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Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 8 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets

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In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that - as of writing on Wednesday - I'm most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I'll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.

I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord.

Week 7 Record

  • Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 6-7 (-1.62 units)
  • Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 3-2

Year-to-Date Record

  • Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 45-36-1 (+5.43 units)
  • Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 19-16

All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.

Freedman's Week 8 Projections Against the Spread

Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 8 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented - along with my projected lines and edges - from the perspective of the home team. (For the London game, the Jaguars are technically the home team.)

Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Oct. 26, 4 pm ET. 

Home Team Road Team Consensus Line Freedman Line Projected Edge
TB BAL 1 0.25 -0.75
JAX DEN -2.5 -2.25 0.25
ATL CAR -4.5 -5.5 -1
MIN ARI -3.5 -3.75 -0.25
DET MIA 3.5 3.25 -0.25
DAL CHI -9.5 -9.25 0.25
NO LV 1.5 -1 -2.5
NYJ NE 1.5 2.5 1
PHI PIT -10.5 -10.75 -0.25
HOU TEN 2 2.25 0.25
LAR SF 1.5 -0.25 -1.75
IND WAS -3 -3.25 -0.25
SEA NYG -3 -2 1
BUF GB -11 -11.75 -0.75
CLE CIN 3.5 4 0.5

 

Based on my current projections and the best odds available in the market, I’m willing to bet on the following teams at these lines.

  • Saints +1.5 vs. Raiders
  • Patriots -1.5 at Jets
  • Eagles -10 vs. Steelers
  • Colts -2.5 vs. Commanders
  • Giants +3 at Seahawks

Freedman's Week 8 ATS Bet Breakdowns

Here are stats and notes for the five games with spread bets I like right now.

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints

Check out our Raiders at Saints matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022, 1 pm ET
  • Location: Caesars Superdome
  • TV: CBS

Raiders at Saints: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Raiders -1.5
  • Over/Under: 49.5
  • Moneyline: Raiders -126, Saints +108

Raiders at Saints: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 26

  • Spread: Saints - 30% bets, 32% money
  • Over/Under: Under - 18% bets, 31% money
  • Moneyline: Saints - 23% bets, 26% money

Raiders at Saints: Injuries

Raiders: Week 8 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Johnathan Abram S Illness DNP
Davante Adams WR Illness DNP
Tashawn Bower DE Illness DNP
Divine Deablo LB Back/Ankle DNP
Clelin Ferrell DE Illness DNP
Jayon Brown ILB Hamstring LP
Derek Carr QB Back LP
Jermaine Eluemunor OT Knee LP
Mack Hollins WR Heel LP
Josh Jacobs RB Foot LP
Hunter Renfrow WR Hip LP
DJ Turner WR Hamstring LP
Darren Waller TE Hamstring LP

 

Raiders: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Justin Herron T IR
Nate Hobbs CB IR
Jordan Jenkins DE IR
Micah Kiser LB IR
Sincere McCormick RB IR
Brandon Parker T IR

 

Raiders Injury News

Saints: Week 8 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Michael Thomas WR Foot DNP
Jarvis Landry WR Ankle DNP
Adam Trautman TE Ankle DNP
Marshon Lattimore CB Abdomen DNP
Andrus Peat G Chest LP
Keith Kirkwood WR Ankle LP
Paulson Adebo CB Knee LP
Ryan Ramczyk OT Rest LP
Calvin Throckmorton OT Hip FP
Payton Turner DE Chest FP
Jameis Winston QB Back/Ankle FP

 

Saints: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Ethan Greenidge OL IR
Deonte Harty WR/RS IR
Albert Huggins DT IR
D’Marco Jackson LB IR
Smoke Monday SAF IR
Trevor Penning OT IR
Bradley Roby CB IR
P.J. Williams CB IR
Dylan Soehner TE PUP

 

Saints Injury News

Raiders at Saints: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Raiders Trends

  • 2022 Raiders: 3-3 ATS (-3.3% ROI)
  • QB Derek Carr: 15-25-1 ATS (20.7% ROI for faders) as favorite
  • 2022 Favorites: 45-62-1 ATS (10.8% ROI for faders)

