 2
Rush DVOA -18.3% 21 -6.5% 15 -6
Adj. Line Yards 4.77 10 4.14 9 -1
Yards per Play 5.2 20 5.7 19 -1
Points per Game 14.3 31 25.7 24 -7

 

Raiders Offense vs. Broncos Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.008 10 -0.142 6 -4
Total SR 43.8% 17 40.2% 6 -11
Total DVOA -12.5% 24 -24.3% 5 -19
Dropback EPA 0.048 14 -0.133 6 -8
Dropback SR 45.3% 18 39.5% 3 -15
Pass DVOA 3.0% 20 -25.9% 4 -16
Adj. Sack Rate 6.4% 17 8.8% 8 -9
Rush EPA -0.098 20 -0.161 8 -12
Rush SR 39.6% 21 41.8% 19 -2
Rush DVOA -21.5% 23 -21.6% 8 -15
Adj. Line Yards 5.08 3 4.52 15 12
Yards per Play 5.7 10 4.7 6 -4
Points per Game 21.3 10 12 2 -8

 

Broncos at Raiders: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 48 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Russell Wilson

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.076 16
AY/A 7 14
QBR 45.2 21

ATS Value vs. Average: -0.2 (No. 19)

Career: Russell Wilson

  • AY/A: 8.2
  • QB Elo per Game: 37.4

2022: Derek Carr

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.085 14
AY/A 6.6 20
QBR 48.8 16

ATS Value vs. Average: 0.0 (No. 17)

Career: Derek Carr

  • AY/A: 7.1
  • QB Elo per Game: 14.4

Key Matchup: QB Russell Wilson vs. Raiders Pass Defense 

The Raiders have no offensive edge in this game, but the Broncos have a big one: QB Russell Wilson.

It’s not that Wilson has been great this year, but the Raiders have been subpar in pass defense, ranking bottom-six in both dropback EPA and SR. Even with the strong EDGE duo of Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones, they’ve managed a league-low two sacks as a unit.

They let QB Justin Herbert walk all over them in Week 1 (279 yards, three touchdowns, 76.5% completion rate, 10.0 AY/A).

They let QB Kyler Murray come back from a 20-0 halftime deficit while getting minimal offensive support in Week 2.

And they let QB Ryan Tannehill save his job and maybe the Titans’ season in Week 3 (264 yards, one touchdown, 70.4% completion rate, 8.9 AY/A).

And they’re injured. They’re already without No. 2 CB Anthony Averett (thumb, IR), and they might be without No. 3 CB Nate Hobbs (concussion). Even No. 1 CB Rock Ya-Sin (knee) is on the injury report.

And S Tre’von Moehrig (hip) and LB Denzel Perryman (ankle) have both missed the past two games and are uncertain to return this week.

The Raiders defense is exploitable, and I expect Wilson to have his Broncos breakout against it.

This line was a pick’em in the offseason. Maybe the Broncos aren’t as good as the market anticipated they would be months ago — but that’s definitely true for the Raiders too.

Best Line: Broncos +2.5 (+100, Caesars)
First Recommended: Broncos +2 (-109)
Personal Projection:
Broncos -0.25
Limit: Broncos +1.5

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>


Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Check out our Chiefs at Buccaneers matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2022, 8:20 pm ET
  • Location: Raymond James Stadium
  • TV: NBC

Note: This game might be played in Minneapolis due to Hurricane Ian. Different sportsbooks have different policies when it comes to change in venue. Please be advised.

Chiefs at Buccaneers: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Chiefs -2
  • Over/Under: 45
  • Moneyline: Chiefs -130, Buccaneers +110

Chiefs at Buccaneers: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 28.

