Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 6 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets

In this article each week, I'll present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that - as of writing on Wednesday - I'm most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I'll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.

All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.

Freedman's Week 6 Projections Against the Spread

Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 6 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented - along with my projected lines and edges - from the perspective of the home team.

Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Oct. 12, 5:30 pm ET. 

Home Team Road Team Consensus Line Freedman Line Projected Edge
CHI WAS 1 -3 -4
MIA MIN 3.5 4 0.5
CLE NE -3 -1.75 1.25
ATL SF 5.5 4.25 -1.25
NO CIN 1.5 1.5 0
GB NYJ -7 -9 -2
IND JAX -1.5 -2.5 -1
PIT TB 8 6.75 -1.25
NYG BAL 5.5 4.75 -0.75
SEA ARI 2.5 0 -2.5
LAR CAR -10.5 -9.25 1.25
KC BUF 2.5 -1 -3.5
PHI DAL -6 -6.75 -0.75
LAC DEN -5.5 -3.75 1.75

 

Based on my current projections, I'm willing to bet on five teams at their consensus lines right now.

  • Bears +1 vs. Commanders
  • Patriots +3 at Browns
  • Packers -7 vs. Jets
  • Seahawks +2.5 vs. Cardinals
  • Chiefs +2.5 vs. Bills

Freedman's Week 6 ATS Bet Breakdowns

Here are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.


Washington Commanders at Chicago Bears

Check out our Commanders at Bears matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Thursday, Oct. 13, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
  • Location: Soldier Field
  • TV: Prime

Commanders at Bears: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Commanders -1
  • Over/Under: 38
  • Moneyline: Commanders -110, Bears -110

Commanders at Bears: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 12

  • Spread: Bears - 66% bets, 78% money
  • Over/Under: Under - 65% bets, 83% money
  • Moneyline: Bears - 58% bets, 61% money

Commanders at Bears: Injuries

Commanders: Week 6 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Mon Tue Wed Game Status
Percy Butler SAF Quad DNP DNP DNP Out
Sam Cosmi OT Finger DNP DNP DNP Out
Jahan Dotson WR Hamstring DNP DNP DNP Out
Logan Thomas TE Calf LP DNP DNP Out
Jonathan Williams RB Knee DNP DNP DNP Out
William Jackson CB Back FP LP DNP Out
Dyami Brown WR Groin LP LP LP Questionable

 

Commanders: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Willie Beavers G IR
Milo Eifler LB IR
Curtis Hodges TE IR
Phidarian Mathis DT IR
Chase Roullier C IR
Wes Schweitzer G IR
Chase Young DE PUP

 

Commanders Injury News

Bears: Week 6 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Mon Tue Wed Game Status
Dane Cruikshank DB Hamstring FP FP FP Questionable

 

Bears: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Matt Adams LB IR
Dakota Dozier OL IR
Doug Kramer OL IR
David Moore WR IR
Byron Pringle WR IR
Tajae Sharpe WR IR
Cody Whitehair OL IR
Tavon Young DB IR
Alex Leatherwood OL NFI

 

Bears Injury News

Commanders at Bears: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Commanders Trends

  • 2022 Commanders: 1-4 ATS (54.3% ROI for faders)
  • QB Carson Wentz: 25-36 ATS (14.9% ROI for faders) in the post-hype 2018-22 era
  • QB Carson Wentz: 13-21 ATS (19.2% ROI for faders) as favorite in the post-hype 2018-22 era

Bears Trends

  • 2022 Bears: 2-3 ATS (15.2% ROI for faders)
  • QB Justin Fields: 5-10 ATS (28.7% ROI for faders) for career

Commanders at Bears: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football ReferenceRegular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Commanders Offense vs. Bears Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.092 28 0.059 23 -5
Total SR 38.2% 30 47.6% 28 -2
Total DVOA -19.2% 30 4.1% 18 -12
Dropback EPA -0.06 26 0.132 25 -1
Dropback SR 41.3% 27 49.7% 26 -1
Pass DVOA -8.8% 28 8.1% 15 -13
Adj. Sack Rate 9.8% 29 5.6% 24 -5
Rush EPA -0.172 27 -0.020 22 -5
Rush SR 30.4% 32 45.4% 23 -9
Rush DVOA -26.1% 31 0.5% 25 -6
Adj. Line Yards 3.78 32 4.70 24 -8
Yards per Play 5 24 5.6 18 -6
Points per Game 18 26 21.2 15 -11