Saints Trends

  • 2022 Saints: 2-5 ATS (35.2% ROI for faders)
  • 2022 Saints: 2-2 ATS (-4.3% ROI) with QB Andy Dalton
  • QB Andy Dalton: 41-31-2 ATS (12.0% ROI) as underdog

Raiders at Saints: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Raiders Offense vs. Saints Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.091 4 0.029 20 16
Total SR 46.3% 9 43.3% 11 2
Total DVOA 5.7% 12 3.5% 22 10
Dropback EPA 0.131 7 0.137 29 22
Dropback SR 46.9% 18 47.3% 22 4
Pass DVOA 8.8% 18 10.6% 20 2
Adj. Sack Rate 6.7% 17 6.6% 18 1
Rush EPA 0.019 5 -0.131 7 2
Rush SR 45.3% 5 37.3% 7 2
Rush DVOA 15.9% 1 -6.0% 19 18
Adj. Line Yards 5.69 1 4.53 16 15
Yards per Play 6 7 5.6 17 10
Points per Game 27.2 3 28.6 31 28

 

Saints Offense vs. Raiders Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.004 17 0.062 26 9
Total SR 48.4% 4 46.0% 27 23
Total DVOA -2.5% 20 9.2% 27 7
Dropback EPA -0.003 19 0.178 31 12
Dropback SR 48.8% 9 48.4% 27 18
Pass DVOA -3.3% 25 19.7% 30 5
Adj. Sack Rate 6.4% 15 5.4% 25 10
Rush EPA -0.007 12 -0.149 3 -9
Rush SR 47.8% 2 41.7% 17 15
Rush DVOA 11.8% 3 -5.9% 20 17
Adj. Line Yards 5.05 2 4.18 7 5
Yards per Play 6.1 4 5.8 22 18
Points per Game 25 7 25 26 19

 

Raiders at Saints: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 112 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Derek Carr

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.117 7
AY/A 7.2 11
QBR 62 7
ATS Value vs. Avg. 0.4 16

 

Career: Derek Carr

  • AY/A: 7.1
  • QB Elo per Game: 14.8

2022: Andy Dalton

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.089 13
AY/A 6.9 15
QBR 51 18
ATS Value vs. Avg. -1.2 28

 

Career: Andy Dalton

  • AY/A: 6.7
  • QB Elo per Game: -6.4

Key Matchup: Saints Rush Offense vs. Raiders Rush Defense

For the Saints, No. 1 WR Michael Thomas (foot) has been out since Week 4. No. 2 WR Jarvis Landry (ankle) has been out since Week 5. No. 1 TE Adam Trautman (ankle), since early in Week 6.

Even so, the Saints have managed 31 points per game over the past month with backup-turned-starting QB Andy Dalton.

How?

The running game.

The Saints have one of the league’s best rush attacks, and the Raiders are mediocre against the run, often allowing opponents to stay on schedule and sustain drives on the ground.

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
Rush SR 0.478 2 0.417 17 15
Rush DVOA 0.118 3 -0.059 20 17

 

The Raiders are also exploitable via the air, ranking bottom-six in both dropback EPA per play (0.178, No. 31) and dropback SR (48.4%, No. 27) — but with their pass-catching injuries the Saints will likely rely on their running game in Week 8, and their relative edge against the Raiders rush defense should enable them to keep this contest close.

In the Thursday lookahead market, the Saints were -1.5, and I still think they should be favored.

Best Line: Saints +1.5 (-106, FanDuel)
First Recommended: Saints +2.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Saints -1

If you like a shorter underdog, historically it has been more profitable to bet it on the moneyline than against the spread. This has been the case for underdogs of less than a touchdown.