  • Spread: Chiefs - 70% bets, 88% money
  • Over/Under: Under - 64% bets, 89% money
  • Moneyline: Chiefs - 84% bets, 88% money

Chiefs at Buccaneers: Key Injuries

Chiefs: Week 4 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Shoulder FP
Andrew Wylie OT Hip FP
Michael Danna DE Calf DNP
Mecole Hardman WR Heel DNP
Chris Jones DT Not Injury Related DNP
Ronald Jones RB lllness DNP
Harrison Butker K Left Ankle LP
Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR Abdomen LP

 

Chiefs: IR, PUP & Out

Name POS Status Injury
Trent McDuffie DB IR Hamstring
Blake Bell TE IR Hip
Justyn Ross WR IR Foot
Lucas Niang T PUP Knee
Willie Gay LB Suspended Disciplinary

 

Chiefs Injury News

Buccaneers: Week 4 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Tom Brady QB Right finger FP
Akiem Hicks DE Foot DNP
Breshad Perriman WR Knee/hamstring DNP
Russell Gage WR Hamstring LP
Chris Godwin WR Hamstring LP
Logan Hall DE Groin LP
Julio Jones WR Knee LP
Donovan Smith OT Elbow LP

 

Buccaneers: IR, PUP & Out

Name POS Status Injury
Josh Wells OT IR Calf
Giovani Bernard RB IR Ankle
Cam Gill EDGE IR Foot
Aaron Stinnie G IR Knee
Kenjon Barner RB IR Groin
Ryan Jensen C IR Knee

 

Buccaneers Injury News

Chiefs at Buccaneers: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Chiefs Trends

  • HC Andy Reid: 24-15 ATS (21.3% ROI) in Weeks 1-4 (with Chiefs)
  • HC Andy Reid: 45-27-1 ATS (22.4% ROI) on road (with Chiefs)

Buccaneers Trends

  • QB Tom Brady: 23-9-2 ATS (38.4% ROI) as underdog
  • QB Tom Brady: 20-14 ML (45.0% ROI) as underdog
  • QB Tom Brady: 43-16 ATS (43.9% ROI) off a loss
  • QB Tom Brady: 48-11 ML (29.6% ROI) off a loss
  • QB Tom Brady: 10-0 ATS (96.0% ROI) as underdog off a loss
  • QB Tom Brady: 8-2 ML (102.1% ROI) as underdog off a loss

Chiefs at Buccaneers: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football ReferenceRegular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Chiefs Offense vs. Buccaneers Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.202 2 -0.275 1 -1
Total SR 48.9% 4 40.1% 5 1
Total DVOA 13.5% 10 -34.3% 1 -9
Dropback EPA 0.337 2 -0.293 1 -1
Dropback SR 55.9% 3 39.7% 5 2
Pass DVOA 41.2% 7 -43.1% 1 -6
Adj. Sack Rate 2.3% 1 9.4% 6 5
Rush EPA -0.080 15 -0.235 5 -10
Rush SR 34.4% 28 41.0% 17 -11
Rush DVOA -31.2% 29 -17.4% 10 -19
Adj. Line Yards 4.04 23 4.53 16 -7
Yards per Play 6.2 4 4.5 3 -1
Points per Game 29.3 4 9 1 -3

 

Buccaneers Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.129 30 -0.042 11 -19
Total SR 41.0% 25 44.7% 18 -7
Total DVOA -14.8% 27 -10.0% 9 -18
Dropback EPA 0.002 17 -0.02 10 -7
Dropback SR 43.5% 19 45.0% 15 -4
Pass DVOA 4.0% 18 0.6% 14 -4
Adj. Sack Rate 5.6% 11 8.1% 10 -1
Rush EPA -0.335 32 -0.088 16 -16
Rush SR 37.0% 25 43.9% 20 -5
Rush DVOA -25.1% 26 -28.4% 6 -20
Adj. Line Yards 4.22 19 3.98 6 -13
Yards per Play 4.8 26 4.6 5 -21
Points per Game 17 22 21.7 17 -5

 

Chiefs at Buccaneers: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 48 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Patrick Mahomes

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.209 1
AY/A 8.9 4
QBR 76.2 4

ATS Value vs. Average: 4.7 (No. 2)

Career: Patrick Mahomes

  • AY/A: 8.7
  • QB Elo per Game: 117.6

2022: Tom Brady

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.048 20
AY/A 6.7 18
QBR 47.5 17

ATS Value vs. Average: 2.6 (No. 6)

Career: Tom Brady

  • AY/A: 7.8
  • QB Elo per Game: 72.6

Key Matchup: Buccaneers Secondary vs. Chiefs Pass Catchers

TE Travis Kelce (17-230-2 receiving, 24 targets) is still one of the best players in the league, but the new trio of WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore has been unable to replicate or replace the lost production of WRs Tyreek Hill, Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson.

