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MLB Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (5/14)

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There’s nothing better than having sports on all throughout the day. I know all of you football fans agree.

Today’s slate is filled with early games and plenty of value.

I’ve added a couple of best bets that I’ll be on today. Let’s get after it!

Check out MLB Home Run Odds for all players in today's games >>

Today’s Best MLB Bets

All wagers are 1 unit
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

The San Francisco Giants will send Logan Webb to the mound for today’s matchup. Webb has a 3-5 record with a 3.46 ERA. He’s been a bit unlucky over the course of the season. But I like his chances tonight.

Webb has had a 3.03 xFIP over the last 30 days. He’s struck out close to 24% of batters and has walked under 4% in the last month. He’s also adding nearly 65% of ground balls when the ball is batted into play and has limited line drives to 14.1%. He’s been elite analytically over the last 30 days.

Arizona’s been very good at limiting strikeouts. But Webb doesn’t need a whole lot of strikeouts to be dominant. He needs ground balls. The Arizona lineup has hit nearly 48% of ground balls over the last 30 days against righties using their projected lineup.

On the other hand, Brandon Pfaadt is headed to the mound for the Diamondbacks today. Pfaadt is a young pitcher with high expectations. However, he’s pitched in two games and has a 12.10 ERA in 9.2 innings. Pfaadt has allowed 16 hits and 13 earned runs with only six strikeouts and three walks in nearly 10 innings. Maybe he’s just not ready yet.

San Francisco has hit a .220 ISO and wOBA of .325 with their projected lineup against righties. Meanwhile, Pfaadt has a 7.08 xFIP over the last month with limited ground balls and high line drives.

Give me the Giants.

Bet: Giants (-142)

San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The San Diego Padres have been everything but consistent at the plate this year. The Padres are hitting a .152 ISO and wOBA of .296 against righties over the last month. Only Juan Soto has a wOBA higher than .312 against righties. That’s not going to get the Padres where they want to be.

San Diego will work some walks against Tony Gonsolin and should be able to put the ball in play against Gonsolin. But Gonsolin has done very well limiting extra-base hits. He’s limited his wOBA and ISO against both sides of the plate.

On the other hand, Ryan Weathers will get the call for the Padres. He’s a lefty with a 4.62 xFIP over the last month. Weathers has allowed nearly 40% of line drives while only earning 30.4% of ground balls. Plus, the Dodgers are hitting a .232 ISO collectively against lefties.

Los Angeles doesn’t get on base at a high rate against lefties. But they’ll hit enough extra-base hits to score runs for Gonsolin. Righties have hit a .355 wOBA and ISO of .200 against Weathers over his last 28 plate appearances against them.

The Dodgers should have seven righties in their lineup tonight. Take the Dodgers to win big.

Bet: Dodgers -1.5 (+106)

Check out our other best bets for Sunday:

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