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Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 7 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets

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In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that - as of writing on Wednesday - I'm most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I'll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.

All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.

Freedman's Week 7 Projections Against the Spread

Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 7 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented - along with my projected lines and edges - from the perspective of the home team.

Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Oct. 19, 3:00 pm ET. 

Home Team Road Team Consensus Line Freedman Line Projected Edge
ARI NO -2 0 2
BAL CLE -6.5 -7.25 -0.75
CIN ATL -6 -5.5 0.5
DAL DET -7 -5.5 1.5
WAS GB 5.5 4.25 -1.25
CAR TB 10.5 10 -0.5
JAX NYG -3 -1.25 1.75
TEN IND -2.5 -1.75 0.75
LV HOU -7 -7.5 -0.5
DEN NYJ -1 -2.25 -1.25
SF KC 3 2.5 -0.5
LAC SEA -6.5 -6.5 0
MIA PIT -7 -7.75 -0.75
NE CHI -8 -7 1

 

Based on my current projections, I'm willing to bet on five teams at their consensus lines right now.

  • Saints +2 at Cardinals
  • Ravens -6.5 vs. Browns
  • Lions +7 at Cowboys
  • Giants +3 at Jaguars
  • Dolphins -7 vs. Steelers

Freedman's Week 7 ATS Bet Breakdowns

Here are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals

Check out our Saints at Cardinals matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Thursday, Oct. 20, 2022, 8:15 pm ET
  • Location: State Farm Stadium
  • TV: PRIME

Saints at Cardinals: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Cardinals -2
  • Over/Under: 44
  • Moneyline: Cardinals -130, Saints +110

Saints at Cardinals: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 19

  • Spread: Saints - 32% bets, 40% money
  • Over/Under: Under - 46% bets, 80% money
  • Moneyline: Saints - 31% bets, 74% money

Saints at Cardinals: Injuries

Saints: Week 6 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Mon Tue Wed Game Status
Michael Thomas WR Foot DNP DNP DNP Out
Jarvis Landry WR Ankle DNP DNP DNP Out
Andrus Peat G Chest DNP DNP DNP Out
Adam Trautman TE Ankle DNP DNP DNP Out
Marshon Lattimore CB Abdomen DNP DNP DNP Out
Keith Kirkwood WR Ankle DNP DNP LP Questionable
Paulson Adebo CB Knee LP LP LP Questionable
Calvin Throckmorton OT Hip LP LP LP Questionable
Payton Turner DE Chest LP LP LP Questionable

 

Saints: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Ethan Greenidge OL IR
Deonte Harty WR/RS IR
Albert Huggins DT IR
D’Marco Jackson LB IR
Forrest Lamp OL IR
Smoke Monday SAF IR
Trevor Penning OT IR
Alontae Taylor CB IR
P.J. Williams CB IR
Dylan Soehner TE PUP

 

Saints Injury News

Cardinals: Week 6 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Mon Tue Wed Game Status
Marquise Brown WR Foot DNP DNP DNP Out
Dennis Gardeck LB Ankle DNP DNP DNP Out
Rodney Hudson C Knee DNP DNP DNP Out
Justin Pugh G Knee DNP DNP DNP Out
Darrel Williams RB Knee DNP DNP DNP Out
James Conner RB Ribs DNP DNP DNP Questionable
Matt Prater K Right Hip DNP DNP DNP Questionable
Jalen Thompson FS Hamstring DNP LP LP Questionable
Trayvon Mullen CB Hamstring LP LP LP Questionable

 

Cardinals: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Tae Daley S IR
Marquis Hayes OL IR
Joshua Miles OL IR
Nick Vigil ILB IR
Jonathan Ward RB IR
Charles Washington S IR
Cody Ford OL IR-DFR
Antoine Wesley WR IR-DFR

 

Cardinals Injury News

Saints at Cardinals: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Saints Trends

  • 2022 Saints: 2-4 ATS (26.0% ROI for faders)
  • 2022 Saints: 2-1 ATS (27.5% ROI) with QB Andy Dalton
  • 2022 Road Underdogs: 31-21 ATS (13.7% ROI)

Cardinals Trends

  • 2022 Cardinals: 3-3 ATS (-4.5 ROI)
  • HC Kliff Kingsbury: 8-15 ATS (25.7% ROI for faders) as favorite
  • HC Kliff Kingsbury: 10-13 ML (67.7% ROI for faders) as favorite
  • HC Kliff Kingsbury: 10-17 ATS (21.1% ROI for faders) at home
  • HC Kliff Kingsbury: 9-17-1 ML (45.8% ROI for faders) at home
  • HC Kliff Kingsbury: 4-11 ATS (40.7% ROI for faders) as home favorite
  • HC Kliff Kingsbury: 6-9 ML (74.7% ROI for faders) as home favorite

