Matthew Freedman’s NHL Playoffs Player Prop Bet Picks: Thursday (5/11)
I know nothing about hockey. I cannot emphasize that enough. Despite knowing almost nothing about the sport, I built a “model†(set of spreadsheets) in the late spring of 2019 to project player production for the NHL playoffs, because March Madness and the NFL draft had ended and my degeneracy knows no bounds.
I did well.
Whenever the 2019-20 season started in the fall I didn’t have the bandwidth to build out the model as I’d intended — and then the sport was suspended in the spring because of the pandemic, so I’ve never returned to betting NHL player props.
That changed during the 2023 NHL playoffs. Every day moving forward — with plenty of necessary help from Kelly Kirby, who knows hockey very well — my model will project the lineups for every team and the following stats for each skater and goalie we expect to play.
- Skaters: Goals, Assists, Points, Shots, Blocks
- Goalies: Saves
Basically, all the markets supported on our NHL player props page.
I’ll post my player props in our FREE BettingPros Discord — so be sure to join the Discord for early notice.
If there’s a bet that you like or injury situation you think I should be aware of when doing projections, please hit me up on Twitter @MattFtheOracle.
NHL Playoffs Player Prop Bet Picks
Carolina Hurricanes vs. New Jersey Devils Player Projections
New Jersey Devils Player Prop Bet Picks
| Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
| Jesper Bratt Over 0.5 Assists | 180 | 1 | 1.8 | CZR |
| Dougie Hamilton Over 2.5 Shots | -118 | 1.18 | 1 | FD |
| Jack Hughes Under 3.5 Shots | -120 | 1.2 | 1 | DK |
| Nico Hischier Under 2.5 Shots | 100 | 1 | 1 | DK |
Carolina Hurricanes Player Prop Bet Picks
| Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
| Brent Burns Under 3.5 Shots | -114 | 1.14 | 1 | FD |
| Sebastian Aho Over 2.5 Shots | -110 | 1.1 | 1 | DK |
| Seth Jarvis Under 2.5 Shots | -122 | 1.22 | 1 | FD |
| Brett Pesce Under 1.5 Blocked Shots | 100 | 1 | 1 | DK |
New Jersey Devils Player Projections
| Position | Player | Proj Goals | Proj Asts | Proj Pts | Proj Shots | Proj Blocks | Proj Saves |
| 3RD | Brendan Smith | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.97 | 1.24 | NA |
| 2LD | Damon Severson | 0.08 | 0.24 | 0.32 | 1.27 | 1.39 | NA |
| 2RW | Dawson Mercer | 0.22 | 0.26 | 0.47 | 1.64 | 0.78 | NA |
| 1RD | Dougie Hamilton | 0.18 | 0.36 | 0.54 | 2.83 | 1.58 | NA |
| 3C | Erik Haula | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.42 | 1.68 | 0.67 | NA |
| 2C | Jack Hughes | 0.31 | 0.41 | 0.72 | 2.87 | 0.46 | NA |
| 1RW | Jesper Bratt | 0.25 | 0.40 | 0.65 | 2.05 | 0.51 | NA |
| 3LD | John Marino | 0.05 | 0.21 | 0.26 | 0.95 | 1.56 | NA |
| 1LD | Jonas Siegenthaler | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 0.90 | 2.38 | NA |
| 4C | Kevin Bahl | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.16 | 0.59 | 1.09 | NA |
| 2RD | Luke Hughes | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 0.43 | 0.97 | NA |
