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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (6/23)

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The Cincinnati Reds host the Atlanta Braves riding an 11-game winning streak (the Braves have won eight straight themselves) entering the opener of a three-game series. Per the Elias Sports Bureau, that winning streak is the fifth-longest in franchise history and is three behind their longest of all-time. So how do we get involved with this suddenly high-profile game tonight?

Take a look at our Reds-Braves best bet and two others for tonight’s 14-game MLB slate.

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Today's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Atlanta Braves (-164) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+138)| O/U 11 (-105/-115)

This game has plenty of unknowns, especially since Braves righty AJ Smith-Shawver is appearing in just his fourth Major League game. On the other side, the Reds have not been tested by winning teams much lately, as eight of the 11 wins in their winning streak have come against bottom-five teams. However, we know that the Braves can mash and that Reds starter Luke Weaver is arguably their most vulnerable starting pitcher, which has us backing Atlanta’s team total.

Weaver pitched twice during the team’s 11-game winning streak, with the Reds prevailing in extra innings in both, while Weaver recorded four strikeouts in 9 2/3 combined innings. Weaver ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in strikeout rate and whiff percentage, and this year’s 19.5% strikeout percentage is on pace to be the lowest of his career.

Weaver faces an Atlanta Braves team that is 6-0 against the NL Central and is 14 games over .500 against right-handed starting pitchers (tied for the second-best in MLB). Atlanta ranks top-nine in strikeout rate, which improves to top-five against right-handed pitchers on the road. And given that the Braves rank best in HR/FB ratio against righties on the road, fourth in hard-hit contact, and fifth in wRC+, it should be a rough outing for Weaver. Look for Weaver to struggle with the top of Atlanta’s lineup, as Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies are a combined 9-for-26 against him, with seven hits going for extra bases.

Pick: Braves team total Over 6 (-113)

New York Mets (-102) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-116) | O/U 9.5 (-105/-115)

The Philadelphia Phillies are among the most profitable Under teams this year, cashing the Under in 58.2% of their games. And despite trotting out a starting pitcher, Taijuan Walker, that has allowed just one earned run over his last 20 innings spanning three starts, we are backing the Over, given the opposing lineup’s familiarity with his arsenal after he spent the previous two seasons in Queens.

The Mets rank ninth or worse among all National League teams in runs, batting average, and on-base percentage. However, they got hot in Houston, averaging seven runs per game despite losing two of three to the Astros. New York has averaged better than six runs per game over the previous six games, and the Over is 7-4 after it has a day off. 

While Walker has allowed two or fewer hits in four of his previous six starts, he has also issued at least three walks three times in that span, which will catch up to him eventually. That plays right into the Mets’ hands, as they own the second-best BB:K ratio against right-handed pitching in road games this season. On the other side, Kodai Senga’s road ERA is 2.36 runs higher than at Citi Field, along with a concerning 1.63 WHIP away from home. The Under has cashed in Senga’s four starts against NL East opponents, but this is his second time facing the Phillies lineup, who should be more familiar with his stuff this time.

Pick: Over 9.5 (-105)

Boston Red Sox (-118) vs. Chicago White Sox (+100) | O/U 8.5 (-102/-120)

The Boston Red Sox are a profitable 10-7 in “coin-flip” games, where their odds have been anywhere from +100 to -120, while the Chicago White Sox are 4-7 in that same category. Boston has either won or split three of its last four series, despite playing three of those series against potential playoff teams, the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins, in that span.

Now the Red Sox turn to Brayan Bello, who has allowed three or fewer earned runs in nine consecutive starts. Bello has a respectable 22.5% strikeout rate and .220 BAA in that span and is likely to see an uptick in strikeouts despite a 10.8% SwStr rate. The White Sox strike out at the sixth-highest rate among all American League teams, and Lucas Giolito’s GB/FB rate is on pace to be the worst of his career. In addition, his 41.7% hard-hit rate has not been this poor since his rookie year (2016).

The Red Sox have averaged six runs per game the last two times they faced Giolito, so we expect them to win for the fifth straight Friday.

Pick: Red Sox ML (-118)

Check out our other best bets for Friday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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