Saints at Cardinals: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Saints Offense vs. Cardinals Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.013 19 0.023 18 -1
Total SR 47.2% 8 48.9% 30 22
Total DVOA -1.4% 18 6.2% 20 2
Dropback EPA -0.028 23 0.138 27 4
Dropback SR 46.6% 16 53.4% 32 16
Pass DVOA -5.7% 26 16.1% 24 -2
Adj. Sack Rate 7.5% 20 5.4% 27 7
Rush EPA 0.008 7 -0.169 4 -3
Rush SR 48.2% 3 41.4% 17 14
Rush DVOA 15.3% 2 -9.3% 11 9
Adj. Line Yards 5.14 2 4.21 10 8
Yards per Play 5.9 6 5.6 17 11
Points per Game 23.5 11 23.7 22 11

 

Cardinals Offense vs. Saints Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.027 20 0.01 15 -5
Total SR 42.3% 23 42.9% 13 -10
Total DVOA -13.1% 26 4.5% 18 -8
Dropback EPA -0.028 23 0.131 26 3
Dropback SR 42.0% 25 46.5% 20 -5
Pass DVOA -9.3% 27 13.2% 21 -6
Adj. Sack Rate 6.4% 14 6.7% 17 3
Rush EPA -0.027 13 -0.175 3 -10
Rush SR 42.9% 11 37.3% 7 -4
Rush DVOA -8.4% 20 -7.3% 14 -6
Adj. Line Yards 4.35 20 4.61 20 0
Yards per Play 4.8 29 5.6 17 -12
Points per Game 19 22 26.3 29 7

 

Saints at Cardinals: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 96 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Andy Dalton

Metric Output Rank
AY/A 7.1 12
ATS Value vs. Avg. -1.9 35

 

Career: Andy Dalton

  • AY/A: 6.7
  • QB Elo per Game: -7.3

2022: Kyler Murray

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.04 25
AY/A 5.6 31
QBR 46.6 19
ATS Value vs. Avg. 1.9 8

 

Career: Kyler Murray

  • AY/A: 7.0
  • QB Elo per Game: 64.5

Key Matchup: Saints Pass Offense vs. Cardinals Pass Defense

The Saints are without WRs Michael Thomas (foot) and Jarvis Landry (ankle) and TE Adam Trautman (ankle) — but I don’t think that matters.

The Saints have averaged 30 points over the past three games with backup QB Andy Dalton, whom I think will start again this week, and Thomas has been out that entire time.

As for Landry, he was out for Weeks 5-6, and in Week 4 he was targeted just twice, so his absence isn’t impactful, and Trautman is just a rotational player.

What really matters for the Saints — in terms of their receivers — is that they have pass-catching RB Alvin Kamara (12-116-0 receiving on 15 targets in two games with Dalton) and sensational rookie WR Chris Olave (No. 1 in the league with 158 air yards and yards after catch per game).

With those two, the Saints should be able to move the ball via the air, especially against a weak Cardinals defense that is No. 32 in pass DVOA against running backs (59.2%) and No. 32 in dropback success rate (53.4%).

Kamara and Olave should get theirs.

Plus, Dalton has been solid in relief of Winston — perhaps solid enough to keep the starting job. He’s No. 12 on the season with a 7.1 AY/A (vs. 6.2 for Winston), primarily because he has been able to avoid the back-breaking interceptions that are a constitutive part of Winston’s game (1 INT, 1.2% INT rate vs. 5 INTs, 4.3% INT rate for Winston).

With Dalton keeping the ball safe and the Saints able to move at will, they should be able to keep this game close against a Cardinals team that tends to start slow and give contests away.

Best Line: Saints +2.5 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Saints +2 (-110)
Personal Projection: Pick’Em
Limit: Saints +1.5

By the way, if you like a shorter underdog, historically it has been more profitable to bet it on the moneyline than against the spread. This has been the case for underdogs of less than a touchdown.

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

Check out our Browns at Ravens matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022, 1 pm ET
  • Location: M&T Bank Field
  • TV: CBS

Browns at Ravens: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Ravens -6.5
  • Over/Under: 45.5
  • Moneyline: Ravens -275, Browns +230

Browns at Ravens: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 19

  • Spread: Ravens - 55% bets, 70% money
  • Over/Under: Under - 31% bets, 35% money
  • Moneyline: Browns - 7% bets, 57% money

Browns at Ravens: Injuries

Browns: Week 6 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Joel Bitonio G Not Injury Related – Rest DNP
Jadeveon Clowney DE Ankle DNP
Jack Conklin OT Ankle DNP
Amari Cooper WR Not Injury Related – Rest DNP
Tony Fields II LB Illness DNP
Myles Garrett DE Shoulder, Biceps DNP
Joe Haeg OT Concussion DNP
David Njoku TE Not Injury Related – Rest DNP
Wyatt Teller G Calf DNP
Denzel Ward CB Concussion DNP
Alex Wright DE Quad, Glute FP