And against the Buccaneers secondary (No. 1 in our unit power rankings) they are at a clear disadvantage.

Rank WRs & TEs Opp Secondary Secondary Rank Edge
13 KC TB 1 -12

 

With WRs Mike Evans (suspension) and Julio Jones (knee) slated to return this week, the Buccaneers offense should be able to do just enough to make the heroic efforts of their secondary against QB Patrick Mahomes and his pass catchers not in vain.

This line was Buccaneers -2.5 in the offseason. They’ve struggled in Weeks 1-3 — but so have the Chiefs. This line has moved too far.

Best Line: Buccaneers +2.5 (-109, Sugar House)
First Recommended: Buccaneers +3 (-110)
Personal Projection:
Pick’Em
Limit: Buccaneers +1.5


Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Check out our 49ers at Rams matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 3, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
  • Location: Levi’s Stadium
  • TV: ESPN

Rams at 49ers: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: 49ers -2.5
  • Over/Under: 42
  • Moneyline: 49ers -135, Rams +110

Rams at 49ers: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 28.

  • Spread: 49ers - 35% bets, 70% money
  • Over/Under: Under - 74% bets, 99% money
  • Moneyline: 49ers - 20% bets, 75% money

Rams at 49ers: Key Injuries

Rams: Week 4 Injury Report

Not available at time of writing.

Rams: IR, PUP & Out

Name POS Status Injury
Tremayne Anchrum G IR Leg
Troy Hill DB IR Groin
Kyren Williams RB IR Ankle
Daniel Hardy LB IR Ankle
Logan Bruss G IR Knee
Van Jefferson WR IR Knee
Quentin Lake S PUP Knee
Travin Howard LB PUP Groin
Brycen Hopkins TE Suspended Disciplinary
Bobby Brown DL Suspended Disciplinary

 

Rams Injury News

49ers: Week 4 Injury Report

Not available at time of writing.

49ers: IR, PUP & Out

Name POS Status Injury
Trey Lance QB IR Leg
Jordan Willis EDGE IR Knee
Elijah Mitchell RB IR Knee
Curtis Robinson LB IR Groin
Jimmie Ward DB IR Hamstring
Jordan Matthews TE IR Knee
Maurice Hurst DL IR Biceps
Kalia Davis DL PUP Knee
Jason Verrett DB PUP Knee

 

49ers Injury News

Rams at 49ers: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Rams Trends

  • HC Sean McVay: 15-10-1 ATS (15.7% ROI) in primetime (including postseason)
  • HC Sean McVay: 24-18 ATS (12.2% ROI) on road
  • HC Sean McVay: 9-7 ATS (10.3% ROI) as underdog
  • HC Sean McVay: 8-3 ATS (43.0% ROI) as road underdog
  • HC Sean McVay: 18-12-1 ATS (16.6% ROI) in division

49ers Trends

  • HC Kyle Shanahan: 8-3 ATS (38.8% ROI) vs. McVay (including postseason)
  • HC Kyle Shanahan: 15-22-1 ATS (14.9% ROI for faders) at home
  • HC Kyle Shanahan: 17-26-1 ATS (21.6% ROI for faders) as favorite
  • HC Kyle Shanahan: 7-15-1 ATS (29.7% ROI for faders) as home favorite
  • HC Kyle Shanahan: 11-12 ML (50.6% ROI for faders) as home favorite

Rams at 49ers: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football ReferenceRegular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Rams Offense vs. 49ers Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.048 19 -0.166 4 -15
Total SR 48.3% 6 34.5% 1 -5
Total DVOA -6.1% 18 -28.5% 3 -15
Dropback EPA -0.027 21 -0.169 5 -16
Dropback SR 52.6% 5 35.3% 1 -4
Pass DVOA 5.2% 16 -24.7% 5 -11
Adj. Sack Rate 8.5% 25 10.2% 3 -22
Rush EPA -0.086 19 -0.161 8 -11
Rush SR 40.3% 20 33.3% 4 -16
Rush DVOA -3.2% 14 -32.6% 3 -11
Adj. Line Yards 4.15 22 3.36 5 -17
Yards per Play 5.3 18 3.9 1 -17
Points per Game 20.3 15 12.3 3 -12

