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MLB Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (5/25)

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The weather is getting warmer, and we're fully into the MLB season. Let's look at interesting matchups for tonight.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Baltimore Orioles (+112) at New York Yankees (-132) | O/U 9 (-115/-105)

The Orioles staged a comeback last night, scoring eight runs in the seventh inning to set up this rubber match. Kyle Gibson will try to get the series win for the O's, and he's been having one of his better seasons in a while; his 0.9 WAR is his second-best from the last six seasons. We have seen some regression from him in May, as he's 1-3 with a 4.74 ERA. His expected batting average and slugging against have also dipped below the 30th percentile.

The Yankees are moving up the power rankings and are trying to win their fifth straight series. They'll send Clarke Schmidt to the mound to help get them there. After a horrendous April, he's been pitching much better in May, allowing two or fewer runs in three of his four starts. He has also only given up one home run, as opposed to seven in the previous month. He has strikeout-quality stuff, but still lacks control over his pitches and gives up too many walks.

This has been a high-scoring series, and I don't expect that to change in the finale.

Pick: Over 9 (-115)

St. Louis Cardinals (-168) at Cincinnati Reds (+142) | O/U 10.5 (-106/-114)

Despite the Cardinals losing the first two games of this series, they have been on a great run lately, winning 12 of their last 16. The offense has really come through, going from scoring 4.2 runs in their first 34 games to 7.1 in the last 16. It has helped offset the struggling pitching, which includes Miles Mikolas. He’s been having the worst stretch of his career, with his whiff rate, walk percentage, fastball, and curve velocity all at career-lows.

He has a good history against the Reds, so let’s hope this works in his favor. The Reds’ lineup is at the bottom in hard hit percentage, and their home run percentage has showed their power against the Cardinals' pitching. Luke Weaver's metrics demonstrate what a rough season he's having, but his obvious stat lines show it too; he allowed fewer than four earned in just one of his six starts.

This is another series where the offense has been showing off and although this is a large total, I still like the over.

Pick: Over 10.5 (-106)

Oakland Athletics (+205) at Seattle Mariners (-250) | O/U 7.5 (-114/-106)

There were high hopes for the Mariners after ending their playoff drought last year, but the season hasn't started off well and their record hovers around .500. They have the benefit of facing the Athletics, and the Mariners are on their way to pulling out the brooms. Logan Gilbert had a breakthrough year in 2022 and is continuing his run, with a strikeout and walk rate in the 87th percentile and a chase rate in the 88th.

While Oakland is 17th in walk rate, they are just 27th in strikeout rate. It's tough to find anything positive about the A's. They’re currently on pace for 120 losses, which would be the first time that happened since 1962.

With how well Gilbert is pitching and Seattle's offense playing well in this series, the Mariners should have an easy road to a sweep.

Pick: Mariners -1.5 (-114)

Also make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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