 

Browns: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Dawson Deaton G IR
Jerome Ford RB IR
Jakeem Grant Sr. WR IR
Nick Harris C IR
Jesse James TE IR
Chris Odom DE IR
Anthony Walker Jr. LB IR
Stephen Weatherly DE IR
Isaiah Weston WR IR
Chase Winovich DE IR
Deion Jones MLB IR-DFR
Deshaun Watson QB Susp

 

Browns Injury News

Ravens: Week 6 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Mark Andrews TE Knee DNP
Calais Campbell DE Foot DNP
Ben Cleveland G Foot DNP
J.K. Dobbins RB Knee DNP
Devin Duvernay WR NIR-Rest DNP
Morgan Moses OT Heel DNP
Marcus Peters CB NIR-Rest DNP
Patrick Ricard FB Knee DNP
Rashod Bateman WR Foot LP
Justin Houston OLB Groin LP
Lamar Jackson QB Hip LP
Ronnie Stanley OT NIR-Rest/Ankle LP
Justice Hill RB Hamstring FP

 

Ravens: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Vince Biegel OLB IR
Kyle Fuller CB IR
Daelin Hayes OLB IR
Ja’Wuan James T IR
Charlie Kolar TE IR
Steven Means OLB IR
Michael Pierce NT IR
Josh Ross ILB IR
Marcus Williams S IR
David Ojabo OLB IR-NFI
Tyus Bowser OLB PUP
Gus Edwards RB PUP

 

Ravens Injury News

Browns at Ravens: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Browns Trends

  • 2022 Browns: 2-4 ATS (27.2% ROI for faders)
  • HC Kevin Stefanski: 2-11 ATS (61.2% ROI for faders) in division
  • HC Kevin Stefanski: 0-4 ATS (92.7% ROI for faders) vs. Ravens

Ravens Trends

  • 2022 Ravens: 3-3 ATS (-5.4 ROI)
  • HC John Harbaugh: 4-0 ATS (92.7% ROI) vs. HC Kevin Stefanski

Browns at Ravens: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Browns Offense vs. Ravens Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.068 5 0.065 27 22
Total SR 44.5% 14 46.7% 27 13
Total DVOA 10.9% 8 0.5% 16 8
Dropback EPA 0.041 18 0.111 23 5
Dropback SR 43.5% 22 48.7% 27 5
Pass DVOA 13.8% 14 0.8% 10 -4
Adj. Sack Rate 4.9% 6 6.4% 20 14
Rush EPA 0.101 1 -0.036 20 19
Rush SR 45.7% 4 42.1% 18 14
Rush DVOA 12.8% 4 0.1% 24 20
Adj. Line Yards 4.85 6 4.80 27 21
Yards per Play 5.6 11 5.7 20 9
Points per Game 24.7 7 23.5 20 13

 

Ravens Offense vs. Browns Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.088 4 0.137 31 27
Total SR 46.4% 10 43.9% 17 7
Total DVOA 17.4% 3 15.6% 31 28
Dropback EPA 0.101 10 0.121 24 14
Dropback SR 47.9% 12 44.6% 13 1
Pass DVOA 33.9% 4 17.5% 27 23
Adj. Sack Rate 6.2% 12 6.3% 21 9
Rush EPA 0.068 2 0.162 32 30
Rush SR 44.0% 7 42.9% 20 13
Rush DVOA 13.7% 3 13.1% 30 27
Adj. Line Yards 4.25 22 5.17 31 9
Yards per Play 6.2 2 6 28 26
Points per Game 26.3 5 27.2 30 25

 

Browns at Ravens: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 96 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Jacoby Brissett

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.075 16
AY/A 5.9 28
QBR 58.2 10
ATS Value vs. Avg. -1.0 27

 

Career: Jacoby Brissett

  • AY/A: 6.3
  • QB Elo per Game: -33.6

2022: Lamar Jackson

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.111 6
AY/A 7 14
QBR 64.1 5
ATS Value vs. Avg. 2.6 5

 

Career: Lamar Jackson

  • AY/A: 7.6
  • QB Elo per Game: 82.1

Key Matchup: Ravens Rush Offense vs. Browns Rush Defense

The Ravens have a top-three run offense and the Browns have a bottom-three run defense.

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
Rush EPA 0.068 2 0.162 32 30
Rush DVOA 0.137 3 0.131 30 27

In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, the Ravens — now with LT Ronnie Stanley healthy — have the eighth-best offensive line, while the Browns have the eighth-worst defensive line.