 

Bears Offense vs. Commanders Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.029 21 0.031 15 -6
Total SR 36.9% 32 40.5% 6 -26
Total DVOA -18.6% 29 4.2% 19 -10
Dropback EPA 0.014 20 0.155 26 6
Dropback SR 38.3% 31 44.6% 14 -17
Pass DVOA -17.1% 30 20.6% 29 -1
Adj. Sack Rate 16.4% 32 9.6% 4 -28
Rush EPA -0.071 22 -0.161 5 -17
Rush SR 35.6% 28 34.1% 4 -24
Rush DVOA -9.4% 20 -17.8% 6 -14
Adj. Line Yards 4.35 19 4.19 9 -10
Yards per Play 5.2 21 5.6 18 -3
Points per Game 17.2 27 25.6 25 -2

 

Commanders at Bears: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 80 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Carson Wentz

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.017 27
AY/A 6.3 21
QBR 38.2 24
ATS Value vs. Avg. -0.7 25

 

Career: Carson Wentz

  • AY/A: 6.8
  • QB Elo per Game: -4.5

2022: Justin Fields

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.006 29
AY/A 6.4 19
QBR 37.1 25
ATS Value vs. Avg. -2.6 37

 

Career: Justin Fields

  • AY/A: 5.9
  • QB Elo per Game: -108.2

Key Matchup: Bears Pass Defense vs. Commanders Pass Offense

The Bears don’t have a lot going for them organizationally, but at least their pass defense has been good this year — better than the pass offense for the Commanders.

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
Pass DVOA -8.8% 28 8.1% 15 -13

 

Even though QB Carson Wentz has 1,390 yards and 10 touchdowns passing, he has also continued his tradition of throwing back-breaking interceptions (6) and been careless with the ball (six fumbles) while taking way too many sacks (20, behind only aging statues Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford at 21).

And in this game he’ll be without five starters: WR Jahan Dotson (hamstring), TE Logan Thomas (calf), C Chase Roullier (knee, IR), RG Wes Schweitzer (concussion, IR) and RT Samuel Cosmi (thumb).

Wentz without two of his best red-zone receivers and the entire right side of his offensive line? Yeah, he might struggle.

Best Line: Bears +1 (-110, Caesars)
First Recommended: Bears +1 (-110)
Personal Projection:
Bears -3
Limit: Bears -1

Side Note: By the way, if you like a shorter underdog, historically it has been more profitable to bet it on the moneyline than against the spread. This has been the case for underdogs of less than a touchdown.

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>


New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns

Check out our Patriots at Browns matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022, 1 pm ET
  • Location: FirstEnergy Stadium
  • TV: CBS

Patriots at Browns: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Browns -3
  • Over/Under: 43.5
  • Moneyline: Browns -150, Patriots +126

Patriots at Browns: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 12

  • Spread: Browns - 37% bets, 50% money
  • Over/Under: Over - 75% bets, 84% money
  • Moneyline: Browns - 40% bets, 60% money

Patriots at Browns: Injuries

Patriots: Week 6 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Nelson Agholor WR Hamstring LP
David Andrews C Back LP
Lawrence Guy DE Shoulder LP
Damien Harris RB Hamstring LP
Jonathan Jones CB Ankle LP
Mac Jones QB Ankle LP
Raekwon McMillan MLB Thumb LP
Jakobi Meyers WR Knee LP
Jalen Mills CB Hamstring LP
DaMarcus Mitchell DE Concussion LP
Jonnu Smith TE Ankle LP

 

Patriots: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Yodny Cajuste OL IR
Brian Hoyer QB IR
Ty Montgomery RB IR
Ronnie Perkins LB IR
Kristian Wilkerson WR IR
Joejuan Williams CB IR
Quinn Nordin K NFI
Andrew Stueber OL NFI
Malcolm Perry WR Retired
James White RB Retired

 

Patriots Injury News

Browns: Week 6 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Joel Bitonio G Elbow DNP
Jadeveon Clowney DE Ankle, Knee, Elbow DNP
Amari Cooper WR Not Injury Related – Rest DNP
Ronnie Harrison DB Illness DNP
Denzel Ward CB Concussion DNP
Taven Bryan DT Hamstring LP
Myles Garrett DE Shoulder, Biceps, Hand LP
Perrion Winfrey DT Ankle LP
Demetric Felton RB Wrist FP

