Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Texas A&M Aggies Odds & Game Pick (2021)

At first, it didn’t seem like the loss of Haynes King would affect the Texas A&M offense. After watching the Aggies take on Arkansas last week, you can tell that the Aggies are missing their starting quarterback in Haynes King. King is going to be out a little longer due to a “crack in his lower leg.” The offense struggled behind new quarterback Zach Calzada who has thrown three interceptions on the season on just 108 attempts.

Just like Texas A&M, however, Mississippi State lost a crucial SEC game against LSU, at home, 28-25. The score looks like the game was close but LSU had it won from the start. With two straight losses against Memphis and LSU, is Mississippi State a real threat against Texas A&M?

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Details

• Opening Line: Texas A&M -8.5, O/U 46.5
• Current Line: Texas A&M -7, O/U 47.5
• Last meeting: October 17, 2020, Texas A&M 28, Mississippi State 14

Overview 

Texas A&M has always been known for its defense. That hasn’t changed. The defense has allowed just 9.3 points per game this season along with allowing under 300 yards per game. They’ve shut down Kent State to 10 points, Colorado to seven points, and New Mexico to no points. Once the Aggies faced a real test, Arkansas found a way to score 20 points, and it was enough to get the win against Texas A&M.

On offense, A&M is without starting quarterback Haynes King and it’s serious enough that he’ll be missing half of the season with a leg injury. The offense under Zach Calzada hasn’t been impressive and that’s also due to the fact that the Aggies haven’t been great in pass protection, run block, and have minimal talent at receiver.

Mississippi State, on the other hand, will rarely run the ball. They’re a pass-first offense that has quarterback Will Rogers shining with 11 touchdowns and 1,454 yards passing. He’s thrown two interceptions but has been very solid delivering the football this season.

Just like A&M, there’s just not much talent on the floor offensively. Guys aren’t making plays for Rogers and the offense is only averaging 28.3 points per game. You’d think it would be higher in this type of offense.

They’re also allowing 25.8 points on defense and have now lost two straight games. The defense has looked solid against the run, allowing just 71.3 yards per game. They’ve also done fine in coverage for the most part, however, because the pass rush is so poor, the coverage eventually breaks down, allowing big plays down the field.

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Trends 

• Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss.
• Bulldogs are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
• Under is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games overall.

Bottom Line 

This could be the game where Calzada figures some things out offensively. The Bulldogs just don’t get enough pressure on the quarterback and that’s huge news for Calzada. He struggles under pressure and doesn’t exactly get the ball out of his hands fast.

With limited pressure, the coverage will break down and he can find some open receivers.

Even a solid offense like Arkansas only scored 20 points against A&M and despite Rogers playing very well offensively for the Bulldogs, it’s going to be very hard finding answers against one of the best defenses in the nation. The Aggies have been elite in coverage, allowing just 119.5 yards per game in the air.

That’s what the Bulldogs want to do. They’re looking to throw the ball 50 times. It’ll be a massive struggle for Mississippi State on offense if Rogers is throwing 50 times in this game.

Pick: Texas A&M -7 (-110)

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Jason Radowitz is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him @Jason_Radowitz.