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MLB Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (5/18)

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The weather is getting warmer, and we’re fully into the MLB season. Let’s look at a few interesting matchups for tonight.

Today’s Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

New York Yankees (+110) at Toronto Blue Jays (-130) | O/U 9 (-105/-115)

This series did not start well for the Blue Jays, but they got a win with a walk-off last night and now have a chance to split the series. They’re still trying to bring in some consistency and while the offense has been helping, the pitching has not. Jose Berrios has epitomized this. After a tough start to the season, he has improved by allowing two or fewer earned runs in five of his last six.

At worst, the Yankees will split back-to-back series against division rivals which is good compared to their prior performance. Having Aaron Judge back in the lineup has been big, and he has five home runs in his last four games. Nestor Cortes is not having that same magical season as in 2022, and he’s been rocked by allowing 15 earned runs in his 14 innings.

Overall, we’ve seen the offense be the catalyst in this series. Both of these pitchers do not have good track records against their opponent, with Cortes allowing a .385 wOBA to the Toronto roster and Berrios with a .334 against New York.

Pick: Over 9 (-105)

Los Angeles Dodgers (-148) at St. Louis Cardinals (+126) | O/U 8.5 (-118/-104)

The Cardinals are having a tough start to the season and they sit at the bottom of the division. The pitching has been what’s hurting them, with a 4.54 ERA. Adam Wainwright’s swan song isn’t going well, allowing four earned in his first two starts. His numbers against the Dodgers aren’t good, with a .399 average and .422 slugging.

Despite a shaky start, the Dodgers have been on a run, going 15-3 in their last 18 games. The hot streak began with a three-game sweep of the Cardinals. Julio Urias had one bad stretch, but overall he is pitching well, with his walk rate in the 91st percentile and his chase rate in the 84th.

The Cardinals are slightly below average in chase rate, which will help Urias, but the Dodgers’ offense has been excellent. They also face Wainwright, against whom they have a great track record with a lifetime .313 batting average.

Pick: Dodgers Moneyline (-148)

Cleveland Guardians (+126) at Chicago White Sox (-148) | O/U 8.5 (+104/-128)

I don’t think we should expect the White Sox to be a contender this season, but they’ve controlled this series and are looking for the sweep. They have one of the better pitchers in Dylan Cease to help pull out the brooms, but he hasn’t looked like the 2022 version this year. However, we might see a turnaround, as he comes off his best start of the year after pitching six scoreless against the Astros.

As it’s been all season, the Guardians’ lineup has been cold during this series and when their pitching also isn’t doing so well, it’s tough to win games. Logan Allen has some great stuff and his overall numbers look good with a 3.48 ERA, but the metrics show otherwise. His hard hit percentage is in the 21st percentile and the barrel percentage and expected slugging in the tenth.

The bats have come alive in the South Side this week, and Cease should have another impressive performance to help get the win.

Pick: White Sox -1.5 (+140)

Also check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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