Rank Defensive Line Opp OL OL Rank Edge
25 CLE BAL 8 -17

No. 1 RB J.K. Dobbins (knee) is uncertain after exiting Week 6 early and missing Wednesday practice, but backup RB Kenyan Drake (10-119-1 rushing) played well in his place last week, and No. 3 Justice Hill (6.6 yards per carry this year) practiced fully yesterday, so he seems likely to return this week.

And of course the Ravens have QB Lamar Jackson, who has a position-high 451 yards rushing this year.

Jackson is the No. 1 quarterback in my Week 7 fantasy rankings. He is one of my favorite Week 7 fantasy plays.

As for the Browns, they’re bad against the run anyway — and they are without EDGEs Chase Winovich (hamstring, IR) and Stephen Weatherly (knee, IR) and LB Anthony Walker (leg, IR) and might be without EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (ankle) and LB Deion Jones (shoulder, IR-DFR).

If a home team can control the clock with the ground game, it has the ability to pile on the points, and I think that’s what the Ravens will do.

Best Line: Ravens -6 (-110, Caesars)
First Recommended: Ravens -6 (-110)
Personal Projection: Ravens -7.25
Limit: Ravens -6.5

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

Check out our Lions at Cowboys matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022, 1 pm ET
  • Location: AT&T Stadium
  • TV: CBS

Lions at Cowboys: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Cowboys -7
  • Over/Under: 49
  • Moneyline: Cowboys -315, Lions +265

Lions at Cowboys: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 19

  • Spread: Lions - 52% bets, 85% money
  • Over/Under: Under - 43% bets, 64% money
  • Moneyline: Lions - 12% bets, 46% money

Lions at Cowboys: Injuries

Lions: Week 6 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Chris Board LB Knee DNP
D.J. Chark WR Ankle DNP
Taylor Decker OT Personal DNP
Charles Harris DE Groin DNP
Ifeatu Melifonwu SAF Ankle DNP
Matt Nelson OT Calf DNP
Bobby Price DB Knee DNP
Josh Reynolds WR Knee DNP
John Cominsky DE Wrist LP
Will Harris DB Hip LP
Frank Ragnow C Foot LP
D’Andre Swift RB Ankle/Shoulder LP
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR Ankle FP

 

Lions: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Quintez Cephus WR IR
Tommy Kraemer G IR
Levi Onwuzurike DL IR
Halapoulivaati Vaitai G IR
Tracy Walker III S IR
Jameson Williams WR IR-NFI
Jason Cabinda FB PUP
Jerry Jacobs CB PUP
Romeo Okwara DL PUP
Josh Paschal DL PUP

 

Lions Injury News

Cowboys: Week 6 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
CeeDee Lamb WR Hip LP
Quinton Bohanna DT Shoulder FP
Neville Gallimore DT Wrist FP
Devin Harper LB Achilles FP
Jason Peters OT Chest FP
Dak Prescott QB Right Thumb FP
Dalton Schultz TE Knee FP

 

Cowboys: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Tarell Basham DE IR
Devante Bond LB IR
Ian Bunting TE IR
Simi Fehoko WR IR
Damone Clark LB IR-NFI

 

Cowboys Injury News

Lions at Cowboys: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Lions Trends

  • 2022 Lions: 3-2 ATS (16.1% ROI)
  • HC Dan Campbell: 14-7 ATS (27.5% ROI) as underdog
  • HC Dan Campbell: 5-1 ATS (58.8% ROI) vs. teams with winning records at time of game

Cowboys Trends

  • 2022 Cowboys: 4-2 ATS (27.8% ROI)
  • QB Dak Prescott: 7-14-1 ATS (27.8% ROI for faders) as home favorite outside division

Lions at Cowboys: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Lions Offense vs. Cowboys Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.012 16 -0.091 5 -11
Total SR 41.3% 26 40.3% 4 -22
Total DVOA 7.6% 9 -16.7% 6 -3
Dropback EPA -0.001 19 -0.091 6 -13
Dropback SR 42.4% 24 42.0% 6 -18
Pass DVOA 12.3% 15 -24.6% 3 -12
Adj. Sack Rate 3.3% 1 10.4% 1 0
Rush EPA 0.034 4 -0.090 12 8
Rush SR 39.7% 22 37.5% 8 -14
Rush DVOA 9.3% 5 -5.4% 17 12
Adj. Line Yards 5.07 3 4.30 13 10
Yards per Play 6.2 2 4.6 3 1
Points per Game 28 3 16.3 3 0

 