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>

New England Patriots at New York Jets

Check out our Patriots at Jets matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022, 1 pm ET
  • Location: MetLife Stadium
  • TV: CBS

Patriots at Jets: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Patriots -1.5
  • Over/Under: 40.5
  • Moneyline: Patriots -130, Jets +110

Patriots at Jets: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 26

  • Spread: Patriots - 59% bets, 77% money
  • Over/Under: Under - 65% bets, 94% money
  • Moneyline: Patriots - 50% bets, 69% money

Patriots at Jets: Injuries

Patriots: Week 8 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
David Andrews C Concussion DNP
Christian Barmore DT Knee DNP
Kyle Dugger S Ankle DNP
Nelson Agholor WR Hamstring LP
Kendrick Bourne WR Toe LP
Anfernee Jennings LB Calf LP
Jonathan Jones CB Ankle LP
Mike Onwenu G Ankle LP
Adrian Phillips DB Shoulder LP
Josh Uche LB Hamstring LP
Isaiah Wynn OT Shoulder LP

 

Patriots: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Yodny Cajuste OL IR
Brian Hoyer QB IR
Ty Montgomery WR IR
Ronnie Perkins LB IR
Kristian Wilkerson WR IR
Joejuan Williams CB IR
Quinn Nordin K NFI
Andrew Stueber OL NFI
Malcolm Perry WR Retired
James White RB Retired

 

Patriots Injury News

Jets: Week 8 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Corey Davis WR Knee DNP
John Franklin-Myers DE Illness DNP
Duane Brown OT Shoulder LP
Jermaine Johnson II DE Ankle LP
Quincy Williams ILB Ankle LP
Ashtyn Davis SAF Hamstring LP

 

Jets: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Nick Bawden FB IR
Mekhi Becton T IR
George Fant T IR
Breece Hall RB IR
Max Mitchell OL IR
Alijah Vera-Tucker G IR
Greg Senat OL NFI

 

Jets Injury News

Patriots at Jets: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Patriots Trends

  • 2022 Patriots: 3-3-1 ATS (-4% ROI)
  • HC Bill Belichick: 50-22-1 ATS (37.5% ROI) off loss
  • HC Bill Belichick: 56-17 ML (22% ROI) off loss

Jets Trends

  • 2022 Jets: 5-2 ATS (36.6% ROI)
  • HC Robert Saleh: 2-5 ATS (47.7% ROI for faders) in division

Patriots at Jets: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Patriots Offense vs. Jets Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.01 14 -0.033 10 -4
Total SR 45.3% 16 44.1% 17 1
Total DVOA -7.1% 23 -2.9% 10 -13
Dropback EPA 0.004 18 -0.008 10 -8
Dropback SR 47.3% 15 43.9% 9 -6
Pass DVOA 2.6% 22 0.4% 10 -12
Adj. Sack Rate 7.2% 20 6.3% 21 1
Rush EPA 0.019 5 -0.072 14 9
Rush SR 42.6% 11 44.4% 24 13
Rush DVOA -0.9% 16 -7.2% 14 -2
Adj. Line Yards 4.94 4 4.24 10 6
Yards per Play 5.8 9 4.9 5 -4
Points per Game 22.1 16 19.6 10 -6

 

Jets Offense vs. Patriots Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.042 24 -0.049 7 -17
Total SR 40.0% 29 44.5% 19 -10
Total DVOA -3.7% 21 -5.4% 9 -12
Dropback EPA -0.076 28 -0.097 4 -24
Dropback SR 40.5% 29 40.9% 2 -27
Pass DVOA 0.6% 23 -16.0% 5 -18
Adj. Sack Rate 6.9% 18 8.3% 6 -12
Rush EPA 0.019 5 0.019 28 23
Rush SR 39.1% 22 49.7% 32 10
Rush DVOA 3.4% 11 7.5% 28 17
Adj. Line Yards 4.45 17 4.80 26 9
Yards per Play 5.1 22 5.4 12 -10
Points per Game 22.7 14 20.9 14 0

 

Patriots at Jets: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 112 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Mac Jones

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.051 23
AY/A 5.5 35
ATS Value vs. Avg. -0.7 22

 

Career: Mac Jones

  • AY/A: 6.8
  • QB Elo per Game: -22.8

2022: Zach Wilson

Metric Output Rank
AY/A 6.2 25
ATS Value vs. Avg. -2.6 38

 

Career: Zach Wilson

  • AY/A: 5.5
  • QB Elo per Game: -119.2

Key Matchup: Patriots Pass Defense vs. Jets Pass Offense

For the season, the Jets offense has ranked top-five in just one efficiency metric: Rush EPA per play (0.019, No. 5).

In fact, since QB Zach Wilson returned to action in Week 4 the Jets have ranked No. 1 in rush EPA per play (0.100) and given him outstanding support via the ground game.

