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MLB Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (5/16)

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The weather is getting warmer, and we’re fully into the MLB season. Let’s look at interesting matchups for tonight.

Today’s Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Milwaukee Brewers (+152) at St. Louis Cardinals (-180) | O/U 8 (-122/+100)

The Brewers are coming off an easy sweep of the Royals. They haven’t been playing well as much as the Pirates are struggling, but it’s allowed them to move into first place in the NL Central. Wade Miley is having a good season, but he is coming off the worst start, allowing seven earned against the Dodgers. The forecast doesn’t look good for this start, thanks to his history against the Cardinals, with that roster having a .413 wOBA against Miley.

The Cardinals are having a tough season to start, as they sit at the bottom of the division. The pitching has been what’s hurting them, with a 4.54 ERA. Jordan Montgomery already has a start this season against Milwaukee going seven scoreless innings, and that roster has a .213 lifetime average with a 33.7 strikeout percentage.

I like the pitching matchup for the Cardinals, and it helps get another win in this series.

Pick: Cardinals -1.5 (+118)

Cleveland Guardians (-126) at Chicago White Sox (+108) | O/U 8 (-110/-110)

Although the Guardians are under .500, they’re just 3.5 games out of first in what could be a competitive division. This lineup was never expected to have power, but they aren’t hitting at all, as they’re 28th in on-base percentage and last in barrel percentage. Shane Bieber continues to be one of the top pitchers, and although the metrics are not good, he continues to perform well with six of seven quality starts.

For the White Sox, the competitiveness of the Central will not matter because they won’t be involved. The team has not performed well on either side of the ball, with the pitching being 29th in ERA and the offense 23rd in wRC. Lance Lynn has been awful to the start this season, and in his eight starts, he’s allowed four or more earned runs in six.

I don’t expect much offense in this game, and the Guardians will do enough to earn the win.

Pick: Guardians Moneyline (-126)

Chicago Cubs (+140) at Houston Astros (-166) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105)

The Cubs were a nice story to start the season, and it looked like they would compete in the NL Central, but they have struggled lately by dropping nine of their last 13. One guy who continues to play well is Justin Steele. This year he has a quality start in seven of eight outings and hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs.

The Astros were inconsistent to start the season but have come on strong lately, winning five of their last six. Cristian Javier has some of the best movement to his pitches in the league, with a chase rate in the 92nd percentile, but he occasionally will leave pitches over the plate, leading to him getting rocked.

Houston is near or below average in a few categories against lefties, with Steele’s exit velo and hard-hit percentage in the 90th percentile. I’m taking the Cubs today.

Pick: Cubs Moneyline (+140)

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Tuesday:


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