Cowboys Offense vs. Lions Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.069 25 0.195 32 7
Total SR 41.4% 25 49.9% 31 6
Total DVOA -0.3% 17 19.7% 32 15
Dropback EPA -0.089 29 0.252 32 3
Dropback SR 39.9% 28 51.9% 30 2
Pass DVOA 4.0% 21 24.1% 32 11
Adj. Sack Rate 4.8% 5 4.9% 28 23
Rush EPA -0.043 16 0.107 31 15
Rush SR 43.2% 9 46.6% 29 20
Rush DVOA 9.2% 6 13.7% 31 25
Adj. Line Yards 4.73 8 4.75 25 17
Yards per Play 5 23 6.5 32 9
Points per Game 18.3 23 34 32 9

 

Lions at Cowboys: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 96 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Jared Goff

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.046 23
AY/A 7.5 7
QBR 57.6 11
ATS Value vs. Avg. 0.8 13

 

Career: Jared Goff

  • AY/A: 7.3
  • QB Elo per Game: 4.8

2022: Dak Prescott

Metric Output Rank
ATS Value vs. Avg. 1.2 11

 

Career: Dak Prescott

  • AY/A: 7.8
  • QB Elo per Game: 54.4

Key Matchup: Lions Offensive Line vs. Cowboys Defensive Line

Last year I thought the Cowboys defense was fraudulent, living off an unsustainable league-high 26 interceptions while still allowing the 12th-most yards per play (5.5).

But this year, they have proven themselves to be legitimate. They’re not as opportunistic, but they’re better overall, ranking No. 1 in sacks (24), No. 2 in quarterback hits (51) and No. 3 in yards per play (4.6).

With a strong quintet of EDGE rushers — Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, Dorance Armstrong, Dante Fowler and Sam Williams — the Cowboys can get after the passer.

They rank No. 1 in defensive adjusted sack rate (10.4%).

But in this game they might just meet their match — because the Lions are No. 1 in offensive adjusted sack rate (3.3%).

I personally have the Lions with the No. 1 offensive line in the league. As a staff, the FantasyPros experts have their line ranked No. 3. Either way, the large advantage that the Cowboys defensive line normally has over opposing units isn’t manifest in our unit power rankings.

Rank Defensive Line Opp OL OL Rank Edge
1 DAL DET 3 2

And I’d argue that the Lions actually have the edge in this OL-vs.-DL matchup, because the Cowboys can be pushed around a little in the ground game, and the Lions are their best on offense when they’re running the ball. In most key rush metrics, the Lions offense is in the top five, and the Cowboys defense is outside the top 10.

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
Rush EPA 0.034 4 -0.090 12 8
Rush DVOA 9.3% 5 -5.4% 17 12
Adj. Line Yards 5.07 3 4.30 13 10

Coming off the bye week, the Lions have had extra time to prepare for the Cowboys pass rush, and they’re healthy: RB D’Andre Swift (ankle, shoulder) practiced limitedly on Wednesday, so he’s likely to play, and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) practiced fully, and his presence on the field should prevent the Cowboys from stacking the box against the run.

With their offensive line, the Lions can dominate the ground game and protect QB Jared Goff, who has been effective this year, ranking top-12 in both AY/A (7.5) and QBR (57.6).

And that means the Lions can cover.

Best Line: Lions +7 (-105, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Lions +7 (-110)
Personal Projection: Lions +5.5
Limit: Lions +6.5

View our Pick of the Day in the BettingPros mobile app (free!) >>

New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars

Check out our Giants at Jaguars matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022, 1 pm ET
  • Location: TIAA Bank Field
  • TV: FOX

Giants at Jaguars: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Jaguars -3
  • Over/Under: 42.5
  • Moneyline: Jaguars -165, Giants +140

Giants at Jaguars: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 19

  • Spread: Jaguars - 35% bets, 49% money
  • Over/Under: Under - 47% bets, 74% money
  • Moneyline: Giants - 50% bets, 75% money

Giants at Jaguars: Injuries

Giants: Week 6 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Cordale Flott CB Calf DNP
Kenny Golladay WR Knee DNP
Jason Pinnock CB Ankle DNP
Kadarius Toney WR Hamstring DNP
Oshane Ximines OLB Quad DNP
Saquon Barkley RB Shoulder LP
Jon Feliciano C Groin LP
Azeez Ojulari LB Calf LP
Andrew Thomas OT Elbow LP

 

Giants: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Darrian Beavers ILB IR
D.J. Davidson DL IR
Tony Jefferson S IR
Collin Johnson WR IR
Shane Lemieux G IR
Marcus McKethan OL IR
Aaron Robinson CB IR
Sterling Shepard WR IR
Elerson Smith OLB IR
Rodarius Williams CB IR
Nick Gates C PUP
Matt Peart T PUP

 

Giants Injury News

Jaguars: Week 6 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Jamal Agnew WR Knee DNP
Shaquill Griffin CB Back DNP
Foley Fatukasi DE Quadricep LP
DaVon Hamilton NT Foot LP
Marvin Jones WR Hamstring LP
Foye Oluokun OLB Calf LP

