Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Odds & Game Pick (2021)
The Miami Dolphins are dreading this repeat of their Week 2 matchup against the Buffalo Bills. During Week 2, the Bills crushed the Dolphins 35-0 in Miami. The difference this time around is that Miami will have Tagovailoa back starting at quarterback. There has been drama around Tagovailoa lately. Even trade rumors after Tagovailoa came out and said he does not feel wanted by the Dolphins. That adds an extra element when betting on this game. The starting quarterback might not be thinking 100% about the game during prep against Buffalo. There are lots of things to consider going into this matchup.
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Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Details
- Opening Lines: Buffalo Bills -7, Total 49
- Current Lines: Buffalo Bills -14, Total 49.5
- Last Game: September 19, 2019, Buffalo Bills 35-0
Overview
Buffalo has been dominant this year but has shown flashes of vulnerability. They are one of the top offenses in the league averaging 34 points per game, and their defense is giving up 16 points per game. The last time they played the Dolphins, they didn't allow them to score. Keeping the Dolphins scoreless twice in one season is difficult. Buffalo is going to force the Dolphins to throw the ball. With Tagovailoa not playing well this season, and Buffalo has been the best passing defense in the NFL. They allow 180.5 passing yards per game. That number goes down to 150 passing yards at home.
The Dolphins have had a rough season this year. The Dolphins are 1-6, and the defense that was one of the best last year has been one of the worst this year. The Dolphins are giving up an average of 30 points per game. Teams have been able to do whatever they want against their defense. They are struggling to stop the run and the pass. The worst part is that they have been equally bad on offense. They are averaging 18 points per game and have struggled to run the ball. They have 566 rushing yards total this year, and their lead rusher has 243 yards. Buffalo has a great defense, and the Dolphins will struggle to find the endzone against them.
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Bottom Line
The Bills win this game. They crushed the Dolphins the first time they played in Miami, and now they play them in Buffalo. There is not any value in betting them to win. The spread has moved too much to bet that as well. Fourteen points is a lot to cover in the NFL. The Bills crushed the Dolphins last time, which means there is too much uncertainty on the spread. That leaves the total points as the best value in this game. The Bills are going to score. The Dolphins statistically will find the endzone in this game. To be safe, the teaser on the under has good value. These teams average 52 together. To protect from any garbage time touchdowns, I teased it over 52.
Pick: Total Points Under 53 (-165)
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Cameron Lynch is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Cameron, check out his archive and follow him @captron26.