But for the year the Jets are No. 22 in rush SR (39.1%), and since Week 4 they’ve improved to only No. 13 (42.3%).

What this means is that, on a down-to-down basis, the Jets have been neither consistent nor great running the ball. Rather, they’ve relied on big plays to move down the field — especially big plays from rookie RB Breece Hall (knee, IR).

But without Hall — as well as do-it-all OL Alijah Vera-Tucker (triceps, IR), the team’s best run blocker — the Jets could struggle on the ground and might need Wilson to contribute more than he has to this point in the year.

And that feels like a problem given that the Patriots defense is top-six in every key pass efficiency metric while the Jets pass offense is no better than average.

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
Dropback EPA -0.076 28 -0.097 4 -24
Dropback SR 0.405 29 0.409 2 -27
Pass DVOA 0.006 23 -0.16 5 -18
Adj. Sack Rate 0.069 18 0.083 6 -12

 

If the Jets can’t run the ball without Hall and Vera-Tucker — and if they can’t pass the ball against the Pats defense — how will they score enough points to cover?

Best Line: Patriots -1.5 (-107, PointsBets)
First Recommended: Patriots -1.5 (-107)
Personal Projection: Patriots -2.5

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles

Check out our Steelers at Eagles matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022, 1 pm ET
  • Location: Lincoln Financial Field
  • TV: CBS

Steelers at Eagles: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Eagles -10.5
  • Over/Under: 43
  • Moneyline: Eagles -500, Steelers +390

Steelers at Eagles: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 26

  • Spread: Steelers - 36% bets, 76% money
  • Over/Under: Under - 64% bets, 89% money
  • Moneyline: Steelers - 5% bets, 25% money

Steelers at Eagles: Injuries

Steelers: Week 8 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Josh Jackson CB Groin DNP
Levi Wallace CB Shoulder DNP
Montravius Adams DT Hamstring DNP
Larry Ogunjobi DT Knee DNP
Steven Sims WR Hamstring LP
Pat Freiermuth TE Ankle LP
Ahkello Witherspoon CB Hamstring FP

 

Steelers: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Calvin Austin III WR IR
Karl Joseph S IR
Damontae Kazee S IR
DeMarvin Leal DE IR
Jeremy McNichols RB IR
Anthony Miller WR IR
Carlins Platel DB IR
T.J. Watt LB IR

 

Steelers Injury News

Eagles: Week 8 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Brandon Graham DE Hamstring DNP
James Bradberry CB Rest LP
A.J. Brown WR Rest LP
Fletcher Cox DE Rest LP
Landon Dickerson G Rest LP
Patrick Johnson LB Concussion LP
Jason Kelce C Rest LP
Isaac Seumalo G Ankle, rest LP
Darius Slay CB Rest LP
Josh Sweat DE Rest LP
Josh Jobe CB Shoulder FP

 

Eagles: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Derek Barnett DE IR
Jaeden Graham TE IR
Janarius Robinson DE IR
Tyree Jackson TE PUP
Brett Toth T/G PUP

 

Eagles Injury News

Steelers at Eagles: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Steelers Trends

  • 2022 Steelers: 3-3-1 ATS (-3.1% ROI)
  • HC Mike Tomlin: 48-25-3 ATS (27.7% ROI) as underdog

Eagles Trends

  • 2022 Eagles: 4-2 ATS (28.6% ROI)
  • QB Jalen Hurts: 8-3-1 ATS (37.0% ROI) at home

Steelers at Eagles: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Steelers Offense vs. Eagles Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.082 28 -0.094 4 -24
Total SR 41.9% 26 43.9% 15 -11
Total DVOA -9.2% 24 -17.7% 4 -20
Dropback EPA -0.082 29 -0.143 2 -27
Dropback SR 44.0% 22 42.9% 6 -16
Pass DVOA 4.1% 21 -27.5% 2 -19
Adj. Sack Rate 5.5% 9 7.7% 11 2
Rush EPA -0.082 21 0.007 25 4
Rush SR 37.9% 25 46.0% 28 3
Rush DVOA -20.7% 30 -1.0% 22 -8
Adj. Line Yards 4.20 25 4.77 24 -1
Yards per Play 4.8 32 4.7 2 -30
Points per Game 15.3 31 17.5 4 -27

