Matthew Freedman’s NHL Playoffs Player Prop Bet Picks: Friday (Stars vs. Golden Knights)
I know nothing about hockey. I cannot emphasize that enough. Despite knowing almost nothing about the sport, I built a “model†(set of spreadsheets) in the late spring of 2019 to project player production for the NHL playoffs, because March Madness and the NFL draft had ended and my degeneracy knows no bounds.
I did well.
Whenever the 2019-20 season started in the fall I didn’t have the bandwidth to build out the model as I’d intended — and then the sport was suspended in the spring because of the pandemic, so I’ve never returned to betting NHL player props.
That changed during the 2023 NHL playoffs. Every day moving forward — with plenty of necessary help from Kelly Kirby, who knows hockey very well — my model will project the lineups for every team and the following stats for each skater and goalie we expect to play.
- Skaters: Goals, Assists, Points, Shots, Blocks
- Goalies: Saves
Basically, all the markets supported on our NHL player props page.
I’ll post my player props in our FREE BettingPros Discord — so be sure to join the Discord for early notice.
If there's a bet that you like or injury situation you think I should be aware of when doing projections, please hit me up on Twitter @MattFtheOracle.
NHL Playoffs Player Prop Bet Picks
Dallas Stars Player Prop Bet Picks
| Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
| Roope Hintz Under 2.5 Shots | 125 | 1 | 1.25 | FD |
| Miro Heiskanen Under 1.5 Blocks | 130 | 1 | 1.3 | DK |
Las Vegas Golden Knights Player Prop Bet Picks
| Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
| Adin Hill Under 27.5 Saves | -112 | 1.12 | 1 | FD |
| Jonathan Marchessault Under 3.5 Shots | -110 | 1.1 | 1 | DK |
| Alex Pietrangelo Under 2.5 Blocks | -110 | 1.1 | 1 | MGM |
| Brayden McNabb Under 2.5 Blocks | -110 | 1.1 | 1 | MGM |
| Shea Theodore Under 1.5 Blocks | 130 | 1 | 1.3 | DK |
Dallas Stars vs. Las Vegas Golden Knights Player Projections
Dallas Stars Player Projections
| Position | Player | Proj Goals | Proj Asts | Proj Pts | Proj Shots | Proj Blocks | Proj Saves |
| 2RD | Colin Miller | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 1.16 | 0.90 | NA |
| 2LD | Esa Lindell | 0.06 | 0.14 | 0.20 | 1.23 | 1.84 | NA |
| 3LW | Evgenii Dadonov | 0.15 | 0.27 | 0.42 | 1.37 | 0.63 | NA |
| 3RW | Jamie Benn | 0.23 | 0.41 | 0.63 | 2.03 | 0.48 | NA |
| 1LW | Jason Robertson | 0.45 | 0.56 | 1.01 | 3.29 | 0.24 | NA |
| 1RW | Joe Pavelski | 0.26 | 0.43 | 0.70 | 1.94 | 0.79 | NA |
| 3RD | Joel Hanley | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.46 | 1.09 | NA |
| 4RW | Joel Kiviranta | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 1.04 | 0.29 | NA |
| 4LW | Luke Glendening | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.79 | 0.86 | NA |
| 2LW | Mason Marchment | 0.16 | 0.20 | 0.36 | 1.85 | 0.57 | NA |
| 2C | Max Domi | 0.17 | 0.29 | 0.46 | 1.71 | 0.27 | NA |
| 1RD | Miro Heiskanen | 0.11 | 0.58 | 0.69 | 2.29 | 1.25 | NA |
| 4C | Radek Faksa | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.94 | 0.86 | NA |
| 1C | Roope Hintz | 0.32 | 0.38 | 0.70 | 2.19 | 0.63 | NA |
| 1LD | Ryan Suter | 0.04 | 0.20 | 0.24 | 0.99 | 1.46 | NA |
| 3LD | Thomas Harley | 0.02 | 0.23 | 0.25 | 1.10 | 1.29 | NA |
| 2RW | Tyler Seguin | 0.18 | 0.28 | 0.46 | 2.14 | 0.31 | NA |
| 3C | Wyatt Johnston | 0.22 | 0.15 | 0.38 | 1.71 | 0.39 | NA |
| Goalie | Jake Oettinger | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 27.0 |
Las Vegas Golden Knights Player Projections
| Position | Player | Proj Goals | Proj Asts | Proj Pts | Proj Shots | Proj Blocks | Proj Saves |
| 1LD | Alec Martinez | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 0.91 | 2.71 | NA |
| 1RD | Alex Pietrangelo | 0.13 | 0.47 | 0.60 | 2.15 | 2.07 | NA |
| 2LD | Brayden McNabb | 0.03 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 1.00 | 2.04 | NA |
| 2RW | Brett Howden | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.92 | 0.55 | NA |
| 2C | Chandler Stephenson | 0.19 | 0.48 | 0.67 | 1.37 | 0.59 | NA |
| 1RW | Ivan Barbashev | 0.23 | 0.28 | 0.51 | 1.42 | 0.48 | NA |
| 1C | Jack Eichel | 0.32 | 0.47 | 0.79 | 3.10 | 0.72 | NA |
| 1LW | Jonathan Marchessault | 0.27 | 0.30 | 0.58 | 2.84 | 0.19 | NA |
| 4RW | Keegan Kolesar | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.17 | 0.77 | 0.35 | NA |
| 2LW | Mark Stone | 0.35 | 0.39 | 0.74 | 2.43 | 0.46 | NA |
| 3LD | Nicolas Hague | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 1.17 | 1.40 | NA |
| 3RW | Nicolas Roy | 0.15 | 0.19 | 0.34 | 1.41 | 0.53 | NA |
| 3LW | Reilly Smith | 0.25 | 0.30 | 0.55 | 2.12 | 0.35 | NA |
| 2RD | Shea Theodore | 0.12 | 0.47 | 0.60 | 2.26 | 1.32 | NA |
| 4C | Teddy Blueger | 0.11 | 0.15 | 0.26 | 1.24 | 0.63 | NA |
| 4LW | William Carrier | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.29 | 1.89 | 0.33 | NA |
| 3C | William Karlsson | 0.18 | 0.38 | 0.56 | 1.81 | 0.52 | NA |
| 3RD | Zach Whitecloud | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.16 | 1.01 | 1.42 | NA |
| Goalie | Adin Hill | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 25.6 |
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