MLB Best Bets, Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (7/27)
The second half of the season is underway, and now it's crunch time. With the trade deadline just a few days away, this is when teams need to figure out if they're buyers or sellers, and these games can determine that.
Thursday's Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Angels (-118) at Detroit Tigers (+100) | O/U 8.5 (-122/+100)
With the Angels showing themselves as buyers with the acquisition of Lucas Giolito, they've said Shohei Ohtani is off the market. While his offensive numbers have him as a heavy favorite in the American League MVP race, the pitching has taken a dip. He's been roughed up over his last three starts going 1-2 with a 7.71 ERA, 7.32 FIP, and six home runs allowed.
The revenge game is in play for Michael Lorenzen, who was in the Angels' rotation last season. His second year as a full-time starter has been the best of his career, earning him his first all-star appearance. Two big changes have helped this season - better control and the 6.5 walk rate is his best since 2016, and his slider, his second go-to pitch, is getting a 27.4% whiff rate.
After a rough June, Lorenzen has been great in July by allowing no runs through 18.2 innings. Ohtani has been roughed up by plummeting Pirates lineup and underwhelming Padres offense.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline (+100)
Washington Nationals (+164) at New York Mets (-196) | O/U 9.5 (+100/-122)
Josiah Gray has been the Nationals’ best starter, so you wonder if this is the last start for him in Washington. He isn't an overpowering pitcher, but he's phenomenal at inducing the groundball at 43%, and a career-low 5.1 barrels per plate appearance shows opponents aren't making solid contact.
The Mets must be happy with their purchase of Kendai Senga from Japan, thanks to a 3.27 ERA and strikeout rate in the 88th percentile. The significant problem continues to be the walks, and he's currently on a streak of allowing three or more walks in six straight starts.
Both pitchers have been great in their previous starts against their opponent, and both games hit the under.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-122)
Chicago Cubs (-116) at St. Louis Cardinals (-102) | O/U 9 (-115/-105)
Justin Steele has been fantastic and is at his best in his third season. What's been the difference is getting command of his pitches, dropping his walk from 9.8% last season to 5.0 this year. He has been phenomenal against the Cardinals, winning all three starts and allowing six earned in 12.1 innings.
Miles Mikolas has two all-star seasons, and each following year he has a 4.00+ ERA. He's coming off a 2022 all-star season. His last start was against the Cubs, and he was shelved, allowing 11 hits, five earned in five innings.
Pick: Cubs ML (-116)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:
- MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
- TBT Basketball Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- WNBA Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
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