 

Jaguars: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Ben Bartch OL IR
K’Lavon Chaisson OLB IR
Jordan Smith OLB IR

 

Jaguars Injury News

Giants at Jaguars: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Giants Trends

  • 2022 Giants: 5-1 ATS (60.5% ROI)
  • QB Daniel Jones: 13-6 ATS (32.4% ROI) on road
  • QB Daniel Jones: 21-13 ATS (18.9% ROI) as underdog
  • QB Daniel Jones: 12-4 ATS (45.1% ROI) as road underdog

Jaguars Trends

  • 2022 Jaguars: 2-4 ATS (26.2% ROI for faders)
  • QB Trevor Lawrence: 7-16 ATS (32.7% ROI for faders)

Giants at Jaguars: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Giants Offense vs. Jaguars Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.053 8 -0.047 9 1
Total SR 43.8% 18 41.3% 6 -12
Total DVOA 5.5% 13 -2.1% 10 -3
Dropback EPA 0.092 11 -0.03 9 -2
Dropback SR 46.0% 17 44.1% 11 -6
Pass DVOA 16.1% 12 4.8% 13 1
Adj. Sack Rate 10.5% 31 4.5% 30 -1
Rush EPA -0.002 9 -0.078 17 8
Rush SR 40.7% 18 36.2% 6 -12
Rush DVOA 4.3% 11 -11.8% 9 -2
Adj. Line Yards 4.37 17 4.00 5 -12
Yards per Play 5.1 21 5.2 8 -13
Points per Game 21.2 18 19 9 -9

 

Jaguars Offense vs. Giants Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.052 9 0.053 22 13
Total SR 47.3% 6 45.1% 20 14
Total DVOA 6.3% 11 9.8% 30 19
Dropback EPA 0.116 8 0.059 14 6
Dropback SR 51.1% 4 46.0% 17 13
Pass DVOA 25.1% 8 12.0% 20 12
Adj. Sack Rate 5.5% 9 6.0% 24 15
Rush EPA -0.037 15 0.043 29 14
Rush SR 42.1% 12 43.8% 24 12
Rush DVOA -7.7% 17 6.6% 28 11
Adj. Line Yards 3.86 30 5.05 30 0
Yards per Play 5.6 11 5.8 23 12
Points per Game 23 15 18.8 7 -8

 

Giants at Jaguars: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 96 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Daniel Jones

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.099 11
AY/A 6.5 19
QBR 54.7 14
ATS Value vs. Avg. -0.3 20

 

Career: Daniel Jones

  • AY/A: 6.3
  • QB Elo per Game: -30.1

2022: Trevor Lawrence

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.095 12
AY/A 6.9 15
QBR 55 13
ATS Value vs. Avg. 0.0 17

 

Career: Trevor Lawrence

  • AY/A: 5.6
  • QB Elo per Game: -42.9

Key Matchup: Giants RB Saquon Barkley vs. Jaguars Rush Defense

We all know what the Giants want to do in this game. They want to run the ball. They literally run more than they pass (52.0% rush rate), which is hard to do in today’s NFL — but I guess that’s what you do when you have Daniel Jones at quarterback and Saquon Barkley at running back.

Barkley leads the league with 119 carries, and we see the Barkley-heavy Giants backfield as having a significant edge over the Jaguars defensive line and linebacking unit.

Rank RBs Opp Defense DL Rank LBs Rank RB-DL Edge RB-LB Edge
2 NYG JAX 13 16 11 14

As mediocre as the Giants are on offense — 43.8% success rate (No. 18), 5.1 yards per play (No. 21) — they’ve been good running the ball, ranking No. 9 in rush EPA per play (-0.002), whereas the Jaguars defense has been average against the run (-0.078 rush EPA, No. 17).

Barkley (shoulder), LT Andrew Thomas (elbow) and C Jon Feliciano (groin) are all dealing with injuries, but they practiced limitedly on Wednesday, so they should play this weekend.

I have these two teams as about even in my power ratings. And in 2022 the difference between Jones and Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has been marginal and maybe nonexistent.

  • Daniel Jones: 0.099 EPA + CPOE (No. 11) | 54.7 QBR (No. 14)
  • Trevor Lawrence: 0.095 EPA + CPOE (No. 12) | 55 QBR (No. 13)

And I don’t see the Jaguars as having a home-field advantage of three points.

So if the Giants — really Barkley — can run the ball effectively against the Jaguars, they have a good chance to cover.

