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MLB Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (5/9)

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The weather is getting warmer, and we're fully into the MLB season. Let's look at interesting matchups for tonight.

Today's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Detroit Tigers (+184) at Cleveland Guardians (-220) | O/U 7.5 (-110/-110)

The AL Central looks like it could be a three-team race. The Tigers could be a part of that if they continue the same pace, being just 2.5 games behind, and having won six of their last seven. Michael Lorenzen is coming off his first quality start by going seven innings and allowing just one earned.

Cleveland is currently playing very shaky baseball, losing six of their last nine. The pitching staff is doing all they can, but the offense has not been able to get it going, and the team that tries to generate runs through small ball is 27th in BABIP. Shane Bieber is pitching great, but he's due for a regression. His current ERA is 2.96, but his expected ERA is 4.86, and most of his metrics are below the 40th percentile.

I like the bats right now for the Tigers, and that regression for Bieber starts in this outing. I’ll take the road dogs.

Pick: Tigers Moneyline (+184)

Tampa Bay Rays (-130) at Baltimore Orioles (+110) | O/U 8.5 (-110/-110)

The Rays have a stranglehold on the AL East with a 6.5-game lead. The power is the headline, as they have 73 home runs, which is 15 more than the next team. The pitching is also incredible, and Zach Eflin is part of that. He has excellent control of his pitches with his walk rate in the 97th percentile, and his chase rate in the 98th.

The Orioles have hit a little snag, but we should expect this team to fall off. The lineup is still an outstanding balance of power and speed, and they are on their come-up. Grayson Rodriguez is coming off a brutal start against a not-very-good Royals offense and gave up six earned and three home runs.

I expect the best offense in baseball to shelve him very quickly.

Pick; Rays Moneyline (-130)

New York Mets (-220) at Cincinnati Reds (+184) | O/U 9.5 (-114/-106)

What is going on with the Mets? The expectations were high as they signed more free agents in the offseason, but they are plummeting by going 3-11 in their last 14. Max Scherzer has not been as dominant as he was last season and in his previous start, gave up six earned runs in a regular season start for the first time since July 2021.

The Reds are still not on their way to being a playoff contender and are coming in, losing five of their last seven. Luke Weaver gets the start, and it’s been a brutal season so far, and he has yet to allow less than four earned runs in each of his three starts.

The Mets are a heavy favorite, but it is hard to trust them at this time, I believe 9.5 is too high for these two lineups, and Mad Max should have a better outing to keep the run total low even if Weaver Struggles.

Pick: Under 9.5 (-106)

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Tuesday:


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