 

Browns: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Deion Jones MLB IR-Return
Greedy Williams CB IR-Return
Dawson Deaton G IR
Jerome Ford RB IR
Jakeem Grant Sr. WR IR
Nick Harris C IR
Jesse James TE IR
Chris Odom DE IR
Anthony Walker Jr. LB IR
Stephen Weatherly DE IR
Isaiah Weston WR IR
Chase Winovich DE IR
Deshaun Watson QB Suspended

 

Browns Injury News

Patriots at Browns: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Patriots Trends

  • 2022 Patriots: 2-2-1 ATS (-3% ROI)
  • HC Bill Belichick: 6-2 ATS (46.2% ROI) in #RevengeGame vs. Browns
  • HC Bill Belichick: 26-13-2 ATS (29.6% ROI) as road underdog

Browns Trends

  • 2022 Browns: 2-3 ATS (15.2% ROI for faders)
  • HC Kevin Stefanski: 8-16 ATS (28.2% ROI for faders) as favorite

Patriots at Browns: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football ReferenceRegular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Patriots Offense vs. Browns Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.014 15 0.123 30 15
Total SR 47.5% 7 44.7% 18 11
Total DVOA -4.5% 22 13.9% 30 8
Dropback EPA -0.019 23 0.078 15 -8
Dropback SR 47.9% 11 43.4% 10 -1
Pass DVOA -2.9% 26 8.6% 16 -10
Adj. Sack Rate 7.3% 21 5.8% 22 1
Rush EPA 0.055 2 0.191 32 30
Rush SR 47.0% 6 46.7% 29 23
Rush DVOA 6.3% 11 20.5% 32 21
Adj. Line Yards 5.07 3 5.32 32 29
Yards per Play 5.8 9 6 25 16
Points per Game 20.6 19 25 23 4

 

Browns Offense vs. Patriots Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.129 3 -0.047 9 6
Total SR 46.9% 10 45.2% 20 10
Total DVOA 16.3% 4 -3.6% 9 5
Dropback EPA 0.103 10 -0.11 9 -1
Dropback SR 46.8% 17 41.9% 6 -11
Pass DVOA 23.7% 10 -11.5% 8 -2
Adj. Sack Rate 3.9% 4 8.2% 9 5
Rush EPA 0.157 1 0.048 27 26
Rush SR 47.1% 5 50.0% 30 25
Rush DVOA 15.4% 1 6.7% 28 27
Adj. Line Yards 4.90 6 4.65 21 15
Yards per Play 5.7 12 5.5 14 2
Points per Game 26.6 6 19.6 12 6

 

Patriots at Browns: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 80 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Bailey Zappe

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE N/A N/A
AY/A N/A N/A
QBR N/A N/A
ATS Value vs. Avg. -3.4 39

 

Career: Bailey Zappe

  • AY/A: 7.8
  • QB Elo per Game: -28.4

2022: Jacoby Brissett

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.12 8
AY/A 6.4 19
QBR 65.9 6
ATS Value vs. Avg. -0.2 19

 

Career: Jacoby Brissett

  • AY/A: 6.4
  • QB Elo per Game: -29.9

Key Matchup: RB Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Browns Defense

In a game with two teams that want to run the ball, the Browns have the worse rush defense — and that’s because they have the league’s worst rush defense.

Meanwhile, the Patriots are top-six in most run efficiency metrics.

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
Rush EPA 0.055 2 0.191 32 30
Rush SR 47.0% 6 46.7% 29 23
Rush DVOA 6.3% 11 20.5% 32 21
Adj. Line Yards 5.07 3 5.32 32 29

 

RB Damien Harris (hamstring) — despite “practicing” limitedly on Wednesday — is highly unlikely to play this weekend …

… but his absence probably won’t matter given that the Patriots still have RB Rhamondre Stevenson, who has been the leader in the backfield for the past month with a 55% snap rate in each game.

In that time, Stevenson is 60-347-1 rushing and also a nice 11-69-0 receiving on 14 targets. A three-down back, Stevenson is likely to see consistent checkdowns from third-string rookie QB Bailey Zappe — and the Browns are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against running backs (35.1%).

On the ground and through the air, Stevenson could dominate the Browns.

