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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (4/7)

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Arguably the biggest series of the weekend is in Atlanta as two of the shortest favorites for the National League pennant, the Braves and Padres, meet for the second of four games this weekend. In addition, the intensity ratchets up early in the NL Central as the top two favorites, the Cardinals and Brewers, duel for the first of 13 games this season. Which one of these games makes our best bets column?

Here are our MLB best bets for Friday.

YTD: 11-9-1 (+4.83 units)

Today's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Chicago White Sox (-134) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+114) | O/U 8.5 (-105/-115)

Pittsburgh’s 4-2 start is its best through six games since 2018, but it will likely need a big day offensively to win its fifth. Chicago has had a top-five wRC+ against left-handed pitching for the previous three seasons. The White Sox face a southpaw for the second consecutive day after knocking Alex Wood around for two runs over three short innings yesterday.

Rich Hill allowed a 36.4% hard-hit percentage in his first start against the Reds, and two of his three hits allowed left the yard. That hard-hit percentage would rank as the worst in any season in Hill’s career, but his trajectory was already headed downward after finishing his first season last year with an ERA north of 4.00 (4.27).

Chicago is 12-2 in its last 14 interleague road games and has won five of its last six road games against left-handed starters. In addition, its dominance of the NL Central last year (13-3 in its last 16) is also why we are backing the White Sox at a relatively short price.

Pick: White Sox ML (-134)

Texas Rangers (+106) vs. Chicago Cubs (-124) | O/U 7 (-105/-115)

Cubs starter Marcus Stroman has allowed hard-hit percentages in the 40s each of the previous two seasons and three of the last four. However, if he continues to strike out 34.8% of batters as he did in his first start, those hard-hit numbers are bound to regress. As it is, Stroman has not allowed a home run in any of his previous 20.2 innings. In addition, he has not allowed an extra-base hit in any of the last 10.1 or an earned run in 13.1 consecutive innings. Those are big reasons the Cubs won each of his final three home starts at the end of last season.

Stroman’s counterpart, Nathan Eovaldi, allowed a 50% hard-hit percentage in his first start and walked 9.1% of batters.

The Cubs have won four of their last five home games against the Rangers, and we expect the colder temperatures to play to their advantage again.

Pick: Cubs ML (-124)

St. Louis Cardinals (+136) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-162) | O/U 8 (-115/-105)

Milwaukee and St. Louis are each coming off a series against National League contenders. We expect the Brewers to continue the momentum of a series where they outscored the Mets by 20 runs instead of backing a Cardinals team that was outscored by ten runs in a three-game home sweep against the Braves.

The pitching matchup also favors the Brewers, as righty Brandon Woodruff has allowed a .191/.249/.339 slash line in 136 at-bats against opposing Cardinals. Meanwhile, current Brewers have slashed .290/.380/.686 against Cardinals righty Jack Flaherty. Despite not allowing a hit in five innings in his first start, Flaherty struggled with command (seven walks) and now faces a Brewers lineup that ranks second in walks per nine innings (12.9%) this season.

Until St. Louis proves it can beat winning teams with more regularity (1-6 SU in its last seven against teams over .500), we will continue to oppose it.

Pick: Brewers ML (-162)

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Friday:

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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