Men’s College Basketball: NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction (2024)

Who would have thought so much could have happened in such a short period from Wednesday to now? Oregon stole a bid out of the Pac-12, North Carolina State stole one in the ACC while Duquesne or VCU and Temple or UAB are poised to steal bids from their respective conference title games. It was not a great couple of days for teams on the bubble and some solid programs won't have their names called later today. Remember that many bracketologists fall under recency bias with wins and losses this time of year, but it still is just one game added to a season-long resume. I may not move teams up and down as much as expected, but many programs will be sweating all day until the bracket is revealed.

Here are the games for today, and how they will impact seeding and the overall bracket.

Yale vs. Brown (12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2): After Brown upset Princeton yesterday, Yale finds themselves as a relatively heavy favorite to earn the auto-bid out of the Ivy League. The Bulldogs are a dangerous team with Cinderella potential. A win for Yale would put them comfortably on the 13 line while an upset from Brown would most likely send the Bears to Dayton for the First Four. 

Duquesne vs. VCU (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): In one of the wilder conference tournaments in recent history, the Atlantic-10 is up for grabs between two similarly matched teams. A Rams win would project VCU a 12, borderline 13 while Duquesne with a slightly worse resume would more likely be on the 13 line. Either way, no bubble team is happy with these teams poised to take a precious tournament spot.

Florida vs. Auburn (1:00 p.m. ET, ESPN): If there was any doubt about Florida being a single-digit seed, that has been put to bed with their conference tournament play. Auburn has been collecting solid wins recently, but I am not sure if a title game victory over Florida will move the needle much for their resume. I see them comfortably as a four-seed with a chance to leapfrog into a three-seed.

Temple vs. UAB (3:15 p.m. ET, ESPN): Another bid-stealer-to-be, Temple and UAB clash in a rematch from an interesting matchup earlier this month where UAB won by nearly 30. The Dragons are rightfully favored and I imagine a win would place them as either the last 12 or first 13. An upset for Temple would put the sub-500 Owls on the 16 line. 

Wisconsin vs. Illinois (3:30 p.m. ET CBS): For sure the most interesting game of the day, the Big Ten championship will go to Wisconsin or Illinois. The Illini feel pretty secure as a four-seed to me but I can see Wisconsin jumping into five-seed territory with yet another impressive victory.

Let's check out the auto-bids

Auto-Bids

Morehead State (Ohio Valley)
Longwood (Big South)
Drake (Missouri Valley)
Stetson (Atlantic Sun)
James Madison (Sun Belt)
Samford (Southern)
Wagner (NEC)
Oakland (Horizon)
Charleston (CAA)
Saint Mary's (WCC)
South Dakota State (Summit)
McNeese (Southland)
Colgate (Patriot)
Montana State (Big Sky)
Vermont (America East)
Howard (Mid-Eastern)
Iowa State (Big 12)
New Mexico (Mountain West)
UConn (Big East)
Akron (MAC)
Saint Peter's (MAAC)
NC State (ACC)
Western Kentucky (C-USA)
Oregon (Pacific-12)
Long Beach State (Big West)
Grambling (SWAC)
Grand Canyon (WAC)

The Long Beach State story is pretty awesome and is a team I will be rooting for in the tournament. We have the aforementioned bid stealers, Saint Peter's is back in the dance, and Western Kentucky is back in the tournament for the first time since 2013. 

Otherwise, here's how the rest of the bracket currently sits.

ACC

Locks: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson
Bubble: Virginia, Pittsburgh

Big Ten

Locks: Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Nebraska
Bubble: Michigan State

Big East

Locks: UConn, Marquette, Creighton
Bubble: St. John's, Providence, Villanova

Big 12

Locks: Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Baylor, BYU, Texas Tech, Texas, TCU
Bubble: Oklahoma

Mountain West

Locks: San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State, Nevada
Bubble: None

PAC-12

Locks: Arizona, Washington State
Bubble: Colorado

SEC

Locks: Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina
Bubble: Mississippi State, Texas A&M

All Other Conferences

Locks: Dayton, Gonzaga
Bubble: FAU, Indiana State

From the bid-stealing, some surprising teams have found themselves on the bubble, like Michigan State and FAU. The Big East bubble teams are going to have a difficult time all making it in and I can't imagine Indiana State has stayed a team remaining in the bracket after so many teams could have leapfrogged them in the final seconds. This is one of the biggest bubbles I remember in recent history, so it will be fascinating to see how the committee organizes it all. 