 

Eagles Offense vs. Steelers Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.106 3 0.042 22 19
Total SR 48.3% 5 44.5% 19 14
Total DVOA 13.9% 4 -0.5% 14 10
Dropback EPA 0.177 4 0.084 18 14
Dropback SR 47.4% 14 47.4% 23 9
Pass DVOA 27.5% 6 6.9% 15 9
Adj. Sack Rate 7.5% 21 5.3% 26 5
Rush EPA 0.023 4 -0.028 20 16
Rush SR 49.2% 1 39.6% 13 12
Rush DVOA 9.2% 5 -10.7% 9 4
Adj. Line Yards 4.48 15 4.27 11 -4
Yards per Play 5.6 12 5.7 19 7
Points per Game 26.8 4 23.1 22 18

 

Steelers at Eagles: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 112 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Kenny Pickett

Metric Output Rank
AY/A 3.9 36
QBR 41.1 23
ATS Value vs. Avg. -1.3 33

 

Career: Kenny Pickett

  • AY/A: 3.9
  • QB Elo per Game: -13.8

2022: Jalen Hurts

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.119 6
AY/A 8.4 4
QBR 59.1 9
ATS Value vs. Avg. 2.0 8

 

Career: Jalen Hurts

  • AY/A: 7.3
  • QB Elo per Game: 50.0

Key Matchup: Eagles Pass Defense vs. Steelers Pass Offense

The Steelers have one of the league’s best pass-catching quintets with WRs Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and George Pickens, TE Pat Freiermuth and RB Najee Harris — but their passing game has been waylaid by the poor performance of rookie QB Kenny Pickett, who’s dead last with a 3.9 AY/A.

How will they be able to move the ball through the air against the Eagles defense, which is top-six against the pass?

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
Dropback EPA -0.082 29 -0.143 2 -27
Dropback SR 0.44 22 0.429 6 -16
Pass DVOA 0.041 21 -0.275 2 -19

 

The answer: They won’t. The Eagles are too strong at cornerback.

On the perimeter, James Bradberry has the size (6’1″ and 210 pounds) and physicality to challenge Claypool and Pickens, and Darius Slay has the quickness (6.90-second three-cone drill) to stick with Johnson. In the slot, Avonte Maddox has steadily developed into one of the league’s best middle-of-the-field pass defenders thanks to his elite combination of speed (4.39-second 40-yard dash) and shiftiness (6.51-second three-cone).

The Eagles are explosive enough on offense to build a double-digit lead in the first half, and their pass defense is stout enough to keep it in the second half.

Best Line: Eagles -10 (-110, PointsBets)
First Recommended: Eagles -10 (-110)
Personal Projection: Eagles -10.75

View our Pick of the Day in the BettingPros mobile app (free!) >>

Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts

Check out our Commanders at Colts matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
  • Location: Lucas Oil Stadium
  • TV: FOX

Commanders at Colts: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Colts -3
  • Over/Under: 39.5
  • Moneyline: Colts -148, Commanders +130

Commanders at Colts: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 26

  • Spread: Commanders - 65% bets, 72% money
  • Over/Under: Under - 79% bets, 93% money
  • Moneyline: Commanders - 42% bets, 45% money

Commanders at Colts: Injuries

Commanders: Week 8 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Saahdiq Charles G Illness DNP
Jahan Dotson WR Hamstring DNP
Cole Holcomb LB Foot DNP
William Jackson CB Back DNP
Cole Turner TE Concussion DNP
Dyami Brown WR Groin LP
Logan Thomas TE Calf LP
Jonathan Williams RB Knee LP
Sam Cosmi OT Finger FP
Taylor Heinicke QB Calf FP

 

Commanders: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Willie Beavers G IR
Tariq Castro-Fields CB IR
Milo Eifler LB IR
Curtis Hodges TE IR
Phidarian Mathis DT IR
Chase Roullier C IR
Wes Schweitzer G IR
Carson Wentz QB IR
Chase Young DE PUP

 