Best Line: Giants +3 (-110, FanDuel)
First Recommended: Giants +2 (-104)
Personal Projection: Giants +1.25
Limit: Giants +2

Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins

Check out our Steelers at Dolphins matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022, 8:20 pm ET
  • Location: Hard Rock Stadium
  • TV: NBC

Steelers at Dolphins: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Dolphins -7
  • Over/Under: 44.5
  • Moneyline: Dolphins -335, Steelers +270

Steelers at Dolphins: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 19

  • Spread: Dolphins - 56% bets, 74% money
  • Over/Under: Over - 32% bets, 56% money
  • Moneyline: Steelers - 46% bets, 77% money

Steelers at Dolphins: Injuries

Steelers: Week 6 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Larry Ogunjobi DT Knee DNP
Steven Sims WR Hamstring DNP
Mason Cole OL Foot, Ankle LP
James Daniels OL Ankle LP
Minkah Fitzpatrick S Knee LP
Myles Jack LB Ankle LP
Cam Sutton CB Hamstring LP
Ahkello Witherspoon CB Hamstring LP
Chris Wormley DL Ankle LP
Pat Freiermuth TE Concussion FP
Kenny Pickett QB Concussion FP
Levi Wallace CB Concussion FP

 

Steelers: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Calvin Austin III WR IR
Karl Joseph S IR
Damontae Kazee S IR
DeMarvin Leal DE IR
Jeremy McNichols RB IR
Anthony Miller WR IR
Carlins Platel DB IR
T.J. Watt LB IR

 

Steelers Injury News

Dolphins: Week 6 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Terron Armstead OT Toe DNP
Keion Crossen DB Knee DNP
Melvin Ingram OLB Not Injury Related – Vet Rest DNP
Emmanuel Ogbah DE Back DNP
Christian Wilkins DE Hand DNP
Jerome Baker ILB Hip LP
Xavien Howard CB Not Injury Related – Vet Rest LP
Kader Kohou CB Oblique LP
Raheem Mostert RB Knee LP
Zach Sieler DE Hand LP
Durham Smythe TE Hamstring LP
Skylar Thompson QB R. Thumb LP
Jaylen Waddle WR Shoulder LP
Elijah Campbell DB Foot FP
Tanner Conner TE Knee FP
Greg Little OT Achilles FP

 

Dolphins: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Cethan Carter TE IR
Trey Flowers LB IR
Austin Jackson OL IR
John Lovett FB IR
Nik Needham CB IR
Adam Shaheen TE IR
Trill Williams CB IR
Byron Jones CB PUP

 

Dolphins Injury News

Steelers at Dolphins: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Steelers Trends

  • 2022 Steelers: 2-3-1 ATS (12.4% ROI for faders)
  • HC Mike Tomlin: 47-25-3 ATS (26.8% ROI) as underdog
  • HC Mike Tomlin: 39-36 ML (34.9% ROI) as underdog

Dolphins Trends

  • 2022 Dolphins: 3-3 ATS (-4.1% ROI)
  • 2022 Dolphins: 3-0 ATS (91.8% ROI) in QB Tua Tagovailoa’s three full starts
  • QB Tua Tagovailoa: 10-3 ATS (47.3% ROI) at home

Steelers at Dolphins: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Steelers Offense vs. Dolphins Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.069 25 0.068 28 3
Total SR 42.5% 22 46.6% 26 4
Total DVOA -8.1% 24 8.3% 25 1
Dropback EPA -0.07 27 0.184 29 2
Dropback SR 43.5% 22 51.7% 29 7
Pass DVOA 8.1% 20 23.4% 31 11
Adj. Sack Rate 5.7% 11 6.5% 18 7
Rush EPA -0.068 22 -0.139 6 -16
Rush SR 40.5% 19 37.6% 9 -10
Rush DVOA -21.4% 31 -13.4% 7 -24
Adj. Line Yards 4.10 26 3.78 4 -22
Yards per Play 4.8 29 5.9 25 -4
Points per Game 16.2 30 25.8 27 -3

 

Dolphins Offense vs. Steelers Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.048 12 0.053 22 10
Total SR 46.2% 11 44.8% 19 8
Total DVOA 12.7% 6 0.5% 15 9
Dropback EPA 0.111 9 0.077 16 7
Dropback SR 48.6% 9 47.8% 24 15
Pass DVOA 32.8% 5 8.1% 17 12
Adj. Sack Rate 7.4% 19 6.1% 23 4
Rush EPA -0.079 23 0.011 27 4
Rush SR 41.3% 14 39.6% 13 -1
Rush DVOA -4.6% 15 -10.1% 10 -5
Adj. Line Yards 4.07 28 4.11 7 -21
Yards per Play 6.1 5 5.7 20 15
Points per Game 21.8 17 24.3 23 6

 

Steelers at Dolphins: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 96 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Kenny Pickett

Metric Output Rank
AY/A 4.3 34
ATS Value vs. Avg. -1.2 28

 

Career: Kenny Pickett

  • AY/A: 4.3
  • QB Elo per Game: 1.9

2022: Tua Tagovailoa

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.188 2
AY/A 9.2 1
QBR 80 1
ATS Value vs. Avg. 0.7 14

 

Career: Tua Tagovailoa

  • AY/A: 6.8
  • QB Elo per Game: -5.0

Key Matchup: Dolphins Pass Offense vs. Steelers Pass Defense

Come on. QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) has cleared the league’s protocol and is ready to return to action, so I think this line is way off, and I believe that I’ve shown remarkable restraint in getting my projection down to “only” Dolphins -7.75.