| 3RW | Michael McLeod | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.21 | 0.89 | 0.60 | NA |
| 4LW | Miles Wood | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 1.71 | 0.43 | NA |
| 4RW | Nathan Bastian | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.22 | 1.13 | 0.82 | NA |
| 1C | Nico Hischier | 0.25 | 0.39 | 0.64 | 2.17 | 0.94 | NA |
| 1LW | Ondřej Palát | 0.17 | 0.31 | 0.47 | 1.49 | 0.90 | NA |
| 2LW | Timo Meier | 0.31 | 0.32 | 0.62 | 2.94 | 0.71 | NA |
| 3LW | Tomáš Tatar | 0.20 | 0.28 | 0.48 | 1.68 | 0.46 | NA |
| Goalie | VÃtek VanÄ›Äek | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 29.8 |
Carolina Hurricanes Player Projections
| Position | Player | Proj Goals | Proj Asts | Proj Pts | Proj Shots | Proj Blocks | Proj Saves |
| 2LD | Brady Skjei | 0.14 | 0.26 | 0.41 | 2.12 | 1.08 | NA |
| 1RD | Brent Burns | 0.17 | 0.53 | 0.70 | 2.80 | 1.26 | NA |
| 2RD | Brett Pesce | 0.09 | 0.31 | 0.40 | 1.73 | 1.39 | NA |
| 4LW | Derek Stepan | 0.10 | 0.13 | 0.23 | 1.30 | 0.34 | NA |
| 1LD | Jaccob Slavin | 0.08 | 0.34 | 0.42 | 1.85 | 1.35 | NA |
| 3RW | Jack Drury | 0.11 | 0.16 | 0.27 | 1.90 | 0.42 | NA |
| 3RD | Jalen Chatfield | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 1.18 | 0.68 | NA |
| 2RW | Jesper Fast | 0.15 | 0.23 | 0.38 | 1.05 | 0.51 | NA |
| 2C | Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 0.19 | 0.29 | 0.48 | 1.65 | 0.37 | NA |
| 2LW | Jordan Martinook | 0.16 | 0.23 | 0.39 | 1.84 | 0.45 | NA |
| 3C | Jordan Staal | 0.21 | 0.28 | 0.49 | 1.77 | 0.38 | NA |
| 4RW | Mackenzie MacEachern | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.26 | 1.71 | 0.23 | NA |
| 3LW | Martin NeÄas | 0.31 | 0.47 | 0.79 | 2.39 | 0.34 | NA |
| 4C | Paul Stastny | 0.18 | 0.24 | 0.42 | 1.26 | 0.23 | NA |
| 1C | Sebastian Aho-C | 0.50 | 0.54 | 1.04 | 2.88 | 0.31 | NA |
| 1LW | Seth Jarvis | 0.24 | 0.36 | 0.60 | 2.15 | 0.46 | NA |
| 3LD | Shayne Gostisbehere | 0.14 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 1.66 | 0.92 | NA |
| 1RW | Stefan Noesen | 0.16 | 0.19 | 0.35 | 1.73 | 0.32 | NA |
| Goalie | Frederik Andersen | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 25.5 |
Seattle Kraken vs. Dallas Stars Player Projections
Seattle Kraken Player Prop Bet Picks
| Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
| Jared McCann Under 2.5 Shots | 105 | 1 | 1.05 | DK |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand Under 2.5 Shots | -125 | 1.25 | 1 | DK |
| Jamie Oleksiak Under 2.5 Blocked Shots | 105 | 1 | 1.05 | MGM |
Dallas Stars Player Prop Bet Picks
| Prop | Odds | Units | To Win | Book |
| Roope Hintz Under 2.5 Shots | 105 | 1 | 1.05 | MGM |
| Joe Pavelski Over 0.5 Assists | 135 | 1 | 1.35 | DK |
| Miro Heiskanen Under 1.5 Blocked Shots | -120 | 1.2 | 1 | MGM |
| Ryan Suter Under 1.5 Blocked Shots | 115 | 1 | 1.15 | DK |
Seattle Kraken Player Projections
| Position | Player | Proj Goals | Proj Asts | Proj Pts | Proj Shots | Proj Blocks | Proj Saves |
| 1RD | Adam Larsson | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.21 | 1.27 | 2.41 | NA |
| 2C | Alexander Wennberg | 0.10 | 0.23 | 0.33 | 1.06 | 0.75 | NA |