Commanders Injury News

Colts: Week 8 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Stephon Gilmore CB Rest DNP
Yannick Ngakoue DE Rest DNP
Kwity Paye DE Ankle DNP
Matt Ryan QB Right shoulder DNP
Grant Stuard LB Pectoral DNP
JoJo Domann LB Abdomen LP
Ryan Kelly C Knee LP
Keke Coutee WR Concussion FP
Zaire Franklin OLB Shoulder FP
Shaquille Leonard OLB Back FP
Luke Rhodes LS Shoulder FP

 

Colts: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Trevor Denbow S IR
Ashton Dulin WR IR
Carter O’Donnell T IR
Andrew Ogletree TE IR
Rigoberto Sanchez P IR
Armani Watts S IR
Khari Willis S Retired

 

Colts Injury News

Commanders at Colts: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Commanders Trends

  • 2022 Commanders: 3-4 ATS (10.2% ROI for faders)

Colts Trends

  • 2022 Colts: 3-4 ATS (8.6% ROI for faders)
  • HC Frank Reich: 24-17-2 ATS (13.2% ROI) out of division

Commanders at Colts: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Commanders Offense vs. Colts Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.079 27 0.004 14 -13
Total SR 38.3% 30 45.7% 25 -5
Total DVOA -16.7% 28 -2.3% 11 -17
Dropback EPA -0.065 27 0.098 21 -6
Dropback SR 41.0% 27 50.4% 28 1
Pass DVOA -7.9% 29 8.4% 16 -13
Adj. Sack Rate 9.2% 29 8.0% 10 -19
Rush EPA -0.104 22 -0.115 10 -12
Rush SR 33.1% 31 39.8% 14 -17
Rush DVOA -20.4% 29 -13.9% 8 -21
Adj. Line Yards 4.11 26 3.86 3 -23
Yards per Play 4.9 29 5.1 8 -21
Points per Game 17.9 25 20 13 -12

 

Colts Offense vs. Commanders Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play -0.097 30 0.003 13 -17
Total SR 42.5% 23 41.0% 3 -20
Total DVOA -26.8% 32 1.2% 16 -16
Dropback EPA -0.051 26 0.08 16 -10
Dropback SR 45.6% 19 44.3% 11 -8
Pass DVOA -20.2% 30 15.2% 29 -1
Adj. Sack Rate 8.4% 23 8.2% 7 -16
Rush EPA -0.197 31 -0.128 9 -22
Rush SR 35.5% 30 35.5% 3 -27
Rush DVOA -28.6% 32 -18.6% 4 -28
Adj. Line Yards 3.86 31 4.24 9 -22
Yards per Play 5 27 5.5 16 -11
Points per Game 16.1 30 22.3 19 -11

 

Commanders at Colts: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 112 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Taylor Heinicke

Metric Output Rank
ATS Value vs. Avg. -1.6 35

 

Career: Taylor Heinicke

  • AY/A: 6.1
  • QB Elo per Game: -35.8

2022: Sam Ehlinger

Ehlinger has no NFL passing statistics.

Career: Sam Ehlinger

  • AY/A: N/A
  • QB Elo per Game: N/A

Key Matchup: Colts Rush Offense vs. Commanders Rush Defense

Benched QB Matt Ryan hasn’t been great this year (6.0 AY/A, No. 29) — but the Colts running game has been worse.

Astoundingly, the Colts have a bottom-three rushing offense, and now they’re taking on a defense that’s top-10 against the run.

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
Rush EPA -0.197 31 -0.128 9 -22
Rush SR 0.355 30 0.355 3 -27
Rush DVOA -0.286 32 -0.186 4 -28
Adj. Line Yards 3.86 31 4.24 9 -22

 

But maybe — maybe — new starting QB Sam Ehlinger will be able to help out in the ground game.

He’s a sixth-rounder making his first NFL start, so I’m probably just burning money by betting on him, but he was fantastic in the preseason with 24-of-29 for 289-4-0 passing. Under the guidance of HC Frank Reich, he might be able to play well enough within the system to hold serve against a Commanders defense that ranks No. 29 in pass DVOA (15.2%).

And he has an explosiveness and mobility that Ryan has never had. In four years of college ball, Ehlinger was 459-2,510-33 rushing (excluding sacks, per Sports Info Solutions). Most importantly, he had 173 scrambles — and that’s why he’s now the Colts starter.

