Missouri vs. Utah State: 2023 NCAA Tournament Best Bets & Picks
March Madness is officially here! The 2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket has been announced, and the teams are lining up for the Big Dance. Let’s take a look at the early odds, preview, and predictions for the 2023 NCAA Tournament Round 1 game: Missouri vs. Utah State.
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2023 March Madness Odds, Preview & Predictions: Missouri vs. Utah State
Missouri vs. Utah State Odds, Spread & Match Up Overview
- Missouri Spread: +2.5
- Utah State Spread: -2.5
- Missouri Moneyline: +110
- Utah State Moneyline: -145
- Game Over/Under: 153.5
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Missouri 2023 NCAA Tournament Betting Preview
With Dennis Gates coming over from Cleveland State for his first season as a power-conference coach, expectations were up in the air for what the new-look Missouri team would bring this season. Entering the tournament, Missouri’s season so far has to be regarded as a success considering the number of growing pains the Tigers went through in the offseason.
Mizzou might be one of the more jekyll-and-hyde teams in the tourney when comparing its offense and defense. Offensively, the Tigers rank in the top 15 in efficiency, scoring from anywhere on the court with a fast pace that makes them thrilling to watch. Defensively, they rank outside the top 150, allowing teams to shoot above average from beyond the arc while surrendering a ridiculously high number of rebounds. A matchup against any team that rebounds effectively will be kryptonite to this Mizzou squad — and we’ve seen the Tigers lose twice to Texas A&M. Outside the SEC, the Tigers really didn’t play anyone, ranking 303rd in nonconference strength of schedule this season and not having played a single neutral-court game the entire regular season.
Historically, teams with extreme differences between their offense and defense have not fared well in the tournament, and the Tigers have one of the worst defenses in the field. The floor is incredibly low for Mizzou, but their high-powered offense does make them an intriguing option for a sneaky tournament run.
Utah State 2023 NCAA Tournament Betting Preview
Coming out of the Mountain West, Utah State’s metrics are a lot better than its double-digit seeding. The Aggies rank inside the top 25 on a lot of analytical websites. Their perimeter-based offense was a big reason they started the year with nine straight wins, with Steven Ashworth being one of the best shooters in the nation.
The Aggies are one of the most consistent teams in the country, ranking in the top 50 in the consistency metric. Utah State is also playing its best basketball right now, ranking in the top 50 in the momentum metric. On defense, the Aggies allow very little inside, ranking in the top 30 in opponents’ near-proximity percentage, and they eliminate second-chance looks. Where they struggle is on the perimeter, allowing teams to shoot above 35 percent from beyond the arc.
If you want to blindly trust the numbers, Utah State is a fair bet for a couple of upsets. But Utah State’s soft strength of schedule and sub-75th-ranked defense make me hesitant to blindy trust the Aggies.
Missouri vs. Utah State 2023 NCAA Tournament Predictions
The Missouri Tigers finished the regular season earning four straight victories over lower-tier SEC opponents. In the SEC Tournament, Missouri rallied past Tennessee but lost to Alabama in the semifinals. The offense will always be elite for the Tigers. They've shot 36.1% from downtown while shooting nearly 56% from inside the arc. The Tigers have also been tremendous at the foul line.
The issue is Missouri doesn't get to the foul line often and gets demolished on the defensive glass. Meanwhile, Utah State plays very similarly to Missouri, earning 38.5% from deep and 54.1% from inside the arc. Both teams are terrific offensive teams. But Utah State is much more disciplined on the glass and should be able to get more stops inside the arc. The Aggies held teams to 45.9% from inside the arc this season.
I'll back the 10-seeded Utah State in what should be an electric game offensively.
Missouri vs. Utah State 2023 NCAA Tournament Picks
Utah State ML
More Round 1 & First Four Betting Picks & Predictions
South
- #16 Texas A&M-CC vs. #16 Southeast Missouri St. (First Four)
- #8 Maryland vs. #9 West Virginia
- #5 San Diego St. vs. #12 Charleston
- #4 Virginia vs. #13 Furman
- #6 Creighton vs. #11 NC State
- #3 Baylor vs. #14 UC Santa Barbara
- #7 Missouri vs. #10 Utah State
- #2 Arizona vs. #15 Princeton
East
- #8 Memphis vs. #9 Florida Atlantic
- #5 Duke vs. #12 Oral Roberts
- #4 Tennessee vs. #13 Louisiana
- #6 Kentucky vs. #11 Providence
- #3 Kansas State vs. #14 Montana State
- #7 Michigan State vs. #10 USC
- #2 Marquette vs. #15 Vermont
West
- #1 Kansas vs. #16 Howard
- #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Illinois
- #5 Saint Mary’s vs. #12 VCU
- #4 UConn vs. #13 Iona
- #11 Arizona State vs. #11 Nevada (First Four)
- #3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Grand Canyon
- #7 Northwestern vs. #10 Boise State
- #2 UCLA vs. #15 UNC Asheville
Midwest
- #1 Houston vs. #16 Northern Kentucky
- #8 Iowa vs. #9 Auburn
- #5 Miami vs. #12 Drake
- #4 Indiana vs. #13 Kent State
- #11 Mississippi State vs. #11 Pitt (First Four)
- #3 Xavier vs. #14 Kennesaw State
- #7 Texas A&M vs. #10 Penn State
- #2 Texas vs. #15 Colgate
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