Michigan vs. Penn State: College Football Week 11 Odds & Picks (Saturday)
Gear up for another awesome weekend of college football action with BettingPros! We’ll have you covered with all of our top picks for the week along with our projected spreads and totals to help guide your college football bets. Below are our top picks and predictions for Saturday’s game: Michigan vs. Penn State.
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Top College Football Odds & Picks: Michigan vs. Penn State
Michigan vs. Penn State
Michigan has run through its schedule with no resistance. They’ve managed to produce the #1 ranking in SP+, total EPA and point differential as well as a host of other statistics. Oddly enough, this game against Penn State will be the first time they’ve really been tested against a ranked opponent. Penn State has been a bit of a doppelgänger to Michigan this season. Both teams have elite defenses and solid offenses that have allowed them to win with ease. It’s difficult to really differentiate between these teams except at one position, the quarterback. Depending on your flavor, Michigan QB JJ McCarthy has been the best signal caller in the country. His 0.640 EPA per attempt is best in the nation by a fairly wide margin and his total EPA is in the same sphere at Michael Penix and Jayden Daniels. When pressured he has the wheels to make the defense pay. Last season he ran for 8.1 yards per attempt against this Nittany Lion defense and if the game script calls for it he won’t be afraid to make them pay. Penn State QB Drew Allar underwhelmed through the first seven games of the year, culminating in a 191 yards in 42 attempts performance against another elite defense in Ohio State. In the last game and a quarter against Maryland and Indiana, he has started to show an ability to throw the ball down the field so perhaps he’s found something, but the Michigan defense is a different animal. This won’t turn out like the 41-17 romping in Ann Arbor last year, but JJ McCarthy will be the difference and Michigan should be able to leave Happy Valley with a win and a cover.
Pick: Michigan -4
-Ryan Rodeman
Best Ways to Bet College Football for Beginners
Game Total
Bettors new to the hobby can be confused by spreads, but game totals are simple. Every football game has a total posted for the combined final score between the two teams. Bettors have the option to choose the OVER or UNDER, generally at -110 odds (risk: $110; win: $100). So if the total is 42 and you take the OVER, you need 43 points to win the bet. If you put a bet down on the over to win $100 and it goes over, you get back the money you initially risked, plus $100. If it stayed under, you would have lost your $110 and that's it. If by chance the game ended with 42 total points, it's called a push; when a game pushes, you get the money you risked back but nothing more.
ie: California vs. Illinois, Over 42 or Under 42
tip: Over bets can be a really fun social event with your buddies. Have everyone throw in a few bucks, then take the over together. Instead of getting pumped when one side scores, everyone is pumped for ANY score, all game.
Moneyline
The moneyline is the easiest way to test your college football knowledge: who will win the game? That's it. The moneyline doesn't use favorites or underdogs, it's totally straight up. That said, the risk-reward can be challenging because they're weighted. Instead of every game being around -110, like game totals and spreads, moneylines vary depending on the matchup.
For our example, California was favored by seven points over Illinois, meaning oddsmakers think the Golden Bears are a touchdown better than the Fighting Illini. If you took Cal on the moneyline, points don't matter, they just need to win the game. But because it's safer to take them straight-up without points, you'll have to risk more when you make the bet - remember, they're seven points better than Illinois in the eyes of the oddsmakers. In this case, Cal is -280 on the moneyline, so if you want to win $100, you have to risk $280. On the flip side, moneyline bets can be valuable when taking the underdog because it's a riskier bet - they're seven points worse than their opponent. In this case, Illinois is the underdog - +220 on the moneyline. You'd win $220 on a $100 bet if you picked Illinois on the moneyline and they pulled off the upset.
ie: California (ML -280) vs. Illinois (ML +220)
tip: Check their history against one another. Keep an eye on the injury report and the weather.
Player Props
Player props are some of the most exhilarating bets you can place during a college football game, but they're also easy to understand. For major conferences, you'll have a wide array of options to choose from. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, and sometimes tight ends will have props to choose from. It's simple, fun and easy to follow, and odds on player props don't vary as much as moneylines. Generally, prop bets are in the -110 range like generic spread and total bets.
ie: How many passing yards will Brandon Peters have against California? Over 250 or Under 250
tip: Check how players have performed in the situation they're going to be in. Use split stats on any reliable site to see their numbers at home, on a neutral-site, in December, etc.
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