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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (6/30)

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Despite backing the Oakland Athletics, who had a perfect game thrown against them on Wednesday, we are not letting that loss dampen a profitable 2-1 day, including a plus-money cash at +100 odds. What games caught our eye heading into the weekend?

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Today's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

San Diego Padres (-144) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+122)| O/U 11 (-118/-104)

San Diego Padres righty Seth Lugo has allowed 3+ runs in three of his last six starts, and he has missed fewer bats in road starts, with a 7.71 K/9 rate in five starts on the road compared to an 8.9 K/9 rate in five home starts. 

Lugo heads to the Great American Ball Park, ranked second in Ballpark Pal’s park factors in home runs and runs scored. He faces a Cincinnati Reds lineup that entered yesterday’s day off ranked eighth in wRC+ and sixth in OPS against right-handed pitching in June.

Opposing Lugo is Reds righty Graham Ashcraft, who has the worst ERA (7.17), WHIP (1.67), ad WAR (-0.6) of any of Cincinnati’s starting pitchers. Though Ashcraft’s 5.84 xERA suggests positive regression is coming, he still ranks in the eighth percentile in xERA/xwOBA and the third percentile in xBA.

The Over has cashed in five of the eight games the Reds have played after a day off, which has us liking their chances of scoring runs off Lugo and fading the fact that the Padres have seen the Over cash in just 39% of their games this season.  

Pick: Over 11 (-118)

Minnesota Twins (-108) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-108) | O/U 9 (+100/-122)

The Minnesota Twins looked hapless in their three-game road sweep at the Atlanta Braves, losing the three games by a combined 13-3 and going 0-for-23 with runners in scoring position. That prompted manager Rocco Baldelli to hold a closed-door meeting after the last loss, as they relinquished first place in the AL Central.

The Twins are now 17-22 against teams over .500 and have won just two road series against teams with a winning record all season. They now face a Baltimore Orioles team that has won three of its last four home series and have a righty on the mound in Dean Kremer, who has lost just once in eight home starts. He should find success against a Twins lineup that is batting .232 with a .710 and has been held to three or fewer runs 39 times this season (47.6% of their games). Meanwhile, Minnesota’s Pablo Lopez has won just once in his previous ten starts, and his 38% hard-hit allowed rate is on pace to be the worst of his career. Lopez’s barrel percentages over the last three years are the highest of his career, and his elite 30.1% strikeout rate is offset by the fact that the Orioles rank in the top nine in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Per Inside Edge, the Orioles are an MLB-best 69-38 (.639) against the run line (20.1% ROI) after a loss since last season, which makes us confident they will win tonight.

Pick: Orioles ML (-108)

Tampa Bay Rays (-144) vs. Seattle Mariners (+122) | O/U 7.5 (+100/-122)

The Seattle Mariners mustered just five hits in seven scoreless innings against Washington Nationals southpaw Patrick Corbin in their last game, despite Corbin coming into that start ranking in the bottom 10% of the league in strikeout rate, average exit velocity, xERA, and xwOBA. The Mariners have struggled against southpaws all season, ranking 20th in wRC+, 24th in OPS, and 28th in strikeout rate. That does not bode well for their chances of success against Cy Young Award candidate Shane McClanahan, who ranks 12th in the AL in K/9 rate (9.68).

McClanahan has seven wins in his previous 11 starts and enters this outing as the only pitcher in baseball with 11 victories. Meanwhile, Seattle has made its living off feasting on poor teams, as they are 13-26 against teams over .500, and has won one of its last seven against teams with a winning percentage over .600. In addition, the Under has cashed in five of Seattle’s last six games following an off day, so we do not expect much offensive success against one of MLB’s best pitchers. There is some concern that McClanahan left his last start early with back tightness, but he has had over a week to rest and is also backed by a top-10 bullpen in ERA if he had to leave early again.

Pick: Mariners team total Under 3 (+102)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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