 

49ers Offense vs. Rams Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.094 27 -0.008 14 -13
Total SR 41.3% 24 44.0% 14 -10
Total DVOA -12.0% 23 -0.3% 16 -7
Dropback EPA -0.108 25 0.128 23 -2
Dropback SR 41.0% 24 47.4% 19 -5
Pass DVOA 3.9% 19 16.4% 22 3
Adj. Sack Rate 8.0% 23 6.1% 21 -2
Rush EPA -0.080 15 -0.290 1 -14
Rush SR 41.6% 14 36.9% 8 -6
Rush DVOA -16.2% 20 -30.6% 4 -16
Adj. Line Yards 4.20 21 4.17 10 -11
Yards per Play 5.1 21 5.3 14 -7
Points per Game 15.7 28 23.3 20 -8

 

Rams at 49ers: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 48 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Matthew Stafford

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.086 13
AY/A 6 24
QBR 51.1 13

ATS Value vs. Average: 1.1 (No. 12)

Career: Matthew Stafford

  • AY/A: 7.2
  • QB Elo per Game: 22.2

2022: Jimmy Garoppolo

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.036 23
AY/A 7.2 9
QBR 28.9 29

ATS Value vs. Average: -0.8 (No. 24)

Career: Jimmy Garoppolo

  • AY/A: 8.1
  • QB Elo per Game: -9.1

Key Matchup: Rams Defensive Line vs. 49ers Offensive Line

The 49ers offensive line is in a bad spot. LT Trent Williams (ankle) is almost certainly out after exiting Week 3 with a sprain. And C Daniel Brunskill (hamstring) is yet to play this year — and he didn’t even practice last week. He doesn’t seem likely to suit up.

So the 49ers are missing their two most important offensive linemen — and they’re now facing All-Pro DT Aaron Donald.

The 49ers offense is built around their running game. They’re No. 3 in teh league with a 53.4% rush rate. But the Rams defense is No. 1 in rush EPA (-0.290).

So the 49ers could struggle to run — and they also might struggle to pass protect without Williams and Brunskill. Given how good he is as a blocker, it’s probable that the 49ers will even use TE George Kittle more in pass protection to compensate for their weakness on the edge without Williams, which is a good idea in theory — but it means that Kittle will be running fewer routes, which is bad overall.

We see the Rams as having a significant edge over the 49ers in this trench matchup (per our FantasyPros unit power rankings).

Rank Defensive Line Opp OL OL Rank Edge
2 LAR SF 18 16

 

If the 49ers can’t run, and if they struggle to protect QB Jimmy Garoppolo, they will have very little going for them on offense — and we saw what that looked like in Week 3, when they scored just 10 points against the Broncos on Sunday Night Football.

This line was Rams -0.5 in the offseason, and I still think they should be favored.

Best Line: Rams +2.5 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Rams +2.5 (-110)
Personal Projection:
Rams -0.25
Limit: Rams +1.5


Freedman's 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests

The five spreads I've highlighted above are the ones that right (right now) I'm leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.

Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.

  • Bears +3.5 at Giants
  • Cardinals +2.5 at Panthers
  • Broncos +2.5 at Raiders
  • Buccaneers +1.5 vs. Chiefs
  • Rams +2.5 at 49ers

Also in consideration are:

  • Dolphins +4.5 at Bengals
  • Lions -4.5 vs. Seahawks
  • Titans +3.5 at Colts
  • Ravens +3.5 vs. Bills
  • Packers -9.5 vs. Patriots

Look for my tweet update on Sunday before kickoff.

UPDATE (Sun. 10/2): Here’s the tweet.


Week 3 Record

  • Picks in BettingPros tracker: 7-6 (+0.47 units)
  • Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 4-1

Year-to-Date Record

  • Picks in BettingPros tracker: 19-12-1 (+5.86 units)
  • Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 11-4

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