The Colts need a quarterback who can (hopefully) help them juice the rushing game by turning pressured dropbacks and sacks into chain-moving improvised carries.

Before Ryan’s benching was announced …

… this line was -4 on Sunday night and Monday morning. Within an hour of the announcement, the line had moved to -2, where it met resistance and was bet back to the key number of -3, where it currently is at most sportsbooks.

That’s the sign that the market thinks Ehlinger can play — or at least keep this game close.

Best Line: Colts -2.5 (-110, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Colts -2.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Colts -3.25

Note: I first bet this game via the lookahead line of Commanders +6. I am now looking to middle via Colts -2.5.

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks

Check out our Giants at Seahawks matchup page.

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
  • Location: Lumen Field
  • TV: FOX

Giants at Seahawks: Consensus Lines

  • Spread: Seahawks -3
  • Over/Under: 45
  • Moneyline: Seahawks -152, Giants +133

Giants at Seahawks: Betting Percentages

Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 26

  • Spread: Seahawks - 56% bets, 71% money
  • Over/Under: Under - 24% bets, 38% money
  • Moneyline: Seahawks - 54% bets, 62% money

Giants at Seahawks: Injuries

Giants: Week 8 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
Daniel Bellinger TE Eye DNP
Ben Bredeson G Knee DNP
Cordale Flott CB Calf DNP
Kenny Golladay WR Knee DNP
Evan Neal OT Knee DNP
Kadarius Toney WR Hamstring DNP
Oshane Ximines OLB Quad DNP
Tyre Phillips G Toe LP
Jason Pinnock CB Foot LP
Leonard Williams DE Elbow LP

 

Giants: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Darrian Beavers ILB IR
D.J. Davidson DL IR
Tony Jefferson S IR
Collin Johnson WR IR
Shane Lemieux G IR
Marcus McKethan OL IR
Azeez Ojulari OLB IR
Aaron Robinson CB IR
Sterling Shepard WR IR
Elerson Smith OLB IR-Return
Rodarius Williams CB IR-Return
Matt Peart T PUP

 

Giants Injury News

Seahawks: Week 8 Injury Report

Player Position Injury Wed
DK Metcalf WR Knee DNP
Penny Hart WR Hamstring DNP
Phil Haynes G Concussion DNP
Nick Bellore LB Concussion DNP
Poona Ford DT Ankle DNP
Darrell Taylor OLB Groin DNP
Gabe Jackson G Hip/knee LP
Tyler Lockett WR Hamstring LP
Artie Burns CB Groin LP
Ryan Neal S Ankle LP
Quinton Jefferosn DT Foot LP
Sidney Jones CB Groin LP
Al Woods DT Knee FP

 

Seahawks: IR, PUP & Out

Player Pos Status
Jamal Adams SS IR
Isaiah Dunn CB IR
Travis Homer RB IR
Darryl Johnson LB IR
Tyler Ott LS IR
Rashaad Penny RB IR
Alton Robinson LB IR
Tyreke Smith LB IR
Cody Thompson WR IR
Tre Brown CB PUP
Ben Burr-Kirven LB PUP
Jon Rhattigan LB PUP

 

Seahawks Injury News

Giants at Seahawks: Notable Trends

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).

Giants Trends

  • 2022 Giants: 6-1 ATS (65.5% ROI)
  • QB Daniel Jones: 14-6 ATS (35.6% ROI) on road
  • QB Daniel Jones: 22-13 ATS (21.1% ROI) as underdog
  • QB Daniel Jones: 13-4 ATS (48.1% ROI) as road underdog

Seahawks Trends

  • 2022 Seahawks: 4-3 ATS (9.1% ROI)

Giants at Seahawks: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don't Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Giants Offense vs. Seahawks Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.075 7 0.059 25 18
Total SR 45.5% 15 42.7% 10 -5
Total DVOA 10.9% 7 2.7% 19 12
Dropback EPA 0.107 10 0.122 25 15
Dropback SR 47.0% 16 45.1% 15 -1
Pass DVOA 21.6% 8 9.9% 19 11
Adj. Sack Rate 9.6% 30 7.3% 15 -15
Rush EPA 0.030 3 -0.033 18 15
Rush SR 43.4% 10 39.3% 12 2
Rush DVOA 8.2% 6 -6.1% 17 11
Adj. Line Yards 4.42 18 4.69 21 3
Yards per Play 5.2 20 6 27 7
Points per Game 21.4 18 26.6 28 10