In my first set of Week 7 projections, I had this number WAY higher — I don’t even want to say how high, because it will make you question my entire process — but I’m high on the Dolphins because I am buying Tagovailoa.

The Dolphins have had a top-10 pass offense this year, and that’s with QBs Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson playing most of the past three weeks.

Metric Offense Rank
Dropback EPA 0.111 9
Dropback SR 48.6% 9
Pass DVOA 32.8% 5

Nothing against Bridgewater and Thompson — but they’re not Tagovailoa, who has been a legitimate top-tier quarterback this year.

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.188 2
AY/A 9.2 1
QBR 80 1

Granted, he has had limited action — but so have Bridgewater and Thompson, and in a head-to-head comparison Tagovailoa massively outshines them.

Statistic Tua Tagovailoa
Bridgewater & Thompson
Attempts 115 106
Completion Rate 69.6% 59.4%
AY/A 9.2 6.2
TD Rate 7.0% 2.8%
INT Rate 2.6% 3.8%
Sack Rate 5.0% 7.8%

It’s not just that HC Mike McDaniel has a good offensive system, although he certainly does — and that has contributed to Tagovailoa’s third-year progress.

And it’s not just that whoever throws the ball for the Dolphins has the benefit of throwing to WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle (and I guess also TE Mike Gesicki).

Tagovailoa has clearly outperformed his backups and played at a high level in 2022 — and that’s not surprising given everything we know about him to this point.

Tagovailoa was the No. 1 quarterback in his recruitment class. He won a come-from-behind off-the-bench championship at Alabama against Georgia as a true freshman. He was one of the best college quarterbacks we’ve ever seen. He was selected No. 5 overall — and he fell that far only because of a catastrophic and career-threatening hip injury. And then he had an understandably uneven adjustment to the NFL in his first two seasons as he recovered from that injury and navigated offensive coordinator incompetence and rollover in Miami.

Based on that information, we should probably take Tagovailoa’s 2022 production at close to face value: He’s playing like a good quarterback because he’s probably a good quarterback — far better than his backups — and his absence in Weeks 4-6 highlights just how much his presence in Weeks 1-3 meant to the team.

Stat Weeks 1-3 Weeks 4-6
Points per Game 27.7 16.0
Win-Loss Record 3-0 0-3
ATS Record 3-0 0-3

Relative to his backups, Tagovailoa (I now think) is worth quite a bit to the spread — far more than whatever is implied in my conservative projection of Dolphins -7.75 — so I expect the Dolphins to outperform expectations, especially against a Steelers pass defense that is injured.

Last week, the Steelers were without four starters in their secondary: CBs Cameron Sutton (hamstring), Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) and Levi Wallace (concussion) and FS Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee).

Even if all those guys return, they won’t be at full health — and that’s not taking into account the absence of All-Pro EDGE T.J. Watt (pectoral, IR) and possible absence of DT Larry Ogunjobi (knee), who missed practice on Wednesday.

Against a Steelers pass defense that is mediocre at best …

Metric Defense Rank
Dropback EPA 0.077 16
Dropback SR 47.8% 24
Pass DVOA 8.1% 17

… the Dolphins should be able to move the ball through the air, especially at home.

Best Line: Dolphins -7 (-110, Caesars)
First Recommended: Dolphins -7 (-110)
Personal Projection: Dolphins -7.75
Limit: Dolphins -7

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>

Freedman's 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests

Here are the five spread bets that (right now) I'm leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.

Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.

  • Saints +2.5 at Cardinals
  • Lions +7.5 at Cowboys
  • Commanders +5.5 vs. Packers
  • Giants +3.5 at Jaguars
  • Bears +8.5 at Patriots

Also in consideration are:

  • Ravens -6.5 vs. Browns
  • Falcons +6.5 at Bengals
  • Seahawks +6.5 at Chargers
  • Dolphins -7.5 vs. Steelers

Look for my tweet update on Sunday before kickoff.

UPDATE (Sun. 10/23): Here’s the tweet.

Week 6 Record

  • Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 7-3 (+3.7 units)
  • Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 3-2

Year-to-Date Record

  • Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 39-29-1 (+7.05 units)
  • Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 16-14

Previous Best Bets Pieces

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>

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