Last week, Stevenson went off with 175 yards on 25 carries and two targets with a 90% snap rate, and in his six career games with at least 15 opportunities (carries plus targets) he has averaged 110.7 yards and 0.83 touchdowns.

With Stevenson carrying the Patriots, they should be able to slow down the game and keep the score close.

Best Line: Patriots +3 (-114, FanDuel)
First Recommended: Patriots +3.5 (-110)
Personal Projection:
Patriots +1.75
Limit: Patriots +3 (-120)


New York Jets at Green Bay Packers

Check out our Jets at Packers matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022, 1 pm ET
  • Location: Lambeau Field
  • TV: FOX

Jets at Packers: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Packers -7
  • Over/Under: 45.5
  • Moneyline: Packers -335, Jets +260

Jets at Packers: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 12

  • Spread: Jets - 55% bets, 64% money
  • Over/Under: Under - 22% bets, 23% money
  • Moneyline: Jets - 14% bets, 26% money

Jets at Packers: Injuries

Jets: Week 6 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Jermaine Johnson II DE Ankle DNP
Duane Brown OT Shoulder LP
Carl Lawson OLB Ankle LP
C.J. Mosley ILB Hip LP
Quincy Williams ILB Ankle LP

 

Jets: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Nick Bawden FB IR
Mekhi Becton T IR
Vinny Curry DL IR
George Fant T IR
Max Mitchell OL IR
Greg Senat OL NFI

 

Jets Injury News

Packers: Week 6 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Tipa Galeai LB Hamstring DNP
Aaron Rodgers QB Right Thumb DNP
Christian Watson WR Hamstring DNP
David Bakhtiari OT Knee LP
Elgton Jenkins G Knee LP
Devonte Wyatt DT Quadricep LP

 

Packers: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Krys Barnes LB IR
Sammy Watkins WR IR
Caleb Jones T NFI
Kylin Hill RB PUP

 

Packers Injury News

Jets at Packers: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Jets Trends

  • 2022 Jets: 3-2 ATS (14.9% ROI)
  • HC Robert Saleh: 8-13 ATS (23.1% ROI for faders) as underdog

Packers Trends

  • 2022 Packers: 2-3 ATS (14.6% ROI for faders)
  • QB Aaron Rodgers: 40-21-1 ATS (28.2% ROI) off loss
  • QB Aaron Rodgers: 66-35-3 ATS (26.5% ROI) at home
  • QB Aaron Rodgers: 97-66-3 ATS (16.1% ROI) as favorite

Jets at Packers: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football ReferenceRegular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Jets Offense vs. Packers Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.034 23 0.034 16 -7
Total SR 41.1% 25 46.8% 26 1
Total DVOA -3.5% 21 7.1% 23 2
Dropback EPA -0.037 24 0.019 10 -14
Dropback SR 42.8% 23 43.9% 13 -10
Pass DVOA 1.6% 19 2.2% 11 -8
Adj. Sack Rate 6.6% 16 8.2% 8 -8
Rush EPA -0.026 17 0.052 28 11
Rush SR 37.4% 27 50.4% 32 5
Rush DVOA -0.7% 14 12.4% 30 16
Adj. Line Yards 4.27 21 5.26 31 10
Yards per Play 5.2 21 5.5 14 -7
Points per Game 23.2 11 19.2 11 0

 

Packers Offense vs. Jets Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.02 14 0.043 19 5
Total SR 48.3% 5 46.1% 22 17
Total DVOA 13.4% 8 5.4% 21 13
Dropback EPA 0.039 18 0.109 23 5
Dropback SR 47.9% 11 46.2% 18 7
Pass DVOA 16.9% 13 13.9% 23 10
Adj. Sack Rate 6.0% 13 7.1% 11 -2
Rush EPA -0.006 10 -0.051 18 8
Rush SR 48.9% 2 45.8% 25 23
Rush DVOA 12.4% 3 -4.7% 19 16
Adj. Line Yards 5.23 2 4.35 10 8
Yards per Play 5.7 12 5.2 9 -3
Points per Game 19.4 22 23.6 18 -4

 

Jets at Packers: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 80 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Zach Wilson

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE N/A N/A
AY/A N/A N/A
QBR N/A N/A
ATS Value vs. Avg. -2.3 36

 

Career: Zach Wilson

  • AY/A: 5.5
  • QB Elo per Game: -120.9

2022: Aaron Rodgers

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.089 12
AY/A 7 14
QBR 44.6 20
ATS Value vs. Avg. 2.8 5

 

Career: Aaron Rodgers

  • AY/A: 8.4
  • QB Elo per Game: 81.7

Key Matchup: Packers Pass Defense vs. Jets Pass Offense

QB Zach Wilson has been somewhat mediocre for the Jets in his two starts this year (6.9 AY/A) — but this is a comedown spot for the Jets and a bounceback spot for the Packers, who have a clear advantage on defense against Wilson in our FantasyPros unit power rankings.