Let's get to the seeding

The Seeding

1 Seeds

• Connecticut (Big East)
• Purdue
• Houston
• North Carolina

2 Seeds

• Tennessee
• Iowa State (Big 12)
• Arizona
• Marquette

3 Seeds

• Baylor
• Kentucky
• Duke
• Creighton

4 Seeds

• Auburn (SEC)
• Alabama
• Illinois (Big Ten)
• Kansas

5 Seeds

• San Diego State
• South Carolina
• BYU
• Wisconsin

6 Seeds

• Texas Tech
• Clemson
• St. Mary's (WCC)
• Utah State

7 Seeds

• Washington State
• Gonzaga
• Florida
• Nevada

8 Seeds

• Dayton
• Nebraska
• Texas
• Boise State

9 Seeds

• Northwestern
• Colorado State
• Mississippi State
• TCU

10 Seeds

• Florida Atlantic
• Michigan State*
• Colorado*
• St. John's*
• Oklahoma*
• North Carolina State (ACC)

11 Seeds

• New Mexico (Mountain West)
• Oregon (Pac-12)
• Drake (Missouri Valley)
• James Madison (Sun Belt)

12 Seeds

• McNeese State (Southland)
• VCU (A10)
• UAB (American)
• Grand Canyon (WAC)

13 Seeds

• Samford (Southern)
• Yale (Ivy)
• College of Charleston (Coastal)
• Vermont (America East)

14 Seeds

• Akron (MAC)
• Long Beach State (Big West)
• Colgate (Patriot)
• Oakland (Horizon)

15 Seeds

• Western Kentucky (CUSA)
• Morehead State (Ohio Valley)
• Longwood (Big South)
• South Dakota State (Summit)

16 Seeds

• Stetson (Atlantic Sun)
• St. Peter's (Metro Atlantic)
• Montana State* (Big Sky)
• Howard* (Mid-Eastern)
• Grambling* (SWAC)
• Wagner* (Northeast)

*Play-in games

First Four Out

• Texas A&M
• Seton Hall
• Virginia
• Indiana State

Next Four Out

• Villanova
• Wake Forest
• Pittsburgh
• Providence

With the number of upsets in conference tournaments, A LOT of teams were kicked out of the field. In my mind, Texas A&M, Seton Hall, Virginia, and Indiana State were all removed from the field in the last two days, simply from the ACC, Pac-12, A10, and American going bonkers. It's a cruel world out there. Depending on how the committee seeds NC State, Oregon, and New Mexico, we could see some play-in games on the 10 line as well which is pretty exciting.

Now let's get to the bracket. Keep in mind there are plenty of weird and wonky rules when it comes to seeding so you may see some small changes when it comes to the actual placement of teams in the bracket.

The Bracket

Midwest Region (Detroit)

1 Purdue
16 Grambling/Wagner

8 Texas
9 Colorado State

5 Wisconsin
12 VCU

4 Kansas
13 Samford

6 Texas Tech
11 New Mexico

3 Creighton
14 Akron

7 Gonzaga
10 Oklahoma/Colorado

2 Marquette
15 Western Kentucky

West (Los Angeles)

1 North Carolina
16 Stetson

8 Dayton
9 Mississippi State

5 BYU
12 UAB

4 Alabama
13 Yale

6 Utah State
11 Drake

3 Baylor
14 Long Beach State

7 Washington State
10 Florida Atlantic

2 Tennessee
15 Morehead State

East (Boston)

1 Connecticut
16 Montana State/Howard

8 TCU
9 Northwestern

5 South Carolina
12 McNeese State

4 Illinois
13 College of Charleston

6 Clemson
11 Oregon

3 Kentucky
14 Colgate

7 Florida
10 North Carolina State

2 Arizona
15 Longwood

South (Dallas)

1 Houston
16 St. Peter's

8 Nebraska
9 Boise State

5 San Diego State
12 Grand Canyon

4 Auburn
13 Vermont

6 St. Mary's
11 James Madison

3 Duke
14 Oakland 

7 Nevada
10 Michigan State/St. John's

2 Iowa State
15 South Dakota State

Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.