 

Seahawks Offense vs. Giants Defense

Metric Offense Rank Defense Rank Offense Edge
EPA per Play 0.083 5 0.057 24 19
Total SR 46.1% 11 45.0% 21 10
Total DVOA 14.0% 3 11.8% 29 26
Dropback EPA 0.153 5 0.088 20 15
Dropback SR 52.7% 3 45.8% 18 15
Pass DVOA 33.4% 4 14.4% 26 22
Adj. Sack Rate 8.7% 25 5.0% 28 3
Rush EPA -0.030 14 0.007 25 11
Rush SR 35.6% 29 43.7% 22 -7
Rush DVOA 4.9% 10 8.1% 30 20
Adj. Line Yards 4.30 22 5.19 31 9
Yards per Play 6.3 2 5.9 25 23
Points per Game 26.1 5 18.6 6 1

 

Giants at Seahawks: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don't Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 112 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Daniel Jones

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.107 8
AY/A 6.6 20
QBR 62.7 6
ATS Value vs. Avg. 0.5 14

 

Career: Daniel Jones

  • AY/A: 6.3
  • QB Elo per Game: -24.4

2022: Geno Smith

Metric Output Rank
EPA + CPOE 0.16 3
AY/A 8.4 4
QBR 66.8 4
ATS Value vs. Avg. 1.0 11

 

Career: Geno Smith

  • AY/A: 6.3
  • QB Elo per Game: -45.3

Key Matchup: Giants Rush Offense vs. Seahawks Rush Defnse

We all know what the Giants want to do in this game. They want to run the ball. They literally run more than they pass (52.8% rush rate), which is hard to do in today's NFL - but I guess that's what you do when you have Daniel Jones at quarterback and Saquon Barkley at running back.

Barkley leads the league with 143 carries, and we see the Barkley-heavy Giants backfield as having a significant edge over the Seahawks defensive line and linebacking unit.

Rank RBs Opp Defense DL Rank LBs Rank RB-DL Edge RB-LB Edge
2 NYG SEA 26 19 24 17

 

And I can’t believe I’m saying this, but we also shouldn’t overlook Jones as a running threat: He has had six carries in every game this year. Among all quarterbacks, he’s No. 4 in rush attempts (58) and No. 3 in rush yards (343).

Last week, he and Barkley both had 100-plus yards rushing.

The Giants will be without RT Evan Neal (knee) and maybe LG Ben Bredeson (knee) — but neither has a big edge in run blocking over backups RT Tyre Phillips and LG Joshua Ezeudu.

As mediocre as the Giants are on offense - 45.5% success rate (No. 15), 5.2 yards per play (No. 20) - they've been good running the ball, ranking No. 3 in rush EPA per play (0.030), whereas the Seahawks defense has been average against the run (-0.033 rush EPA, No. 18).

I have the Giants power rated ahead of the Seahawks, primarily because I trust HC Brian Daboll more than HC Pete Carroll as a situational decision maker. And as strong as the home-field advantage is at Lumen Field, no team has a three-point HFA in today’s NFL.

So if the Giants can run the ball effectively against the Seahawks, they have a good chance to cover.

Best Line: Giants +3 (+100, Caesars)
First Recommended: Giants +2.5 (-104)
Personal Projection: Giants +2

Freedman's 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests

Here are the five spread bets that (right now) I'm leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.

Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.

  • Buccaneers +1.5 vs. Ravens
  • Broncos +3.5 vs. Jaguars (in London)
  • Dolphins -2.5 at Lions
  • Colts -2.5 vs. Commanders
  • Giants +3.5 at Seahawks

Also in consideration are:

  • Saints +1.5 vs. Raiders
  • Patriots -1.5 at Jets
  • Eagles -10.5 vs. Steelers
  • Rams +1.5 vs. 49ers
  • Bills -10.5 vs. Packers

Look for my tweet update on Sunday before kickoff.

UPDATE (SUN. 10/30): Here’s the tweet.

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