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MLB Best Bets, Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (7/25)

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The second half of the season is underway, and now it's crunch time. With the trade deadline less than a week away, this is when teams need to figure out if they're buyers or sellers, and these games can determine that.

Tuesday's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

 Miami Marlins (+170) at Tampa Bay Rays (-200) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105)

Edward Cabrera’s first start back from a right shoulder injury went well by allowing one earned and racking up six strikeouts in five innings against the Cardinals. He has some incredible movement to his pitches, including a curveball from which he's getting a 41.0% whiff rate. However, his problem remains the control, as evidenced by a 14.2% walk rate. 

Although he only has ten starts because of an injury start the season, Tyler Glasnow has proven his efficiency by allowing three or fewer runs in nine of those starts. He continues to mow down batters with a strikeout rate in the 97th percentile and a whiff rate in the 98th. This game might be challenging, with the Marlins having the fourth-lowest whiff rate and seventh-lowest strikeout rate.

The odds largely swing in the Rays’ favor, and it should be with this matchup. I would have more confidence in the Marlins if their lineup was slumping. Miami’s BABIP is nearly 30 points lower over the last three games than their season average.

Pick: Rays -1.5 (-125)

 Pittsburgh Pirates (+230) at San Diego Padres (-275) | O/U 8.5 (-105/-115)

Blake Snell has been nearly perfect over the last couple of months with a 0.71 ERA and 2.30 FIP while opposing batters have a .488 OPS in his previous 11 starts. The Padres have even gotten better with their run support during this stretch. The significant improvement from his first couple of seasons is the reduced number of hard hits, which dropped from a 39.5% hard-hit rate last season to 33.5% now, and with the swing-and-miss stuff staying on par, it's made him unhittable.

In his 19th year in the MLB, Rich Hill is not a shutdown pitcher, but he's better than other options. In his last start against San Diego, he was good, allowing four earned in six innings to get the win.

That game did not have Snell on the mound. The lack of consistency in the Pirates lineup over the last couple of months does not give me confidence they'll be able to get to him.

Pick: Padres -1.5 (-130)

Oakland Athletics (+230) at San Francisco Giants (-275) | O/U 8.5 (-105/-115)

Alex Cobb has been an important piece in this Giants' rotation as they compete for a division title. He resembles his days with Tampa Bay, having command of his pitches, and his 6.3 walk rate could be his best full-season finish since 2018. He's been great over the last two months, with the team going 10-2 in his last 12 starts.

Ken Waldichuk's first stint in the rotation did not go well, and he went 1-3 with a 6.85 ERA in nine starts. So far, the second time around hasn’t been better, with a 7.88 ERA in his last two starts. His slider and changeup are effective pitches, getting over a 30% whiff rate on each, but he leads with his fastball (53.7% of his pitches), and it tends to creep over the plate, and he's allowed 11 home runs on that pitch.

We won't be comparing this matchup to the 1989 World Series as the Giants cruise to a win. 

Pick: Giants -1.5 (-115)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:


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