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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (4/28)

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A World Series rematch, a rematch of an American League Wild Card series, and a series opener between the top two teams in the National League East highlight a loaded Friday slate in Major League Baseball. Do any of these highly anticipated games make our best bets column?

Here are our MLB best bets for Friday.

Today's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Cleveland Guardians (-142) vs. Boston Red Sox (+120) | O/U 8.5 (-104/-118)

The Boston Red Sox have put up some crooked numbers at Fenway Park, and they entered Friday tied for fourth with 75 runs scored in home games. Despite playing a large sample of home games (13), Boston hitters have the sixth-lowest strikeout rate at home and also rank in the top ten in BABIP, wOBA, and ISO at Fenway.

The Red Sox now face Shane Bieber, who leads all Guardians pitchers in WAR. However, Bieber’s K/9 rate has rapidly declined each of the previous four seasons, and his 6.5 K/9 rate this year is on pace to be by far the worst of his career. As a result, Bieber’s xERA (5.13) is much higher than his actual ERA (3.23), largely because he ranks in the bottom fifth of the league in hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity. Per Stuff+, Bieber is the fourth-ranked pitcher in his own rotation behind Aaron Civale, Logan Allen, and Tanner Bibee. However, bettors still pay a premium to back the Guardians’ moneyline when he pitches, given the recent Cy Young Award he won. Conversely, Boston’s Nick Pivetta has pitched to an xERA of 5.48, and his barrel and hard-hit percentages rank in the fourth percentile or worse.

The Over is 10-4-2 in the previous 16 meetings in Boston between these teams, and we expect it to cash again.

Pick: Guardians-Red Sox Over 8.5 runs (-104)

Tampa Bay Rays (-152) vs. Chicago White Sox (+128) | O/U 8.5 (-115/-105)

The Tampa Bay Rays were never going to sustain the .864 winning percentage they played to through their first 22 games, so it was not all that surprising to see them lose two of three games to the defending world champion Houston Astros. What was unexpected, and may be a sign of things to come, is that the Rays offense was held scoreless for the final 19 innings of the series.

The Chicago White Sox have lost eight consecutive games and 10 of 11, yet are relatively small home underdogs against the best team in baseball. Especially considering the O/U for the game is a moderate 8.5 runs, that suggests that White Sox righty Lucas Giolito is in for a solid start.

Giolito entered Friday leading all White Sox starters in IP (28) and WHIP (1.18) while tying for second in WAR. He has allowed two or fewer earned runs in three of five starts and five or fewer hits in four appearances. Giolito’s only home start this season was a six-inning masterpiece of no-hit baseball against the Phillies. 

The Rays are 7-0 against the AL Central this year but have lost four of their last six games at the White Sox, which makes the underdogs worth a flier at this price.

Pick: White Sox ML (+128)

New York Yankees (+168) vs. Texas Rangers (-200) | O/U 7.5 (+100/-122)

Per Stuff+, Texas Rangers ace Jacob deGrom has been the best starting pitcher in baseball by a wide margin this year. A whopping three of his pitches (fastball, slider, changeup) all rank as the individual best pitch among any pitcher’s arsenal, and his curveball is ninth-best. Thus, we are willing to ignore his .318/.370/.424 slash line allowed to current New York Yankees hitters over 66 combined at-bats, especially given their offensive struggles of late.

The Yankees followed up a 5-5 homestand where they batted .199 as a team by losing two of three games at the Minnesota Twins. Though New York erupted for 12 runs in its lone win in the series, which came against an ailing Kenta Maeda, who was allowed to be a sacrificial lamb to preserve the bullpen (10 ER over three innings). New York was limited to three total runs in the other two games and has been held to three or fewer runs in 10 of its last 14. Meanwhile, Clarke Schmidt has pitched to a 6.30 ERA and 1.55 WHIP and should get lit up by a Rangers offense that ranks top six in the majors in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and ISO. 

The Yankees have covered the runline in just two of four games as road underdogs this season, while Texas has covered the runline in seven of 13 home games. With the decisive pitching edge and arguably better offense, ignore the names on the front of the jerseys, as the Rangers are deserving favorites.

Pick: Rangers -1.5 runs (+110)

Check out our other best bets for Friday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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