Rank Quarterback Offense Opp Defense Defense Rank Secondary Rank QB-Def Edge QB-Sec Edge
26 Zach Wilson NYJ GB 8 4 -18 -22

 

And that same edge is extended against his pass catchers …

Rank WRs & TEs Opp Secondary Secondary Rank Edge
18 NYJ GB 4 -14

 

… and also his offensive line, which is down three tackles: Mekhi Becton (knee, IR), George Fant (knee, IR) and Max Mitchell (knee, IR).

Rank Offensive Line Opp DL DL Rank Edge
28 NYJ GB 6 -22

 

Under steady pressure from EDGEs Rashan Gary and Preston Smith, Wilson seems likely to regress toward his 2021 form this week.

Best Line: Packers -7 (-115, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Packers -9 (-110), ouch
Personal Projection:
Packers -9
Limit: Packers -7 (-120)

View our Pick of the Day in the BettingPros mobile app (free!) >>


Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Check out our Cardinals at Seahawks matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
  • Location: Lumen Field
  • TV: FOX

Cardinals at Seahawks: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Cardinals -2.5
  • Over/Under: 50.5
  • Moneyline: Cardinals -144, Seahawks +122

Cardinals at Seahawks: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 12

  • Spread: Cardinals - 49% bets, 53% money
  • Over/Under: Over - 48% bets, 70% money
  • Moneyline: Seahawks - 46% bets, 78% money

Cardinals at Seahawks: Injuries

Cardinals: Week 6 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
James Conner RB Ribs DNP
Rodney Hudson OL Knee DNP
Trayvon Mullen CB Hamstring DNP
Matt Prater K Right Hip DNP
Darrel Williams RB Knee DNP
Max Garcia OL Toe LP
Dennis Gardeck LB Ankle LP
Sean Harlow OL Ankle LP
D.J. Humprhies OL Hamstring LP
Rashard Lawrence DL Hand LP
Justin Pugh OL Elbow LP

 

Cardinals: IR, PUP & Out

Player # Pos Status
Colt McCoy 12 QB IR-Return
Antoine Wesley 13 WR IR-Return
Tae Daley 48 S IR
Cody Ford 72 OL IR
Marquis Hayes 78 OL IR
Joshua Miles 66 OL IR
Nick Vigil 59 ILB IR
Jonathan Ward 29 RB IR
Charles Washington 28 S IR
DeAndre Hopkins 10 WR Suspended

 

Cardinals Injury News

Seahawks: Week 6 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Dee Eskridge WR Illness DNP
Penny Hart WR Hamstring DNP
Dareke Young WR Quadriceps DNP
Shelby Harris DE Hip DNP
Gabe Jackson G Knee/Hip DNP
Rashaad Penny RB Ankle DNP
Al Woods NT Knee DNP
Marquise Goodwin WR Knee/Back FP
Kenneth Walker RB Shoulder FP
Justin Coleman CB Calf FP

 

Seahawks: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
L.J. Collier DE IR-Return
Jamal Adams SS IR
Travis Homer RB IR
Darryl Johnson LB IR
Tyler Ott LS IR
John Reid CB IR
Alton Robinson LB IR
Tyreke Smith LB IR
Cody Thompson WR IR
Tre Brown CB PUP
Ben Burr-Kirven LB PUP
Jon Rhattigan LB PUP

 

Seahawks Injury News

Cardinals at Seahawks: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Cardinals Trends

  • 2022 Cardinals: 3-2 ATS (14.5% ROI)
  • HC Kliff Kingsbury: 19-6-2 ATS (44.2% ROI) on road
  • HC Kliff Kingsbury: 8-14 ATS (22.5% ROI for faders) as favorite

