MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (5/12)
Of the twelve new series beginning today around Major League Baseball, just two are between division rivals. The most high-profile of those is a National League West showdown between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers. Los Angeles took two out of three games in San Diego earlier this season, and 4.0 games separate the two teams heading into this weekend. Find our best pick for that game and two others around the league in our best bets column.
Here are our MLB best bets for Friday.
Today’s Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cincinnati Reds (+120) vs. Miami Marlins (-142)| O/U 7.5 (-115/-105)
This is the first of two picks today involving a game where a pitcher is making their season debut. However, in this case, one pitcher is making a historic MLB debut, as Miami Marlins starting pitcher Eury Perez becomes the first big-leaguer with a birth year of 2003.
The 23-year-old Perez is the eighth-ranked prospect in baseball and earned a big promotion right out of Double-A, where he pitched to a 2.32 ERA and a 4.67 K:BB ratio in 31 innings this year. He should find instant success against a Cincinnati Reds lineup that has scored the third-fewest runs in the National League and ranks 28th or worse in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+.
Opposing Perez is righty Graham Ashcraft, who leads the Reds starters in WHIP and WAR. However, Ashcraft pitches more to contact (7.2 K/9 rate) than teammates Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, which opens a path to offensive success for a Marlins team that ranks in the top ten in the majors in BABIP.
The Reds have won 15 of the previous 21 meetings between these teams. Still, the unfamiliarity with Perez facing the Reds lineup for the first time should give the Marlins the advantage, especially early in the game. Betting Miami over the first five innings also returns $12 in better value.
Pick: Marlins First Five Innings ML (-130)
St. Louis Cardinals (-112) vs. Boston Red Sox (-104) | O/U 10.5 (-108/-112)
This is a rare game in the second week of May between two veteran pitchers who have made one start between them. James Paxton makes his Boston Red Sox debut (and first start since 2021) as he spent all last season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Meanwhile, Adam Wainwright’s first start of the season against the Detroit Tigers was a bit of a “good news, bad news†scenario. Wainwright cruised through the first four innings, allowing zero earned runs and just two singles. However, he eventually was tagged for eight hits and four earned runs in five innings (he appeared in the sixth but did not retire either of the two batters faced). With so much unknown surrounding Paxton and how he will fare against the Cardinals, we focus our wager on Wainwright, given that there is more information to go off of with him.
Wainwright faces a Boston Red Sox lineup that leads the majors in batting average (.297), wOBA (.369), and OPS (.851) in home games and is fourth in wRC+. Wainwright has allowed at least one hit per inning in four of the last six seasons. And given that the St. Louis Cardinals bullpen ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA and has pitched the fifth-most innings of any NL team, Wainwright may be left to eat more innings than usual, especially with two more games to play in a ballpark that typically produces high-scoring games.
Pick: Red Sox Team Total Over 5 (+100)
San Diego Padres (+120) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-142) | O/U 9 (-115/-105)
Dustin May’s respectable 3.44 ERA and impressive 1.013 WHIP against the San Diego Padres suggest he should have fared better than a 2-4 record in 11 career appearances and eight starts. May has already held the Padres scoreless on three hits over six innings in a win earlier this season and has now held current Padres hitters to a .222/.341/.447 slash line, as he has overcome some control issues (12 walks) in 72 combined at-bats. And while players like Manny Machado have a 1.011 OPS against May, the righty has also dominated other big bats like Fernando Tatis and Trent Grishman, who are a combined 3-for-25 with ten strikeouts against him.
The Dodgers face southpaw Blake Snell, whose 1.571 WHIP and 8.7 H/9 are on pace to be his worst since his rookie year. Command issues have also plagued Snell, as his 5.4 BB/9 rate is on pace to be a career-worst and has him ranked in the 13th percentile in walk rate.
Many trends suggest the Los Angeles Dodgers are a good bet to beat the San Diego Padres. Los Angeles has won 38 of its last 52 home meetings with San Diego, and while the Dodgers are 0-4 in Dustin May’s previous four home starts with an O/U between 7.0 and 8.5, they are 4-0 in his last four at home when the O/U is 9.0 or greater (the total is 9.0 for this series opener).
Pick: Dodgers ML (-142)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.