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MLB Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (5/11)

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The weather is getting warmer, and we’re fully into the MLB season. Let’s look at interesting matchups for tonight.

Today’s Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

San Diego Padres (-120) at Minnesota Twins (+100) | O/U 8 (-110/-110)

The Twins currently hold first place in AL Central, but they’re only three games above .500 so it’s a small margin. The offense has been horrendous this year, as they sit in last in batting average and near the bottom in OBP and SLG. They are a home-run-or-bust type of lineup, being eighth in hard hit percentage and ninth in home run percentage. Bailey Ober has three great starts this year, allowing one run or fewer in each, but those three teams are in the bottom seven in wRC.

The Padres aren’t at the top, but they are 16th in wRC. The NL West is another division that looks wide open, and although San Diego is 19-18, they’re just 2.5 games behind first. Yu Darvish is having a fantastic season, allowing two or fewer runs in four of six starts, and his record would be better if the Padres weren’t shut out in a couple of his starts.

Minnesota has the sixth-highest strikeout rate against right-handers, which will be tough against Darvish and his 27.2 strikeout percentage.

Pick: Padres Moneyline (-120)

Tampa Bay Rays (-125) at New York Yankees (+105) | O/U 8.5 (-110/-110)

This will be a pitching rematch from last Saturday. Domingo German went five innings in that game, allowing two runs on four hits. On the other side, Drew Rasmussen was even better, going 5.2 scoreless innings and allowing four hits.

This was the game in which the Rays’ bullpen gave up three runs in the ninth to take the loss. 

The Yankees’ bats came alive this week, but that was against Oakland and they will now face the best pitching in baseball. That game has been the only time the Rays scored first and lost, but don’t expect that to happen here; the Rays will grab a win.

Pick: Rays Moneyline (-125)

New York Mets (-195) at Cincinnati Reds (+165) | O/U 10 (-115/-105)

The Mets are on an abysmal run, losing six of their last eight games and losing ground in the NL East. During this eight-game run, they are batting .218 with a .668 OPS. Kodai Senga is a fun pitcher to watch and he has some fall-off-the-table type pitches. He hasn’t been able to harness it yet, with his walk rate in the eighth percentile and chase rate in the 13th.

This will make it tough, as the Reds have the fourth-lowest chase percentage. They also have the lowest first-pitch swing percentage, which means they will work the count against Senga. Derek Law will get a spot start for the Reds, and as someone who hasn’t pitched more than three innings, it likely means he’ll be used as an opener.

 The run total is high, but all signs point to this being a very high-scoring matchup.

Pick: Over 10 (-115)

Take a look at our other best bets for Thursday:


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