Seahawks Trends

  • 2022 Seahawks: 2-3 ATS (15.4% ROI for faders)
  • HC Pete Carroll: 55-40-3 ATS (12.7% ROI) at home
  • HC Pete Carroll: 43-28-3 ATS (17.6% ROI) as underdog
  • HC Pete Carroll: 16-8 ATS (31.0% ROI) as home underdog

Cardinals at Seahawks: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football ReferenceRegular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Cardinals Offense vs. Seahawks Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.006 18 0.173 31 13
Total SR 44.2% 17 46.2% 23 6
Total DVOA -5.6% 23 15.4% 31 8
Dropback EPA 0.017 19 0.307 32 13
Dropback SR 43.9% 21 50.0% 28 7
Pass DVOA -0.8% 23 31.4% 31 8
Adj. Sack Rate 4.7% 7 5.1% 28 21
Rush EPA -0.014 14 0.023 25 11
Rush SR 44.7% 8 41.9% 17 9
Rush DVOA -3.5% 16 0.0% 24 8
Adj. Line Yards 4.58 11 5.12 30 19
Yards per Play 4.9 26 6.6 32 6
Points per Game 21 18 30.8 31 13

 

Seahawks Offense vs. Cardinals Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.12 4 0.062 24 20
Total SR 47.1% 9 50.5% 31 22
Total DVOA 21.3% 1 8.6% 26 25
Dropback EPA 0.173 4 0.177 28 24
Dropback SR 52.2% 3 53.3% 32 29
Pass DVOA 45.1% 1 19.6% 27 26
Adj. Sack Rate 6.7% 17 3.4% 32 15
Rush EPA 0.024 6 -0.139 7 1
Rush SR 37.9% 23 45.5% 24 1
Rush DVOA 5.3% 12 -9.1% 12 0
Adj. Line Yards 4.52 15 4.68 22 7
Yards per Play 6.6 2 5.9 22 20
Points per Game 25.4 7 24.6 22 15

 

Cardinals at Seahawks: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 80 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Kyler Murray

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.051 21
AY/A 5.7 29
QBR 52.1 13
ATS Value vs. Avg. 2.3 7

 

Career: Kyler Murray

  • AY/A: 7.0
  • QB Elo per Game: 66.5

2022: Geno Smith

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.189 3
AY/A 8.9 2
QBR 74.8 4
ATS Value vs. Avg. 1.5 10

 

Career: Geno Smith

  • AY/A: 6.3
  • QB Elo per Game: -45.9

Key Matchup: Seahawks Pass Offense vs. Cardinals Pass Defense

Going back to last season, when he made three spot starts for the injured Russell Wilson, QB Geno Smith has a top-three 8.5 AY/A and 0.154 composite EPA + CPOE.

Right now the world is Smith’s kitchen, and he’s cooking. For the season, the Seahawks are top-four in most pass efficiency metrics, and the Cardinals defense is bottom-six.

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
Dropback EPA 0.173 4 0.177 28 24
Dropback SR 52.2% 3 53.3% 32 29
Pass DVOA 45.1% 1 19.6% 27 26

 

It helps that he has a top-10 pass-catching unit anchored by WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who have a massive edge over an outmatched secondary in our FantasyPros unit power rankings.

Rank WRs & TEs Opp Secondary Secondary Rank Edge
10 SEA ARI 30 20

 

As wild as this is to say — because we have Cardinals QB Kyler Murray ranked as the No. 9 player at his position — Smith has been every bit as good as (and maybe better than?) Murray through five games, thanks in large part to the playmaking support of his receivers and the play-calling support of his coaches.

Given how well Smith has played to open the year — and how bad the Cardinals secondary has been — it’s hard to see why the Seahawks are home underdogs, especially against a divisional opponent.

Best Line: Seahawks +3 (-125, Caesars)
First Recommended: Seahawks +3 (-125)
Personal Projection:
Pick’Em
Limit: Seahawks +2


Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

Check out our Bills at Chiefs matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
  • Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
  • TV: CBS

Bills at Chiefs: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Bills -2.5
  • Over/Under: 54
  • Moneyline: Bills -145, Chiefs +125

Bills at Chiefs: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 12

  • Spread: Chiefs - 66% bets, 69% money
  • Over/Under: Under - 15% bets, 42% money
  • Moneyline: Bills - 36% bets, 53% money