| 4LW | Brandon Tanev | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.28 | 1.20 | 1.07 | NA |
| 3LD | Carson Soucy | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 0.96 | 1.26 | NA |
| 3LW | Eeli Tolvanen | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.32 | 1.67 | 0.81 | NA |
| 2LW | Jaden Schwartz | 0.16 | 0.26 | 0.42 | 1.92 | 0.48 | NA |
| 2LD | Jamie Oleksiak | 0.05 | 0.13 | 0.18 | 1.06 | 1.59 | NA |
| 4C | Jared McCann | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.47 | 2.05 | 0.55 | NA |
| 1RW | Jordan Eberle | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.42 | 1.77 | 0.52 | NA |
| 3RD | Justin Schultz | 0.04 | 0.23 | 0.28 | 1.14 | 1.25 | NA |
| 1C | Matthew Beniers | 0.20 | 0.31 | 0.51 | 1.54 | 0.69 | NA |
| 2RW | Morgan Geekie | 0.08 | 0.15 | 0.23 | 0.93 | 0.41 | NA |
| 3RW | Oliver Bjorkstrand | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.43 | 2.09 | 0.51 | NA |
| 4RW | Ryan Donato | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.25 | 1.45 | 0.28 | NA |
| 1LW | Tye Kartye | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.83 | 0.00 | NA |
| 1LD | Vince Dunn | 0.11 | 0.32 | 0.43 | 1.82 | 1.35 | NA |
| 2RD | William Borgen | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.86 | 1.28 | NA |
| 3C | Yanni Gourde | 0.16 | 0.26 | 0.43 | 1.51 | 0.54 | NA |
| Goalie | Philipp Grubauer | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 27.6 |
Dallas Stars Player Projections
| Position | Player | Proj Goals | Proj Asts | Proj Pts | Proj Shots | Proj Blocks | Proj Saves |
| 2RD | Colin Miller | 0.06 | 0.27 | 0.33 | 1.34 | 0.82 | NA |
| 2LD | Esa Lindell | 0.08 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 1.35 | 1.55 | NA |
| 3RW | Evgenii Dadonov | 0.27 | 0.37 | 0.64 | 1.87 | 0.39 | NA |
| 3LW | Jamie Benn | 0.30 | 0.43 | 0.74 | 2.09 | 0.61 | NA |
| 1LW | Jason Robertson | 0.56 | 0.75 | 1.31 | 3.13 | 0.26 | NA |
| 1RW | Joe Pavelski | 0.38 | 0.53 | 0.91 | 2.16 | 0.70 | NA |
| 3RD | Joel Hanley | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.49 | 0.83 | NA |
| 4LW | Joel Kiviranta | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.21 | 1.19 | 0.35 | NA |
| 4RW | Luke Glendening | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.19 | 0.97 | 0.77 | NA |
| 2LW | Mason Marchment | 0.23 | 0.44 | 0.67 | 2.03 | 0.34 | NA |
| 2C | Max Domi | 0.25 | 0.47 | 0.72 | 1.97 | 0.24 | NA |
| 1RD | Miro Heiskanen | 0.14 | 0.55 | 0.69 | 2.34 | 1.09 | NA |
| 4C | Radek Faksa | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.28 | 1.13 | 0.65 | NA |
| 1C | Roope Hintz | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.94 | 2.29 | 0.56 | NA |
| 1LD | Ryan Suter | 0.07 | 0.39 | 0.46 | 1.22 | 1.03 | NA |
| 3LD | Thomas Harley | 0.03 | 0.16 | 0.20 | 1.19 | 1.00 | NA |
| 2RW | Tyler Seguin | 0.30 | 0.45 | 0.75 | 2.72 | 0.36 | NA |
| 3C | Wyatt Johnston | 0.32 | 0.24 | 0.57 | 1.88 | 0.35 | NA |
| Goalie | Jake Oettinger | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 23.0 |
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts