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MLB Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (7/9)

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There are going to be some ugly weather spots early today. However, there are still plenty of solid weather spots that we can attack with today’s MLB slate.

We’ll tip-toe around the questionable games.

Here are some best bets to consider for today’s MLB slate.

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>

Sunday’s Best MLB Bets

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. All wagers are 1 unit.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago White Sox

The St. Louis Cardinals will give Steven Matz another shot at starting. Matz has performed better in the bullpen recently and will now begin today’s game. He’s facing a White Sox lineup that will likely have eight righties in it.

Matz has allowed a .174 ISO and wOBA of .390 to 236 righties on the season. He’s only allowed those righties to hit a .065 ISO and wOBA of .304 over the last month. But that’s from coming out of the bullpen.

The White Sox have five batters hitting a wOBA of at least .331 against lefties and five batters hitting at least a .182 ISO. They’ve only got three batters striking out more than 22.2% in their projected lineup against lefties over the last month too.

I like Chicago’s potential to put some runs on the board against Matz today.

On the other hand, Lucas Giolito will get the call for the White Sox. Although he’s a righty, he’s struggled to get righties out over the last month. Giolito has allowed righties a .190 ISO and wOBA of .330 over the previous month. He’s watched lefties hit a .214 ISO and woBA of .312 on the season.

There are ways to attack Giolito.

The Cardinals’ projected lineup has smacked a .191 ISO and wOBA of .360 against righties over the last month. Like the White Sox, they’ve only got three batters striking out more than 21.6% of the time against righties in the previous month.

I’ll back the Over in this game.

Bet: Over 9 (-118)

Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins

Kyle Gibson will take the hill for the Orioles today. Gibson has increased his strikeouts over the last month and has continued to keep his walks down. But the one thing that has changed in the previous 30 days is his numbers against righties.

Righties are hitting a .236 ISO and wOBA of .425 over the last 30 days against Gibson. Meanwhile, the Twins are getting high power from righties like Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. The lefties in the lineup have hit a .228 ISO and wOBA of .363 over the last month against righties. That’s still big news. Gibson has been better against lefties recently, but on the season, he’s allowed a .161 ISO and wOBA of .343. The Twins have a good enough offense as long as they keep the strikeouts down.

Gibson isn’t a high-strikeout pitcher.

On the other hand, Joe Ryan has struck out 27% of batters in the last month. He’s had his struggles against righties in the previous month, too; however, the Orioles project to send out just two righties against Ryan today. Ryan has held lefties to a .093 ISO and wOBA of .234 this season and has kept these numbers about par over the last month.

Ryan has a clear advantage on this side of things.

Back the Twins on the moneyline.

Bet: Twins (-162)

Check out our other best bets for Sunday:

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