Bills at Chiefs: Injuries

Bills: Week 6 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Jake Kumerow WR Ankle DNP
Rodger Saffold G Vet Rest DNP
Taiwan Jones RB Knee DNP
Christian Benford CB Hand LP
DaQuan Jones DE Hip LP
Dawson Knox TE Foot/Hamstring LP
Jordan Phillips DT Hamstring LP
Jordan Poyer FS Ribs LP
Kaiir Elam CB Foot LP
Mitch Morse C Elbow LP
Tremaine Edmunds MLB Hamstring LP
Von Miller OLB Ret Rest LP
Cam Lewis CB Forearm FP
Ed Oliver DT Ankle FP
Isaiah McKenzie WR Concussion FP

 

Bills: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Jamison Crowder WR IR
Tommy Doyle T IR
Micah Hyde S IR
Marquez Stevenson WR IR
Ike Boettger G PUP
Tre’Davious White CB PUP
Andre Smith LB Suspended

 

Bills Injury News

Chiefs: Week 6 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Bryan Cook SAF Concussion DNP
Rashad Fenton DB Hamstring DNP
Chris Lammons DB Hip DNP
Tershawn Wharton DE Knee DNP
Harrison Butker K Left Ankle LP
Frank Clark DE Illness LP
Michael Danna DE Calf LP
Travis Kelce TE Hip/Back FP
Nick Bolton LB Quad FP
Mecole Hardman WR Heel FP
Skyy Moore WR Ankle FP
Trey Smith G Pectoral FP
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Hamstring/Quad FP

 

Chiefs: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Trent McDuffie CB IR-Return
Blake Bell TE IR
Justyn Ross WR IR
Lucas Niang OL PUP
Jerrion Ealy WR/RB Suspended
Willie Gay LB Suspended

 

Chiefs Injury News

Bills at Chiefs: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Bills Trends

  • 2022 Bills: 3-2 ATS (13.9% ROI)
  • QB Josh Allen: 19-10-2 ATS (24.3% ROI)

Chiefs Trends

  • 2022 Chiefs: 2-3 ATS (16.4% ROI for faders)
  • QB Patrick Mahomes: 7-0-1 ATS (85.4% ROI) as underdog
  • QB Patrick Mahomes: 6-2 ML (89.3% ROI) as underdog
  • QB Patrick Mahomes: 14-17-1 ATS (6.1% ROI for faders) at home
  • HC Andy Reid: 3-1 ATS (45.3% ROI) vs. Josh Allen

Bills at Chiefs: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football ReferenceRegular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Bills Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.18 2 0.038 17 15
Total SR 50.2% 2 46.2% 23 21
Total DVOA 14.9% 7 3.3% 15 8
Dropback EPA 0.327 1 0.086 19 18
Dropback SR 54.9% 1 47.4% 21 20
Pass DVOA 40.6% 3 11.5% 19 16
Adj. Sack Rate 4.8% 8 7.8% 10 2
Rush EPA -0.206 28 -0.076 14 -14
Rush SR 37.8% 24 43.4% 20 -4
Rush DVOA -24.2% 30 -12.6% 8 -22
Adj. Line Yards 3.95 28 4.37 13 -15
Yards per Play 6.7 1 5.3 11 10
Points per Game 30.4 2 25 23 21

 

Chiefs Offense vs. Bills Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.212 1 -0.144 2 1
Total SR 50.6% 1 42.6% 11 10
Total DVOA 18.6% 3 -21.8% 2 -1
Dropback EPA 0.322 2 -0.154 2 0
Dropback SR 54.8% 2 45.4% 17 15
Pass DVOA 37.3% 4 -21.5% 6 2
Adj. Sack Rate 4.8% 9 8.6% 7 -2
Rush EPA 0.004 9 -0.126 9 0
Rush SR 42.7% 13 36.9% 9 -4
Rush DVOA -8.1% 19 -22.3% 3 -16
Adj. Line Yards 4.39 18 3.32 1 -17
Yards per Play 5.8 9 4.4 2 -7
Points per Game 31.8 1 12.2 1 0

 

Bills at Chiefs: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 80 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Josh Allen

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.196 1
AY/A 8.8 3
QBR 78.5 2
ATS Value vs. Avg. 6.3 1

 

Career: Josh Allen

  • AY/A: 7.2
  • QB Elo per Game: 67.6

2022: Patrick Mahomes

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.193 2
AY/A 8.5 4
QBR 78.5 2
ATS Value vs. Avg. 4.8 2

 

Career: Patrick Mahomes

  • AY/A: 8.7
  • QB Elo per Game: 117.9

Key Matchup: TE Travis Kelce vs. Bills Pass Defense

TE Travis Kelce is one of my Week 6 fantasy favorites, and I think he’s the key to this game for the Chiefs.

With a rebuilt wide receiver unit, Kelce has predictably been the top pass catcher for the Chiefs, ranking No. 1 on the team with 42 targets and 33-347-7 receiving. Instead of pushing the ball downfield this year, QB Patrick Mahomes has taken what the defense has given him, meticulously moving the ball with a ruthless efficiency — and it’s hard to argue with the results, as the Chiefs rank No. 1 in offensive EPA per play (0.212) and total SR (50.6%) as well as points per game (31.8).

And Kelce has been a big driver of the Chiefs’ “break them by bending them” offensive approach. With his pass-catching dominance, he’s basically a middle-of-the-field cheat code — and I think he could go off against the Bills secondary.

As good as the Bills defense is, it has been perfectly content this year to allow opposing offenses to move down the field play by play via the passing game — and that’s a major strength of the Chiefs.

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
Dropback SR 54.8% 2 45.4% 17 15

 

If the Bills invite Mahomes to target receivers on non-contested short and intermediate routes, he’ll do it all game long — and that means a lot of Kelce.

At least it meant that last year, when Kelce had 14-153-2 receiving on 19 targets against the Bills in two games.

And the Bills pass defense isn’t even close to full strength. In the past, No. 1 CB Tre’Davious White (knee, PUP) has sometimes matched up with Kelce, but he won’t be active for this game as he continues to work his way back from injury.

On top of that, FS Micah Hyde (neck, IR) is out and SS Jordan Poyer (ribs), CB Christian Benford (hand) and LB Tremaine Edmunds (hamstring) are uncertain after missing Week 5.

With Kelce operating against an injured pass defense, I think the Chiefs will pull off the upset.

Best Line: Chiefs +3 (-120, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Chiefs +1 (-110), ouch
Personal Projection:
Chiefs -1
Limit: Chiefs +1

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Freedman's 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests

Here are the five spread bets that (right now) I'm leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.

  • Vikings -2.5 at Dolphins
  • Ravens -4.5 at Giants
  • Seahawks +2.5 vs. Cardinals
  • Chiefs +2.5 vs. Bills
  • Eagles -4.5 vs. Cowboys

Also in consideration are:

  • Falcons +5.5 vs. 49ers
  • Packers -7.5 vs. Jets
  • Steelers +7.5 vs. Buccaneers
  • Panthers +10.5 at Rams
  • Broncos +5.5 at Chargers

A quick note on Week 5: Last week in this article I highlighted Lions +3 and Chiefs -7 and then said that I was leaning toward them in the DraftKings contest respectively at +2.5 and -7.5.

But I also said this: “I don't love that I'm off the key numbers of +3 and -7 with the Lions and Chiefs. I might pivot away from those picks.”

And Browns +3.5 and Bengals +3.5 were the teams I planned to pivot to because of my projections and the value they offered relative to the market.

But like a moron I decided to wait until Sunday to make that change — so that I could have full information before making my decision — and then I ran out of time on Sunday and failed to pivot … because my computer froze 10 minutes before the 1 pm ET kickoff, and I still needed to finish tweaking my fantasy rankings. So I quickly updated my rankings after my computer rebooted instead of updating my DraftKings entry.

Indeed, that was a sizable error. Instead of a livable 3-2, I was a deplorable 1-4.

I’m not bringing this up to say, “Hey, I’m better than my record.” No excuses. I went 1-4 last week, and it’s all my fault.

I’m bringing this up to say, “Hey, if you’re in a similar situation on Sundays, where you’ve got a lot of things to do and might find yourself in a time crunch, go ahead and make any updates now (or on Saturday night) that you think you might want to make on Sunday morning. Just do it in advance, so you can avoid any potential issues in the future.”

That’s not the way I wanted to learn that lesson, but it has been learned.

UPDATE (Sun. 10/16): Here's the tweet.


Week 5 Record

  • Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 5-6 (-1.72 units)
  • Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 1-4

Year-to-Date Record

  • Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 32-26-1 (+3.35 units)
  • Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 13-12

Previous Best Bets Pieces

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