MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (6/2)
Another profitable 2-1 day Wednesday for our best bets column brings us to 5-1 for the week as we look to finish on a high note.
Here are our MLB best bets for Friday.
Today's Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Seattle Mariners (-126) vs. Texas Rangers (+108)| O/U 8.5 (-102/-120)
When Texas Rangers righty Jon Gray last faced the Seattle Mariners, he outdueled Logan Gilbert, allowing just four hits over seven solid innings and matched his season-high with eight strikeouts. Given that the Rangers offense is hitting at a historic pace, we are buying the first-place Rangers as home underdogs in this series opener.
Seattle is favored mainly because Luis Castillo enters with a streak of 12 1/3 innings without allowing an earned run. However, Gray is no slouch either, as he has not lost a decision since his first start of the season and has pitched to a 2.68 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over his last seven starts. In addition, he has added more swing-and-miss stuff to his arsenal, as his strikeout total has increased in each of his previous three starts.
The Rangers have won each of Gray’s last five starts with a +24 run differential in that span, and he is backed by an offense that is on pace to become the eighth team since 1900 (and first since the 1999 Cleveland Indians) to crack the 1,000-run plateau.
Texas took two out of three games at Seattle despite being without Corey Seager during that series. Seager and his team-leading .943 OPS are back in the lineup to protect the red-hot Marcus Semien, who is amid a 20-game hitting streak. All of this has us looking past Seattle’s 14-5 record against Texas last year, the Mariners’ most wins against any opponent.
Pick: Rangers ML (+108)
Baltimore Orioles (+132) vs. San Francisco Giants (-156) | O/U 8 (-102/-120)
Baltimore Orioles righty Dean Kremer finished April with an uninspiring 6.67 ERA but improved mightily in May, ending the month with a 2.45 ERA and three wins in five May starts. That is a tremendous accomplishment considering all five starts came against top-11 offenses in the league, including the major’s two top-scoring teams in the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays.
While the San Francisco Giants are just behind Kremer’s recent competition with the 15th-most runs scored, facing them should be a walk in the park in comparison, given that Joc Pederson is on the IL and Michael Conforto remains day-to-day with a heel injury. Those two players rank third and fourth in OPS among Giants hitters with 80+ at-bats and would significantly lower the ceiling of a team that ranks in the bottom five of the league in strikeout rate and the bottom half of the league in wRC+ in home games this year.
Opposing Kremer is Giants ace Logan Webb, who has pitched to a microscopic 1.68 ERA over his last seven starts. Webb has performed well at home all season, pitching to a 1.65 ERA and an elite 2.80 GO/AO ratio in five home starts.
The Under has cashed in each of Webb’s last four starts against teams with a winning record, and we expect another pitcher’s duel with two starters in peak form.
Pick: Under 8 (-120)
Chicago Cubs (+142) vs. San Diego Padres (-168) | O/U 8.5 (-120/-102)
The Chicago Cubs have lost all eight of Jameson Taillon’s starts this season, which is a historic feat as ESPN Stats & Info highlighted.
As a result, Taillon is the only Cubs starting pitcher with a negative WAR. He has made just one start where he allowed fewer than five runs while also completing five innings, and his 69 pitches per start puts stress on a bullpen with the worst ERA (4.60) among all National League teams.
We expect the San Diego Padres to jump on the Cubs early and to be backed by another strong outing by Michael Wacha, who leads the team’s starters in WHIP, HR/9, WAR, IP, and pitches per start. We are getting great value on a pitcher who has won three of his last four starts against a team that is just 4-9 as road underdogs this season.
Padres backers may also be treated to encouraging news if Manny Machado is activated from the IL today. San Diego has gone just 6-8 and entered Thursday with a 24th-ranked OPS in Machado’s absence. However, Chicago has lost five consecutive games to teams with a losing record and five of its last seven to San Diego. Furthermore, the fact that the Under has cashed in each of Wacha’s previous six starts suggests the Padres are worthy favorites in this opener.
Pick: Padres ML (-168)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.