Men’s College Basketball: NCAA Tourney Bracketology 2.0 (2024)
Welcome to my second bracketology article of the season! The calendar has officially turned to March which means conference tournaments are kicking off and the sports world turns their eyes to this wonderful sport. College basketball is amazing this time of year as teams jockey for conference tournament standings, hoping to get into the Big Dance.
Bracketology helps identify potential paths for dark horse teams to contend and get ahead of the books, and honestly, it’s just fun. With less than two weeks remaining before Selection Sunday, here are some lingering bracket-related questions:
Who will get the fourth one-seed?: Let’s be honest – you can basically lock in Purdue, UConn, and Houston as one-seeds at this point, it’s just a matter of who gets the overall one. The fourth option is still up in the air. Right now, I have it as Arizona but with Tennessee’s victory at Alabama, the Volunteers aren’t far behind. If both squads collapse then the Tar Heels are also…on their heels.
How many Big East teams can the bubble hold?: Right now, the Big East is packing the bubble. Villanova, Seton Hall, St. John’s, Providence, and Butler are all teams within contention for a tournament spot, but could all miss out as well. The former three are currently on the right side in my mind with the latter two on the wrong side. Butler was looking solid but after their five-game losing streak, only a deep Big East tournament run would save their At-Large bid hopes.
Who will the surprise teams be?: Despite sitting as a current six-seed in Bracket Matrix, Wisconsin is 18-13 and has lost seven of their last nine games. If they handle business against Rutgers, I’m sure Badger fans will sigh with relief, but I can’t imagine the Madison faithful are feeling confident about their team right now. South Florida is a team surging late with the nation’s longest winning streak at 14. Florida Atlantic isn’t locked in yet, Northwestern has recently stalled and I guess Memphis still exists. Historically, the conference tournaments don’t move at-large bids much, but there seems to have been a lot of recent movement in the bracket so it’s anyone’s guess what the committee decides.
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Men’s College Basketball: NCAA Tournament Bracketology 2.0 (2024)
Let’s get to who’s locked, who’s knocking at the door, and who is looking for a miracle:
ACC
Locks: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson
Closing in: Virginia, Wake Forest
Needs a Miracle: Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech
Big Ten
Locks: Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin
Closing in: Northwestern, Michigan State, Nebraska
Needs a Miracle: Iowa
Big East
Locks: UConn, Marquette, Creighton
Closing in: Villanova, Seton Hall, St. John’s
Needs a Miracle: Providence, Butler
Big 12
Locks: Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Baylor, BYU, Texas Tech, Texas
Closing in: TCU, Oklahoma
Needs a Miracle: Cincinnati, Kansas State
Pac-12
Locks: Arizona, Washington State
Closing in: Colorado
Needs a Miracle: Utah
SEC
Locks: Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Florida
Closing in: Mississippi State
Needs a Miracle: Ole Miss
Mid-Majors
Locks: San Diego State, Dayton, Utah State, Gonzaga, St. Mary’s
Closing in: Colorado State, Nevada, Florida Atlantic, New Mexico, Indiana State, South Florida
Needs a Miracle: Drake, Memphis
I am a bit hesitant to hand out too many locks just yet and I use the term “closing in†loosely. For some teams, they need one or two more wins to solidify their tournament status. For others, they need to win some games, but it wouldn’t be the most surprising thing in the world for them to play in Dayton in the first round.
To start, my articles will just have the seeding. As we get closer to the tournament, I will add matchups to allow you to run some fake tournament models.
Let’s get to the seeding
The Seeding
1 Seeds
- Purdue
- Connecticut
- Houston
- Arizona
2 Seeds
- Tennessee
- North Carolina
- Iowa State
- Marquette
3 Seeds
- Kansas
- Creighton
- Duke
- Baylor
4 Seeds
- Alabama
- Auburn
- San Diego State
- Illinois
5 Seeds
- Kentucky
- Clemson
- BYU
- Dayton
6 Seeds
- Wisconsin
- South Carolina
- Washington State
- St. Mary’s (CA)
7 Seeds
- Colorado State
- Utah State
- Texas Tech
- Boise State
8 Seeds
- Florida
- TCU
- Texas
- Oklahoma
9 Seeds
- Michigan State
- Florida Atlantic
- Mississippi State
- Northwestern
10 Seeds
- New Mexico
- Nebraska
- Nevada
- Gonzaga
11 Seeds
- Villanova*
- Seton Hall*
- Virginia*
- Wake Forest*
- South Florida (American)
- Indiana State (Missouri Valley)
12 Seeds
- Richmond (Atlantic 10)
- McNeese State (Southland)
- Grand Canyon (WAC)
- Appalachian State (Sun Belt)
13 Seeds
- Samford (Southern)
- Princeton (Ivy)
- UC Irvine (Big West)
- Akron (MAC)
14 Seeds
- Louisiana Tech (CUSA)
- Vermont (America East)
- College of Charleston (Coastal)
- Colgate (Patriot)
15 Seeds
- Youngstown St. (Horizon)
- Morehead State (Ohio Valley)
- Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
- High Point (Big South)
16 Seeds
- Quinnipiac (Metro Atlantic)
- South Dakota State (Summit)
- Norfolk State* (Mid-Eastern)
- Merrimack* (Northeast)
- Eastern Kentucky* (Atlantic Sun)
- Southern* (SWAC)
*Play-in games
Bold = Conference Champions
First Four Out
- Providence
- Utah
- St. John’s
- Drake
Next Four Out
- Mississippi
- Cincinnati
- Colorado
- Iowa
With conference tournament play starting this week, bids will finally start being handed out for March Madness. This is how I see the current field sitting. The Mountain West has a strong representation while I am not as confident in the Big East bubble team resumes.
Regarding betting value right now, I love Iowa State (+5000 on bet365). They have been so sneaky good that most people don’t even realize they have a shot at a one-seed if they run the Big 12 tournament. Beware the Cyclones.
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