Minnesota vs. Purdue: College Football Week 11 Odds & Picks (2023)
We are extremely close to breaking through and having a monster week of our Rush Rate Picks.
We went 4-3 ATS last week and missed our teaser and parlay.
It is another solid week to jump into enticing matchups with familiar teams. Let’s dive into our College Football Week 11 Rush Rate picks! And below we look into Minnesota vs. Purdue.
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College Football Week 11 Picks: Minnesota vs. Purdue
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Minnesota vs. Purdue
Minnesota
- 20th in RROE on Standard Downs (+7.7%)
- 33rd in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
- 7th in RROE on Passing Downs (+13.7%)
- 79th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs
Purdue
- 34th in Def Power Success Rate
- 46th in Def Stuff Rate
- 49th in Def Line Yards
- 49th in Def Standard Downs Rate
- 62nd in Def Rush Success Rate
- 89th in Def Rush IsoPPP
- 82nd in Def PFF Rush Grade
- 43rd in EPA/Rush Att on Standard Downs
- 108th in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs
Minnesota let us down horrendously last week, but we are returning to the well again. Purdue’s rush defense isn’t abysmal, but it is not formidable. They are slightly above average. What concerns me most is their 108th ranking in EPA/Rush Att on Passing Downs because Minnesota runs the ball at an even higher elevated rate on Passing Downs. I am going to go with a team with a concrete identity that should be able to break through in this matchup.
Bet: Minnesota ML (-108) + Minnesota for Teasers
Record
- ATS: 17-13 (+2.70 units)
- Parlay: 0-4 (-6.50 units)
- Teaser: 1-3 (-6.10 units)
- Overall: -9.90 units
Overview
The thought process for anyone reading this for the first time is simple: We target teams with a top-30 RROE in Standard Downs and Passing Downs. We will look at six main advanced defensive statistics to measure how successful the matchup is: Defensive Stuff Rate, Defensive Line Yards, Defensive Rush Success Rate, Defensive Power Success Rate, Defensive IsoPPP (explosiveness), Standard Downs Rate and PFF Rush Defense.
There are several angles at play:
- An underdog with a high RROE vs. an opponent who is below average in the defensive rush categories. They will have the opportunity to limit possessions and control the game script.
- A favorite with a top-30 RROE vs. an opponent who is stout against the run. They will be forced to employ a game plan that does not fit their overall identity. A favorite's plan B strategy will never be as dangerous as its preferred method of offense.
- An underdog with a top-30 RROE vs. a stout defense. The favorite in this scenario has the opportunity to blow a game out of reach and leave the underdog behind the proverbial eight-ball.
- A favorite with a top-30 RROE vs. an opponent that is lackluster in the aforementioned categories. In this scenario, we prefer the favorite to be, at most, a 10-point favorite.
The reason for this thinking is that high RROE will always lead to fewer possessions and overall points. The overall margin for error will be slimmer. This allows us to simplify the handicapping perspective and focus on unbalanced teams.
Here's a summary of the teams we are looking for:
- Underdogs with a top-30 RROE vs. below-average defenses
- Underdogs with a stout defense vs. a top-30 RROE favorite
- Favorites with a stout defense vs. a top-30 RROE underdog
- Favorites with a top-30 RROE (not greater than -10) vs. a below-average defense
Glossary
- Stuff Rate: Tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage
- Def Line Yards: Yards directly influenced by the defensive line
- Def Rush Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on second down and 100% on third and fourth down.
- Rush IsoPPP: Explosive rush plays allowed (15 yards or more)
- Def Power Success Rate: The percentage of running plays on third or fourth down from two yards or less in which an offense either converted into a first down or scored a TD. First and second down and goal plays within the two-yard line are also included.
- PFF Rush Defense: PFF film-graded metric
- Standard Downs: First down, second and six or less, third/fourth and four or less (Average rush rate is 60%)
- Passing Downs: Second and seven or more, and third/fourth down and five or more (Average rush rate is 40%)
- RROE: Rush Rate Over Expectancy (Percentage over expected rush rate in situations)
- EPA/Att: Expected Points Added per rushing attempt
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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!