MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (7/14)

All 30 Major League Baseball teams are rested and rejuvenated after getting four days off for the All-Star Break festivities, and it is only a matter of weeks until the trade deadline gives us a much clearer picture of who are pretenders and contenders for the second half of the season.

Today's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

San Diego Padres (-116) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-102) | O/U 9.5 (-102/-120)

The San Diego Padres are road favorites in this matchup despite going just 3-4 in Yu Darvish’s seven road starts, with two of those wins coming against the lowly Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals.

Darvish has seen his K/9 rate drop each of the last four full seasons, and this year’s 9.4 K/9 rate parallels the previous year’s career-worst number of 9.1. Darvish looked rusty in his first start back against the New York Mets after having his turn in the rotation skipped twice while he dealt with a virus. Darvish labored through five innings and allowed three walks (his second-most in 11 starts), and should again be rusty after having six days off since his last start. When Darvish has 6+ days of rest, he has a 10.3 K/9 rate over 340 1/3 innings compared to 10.8 and 10.9 K/9 with four or five days’ rest.

Darvish’s O/U for earned runs is 3.5, and he has -225 odds not to record a win at DraftKings, which suggests a rough outing could be in order. The Philadelphia Phillies rank in the top half of the league in the lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers in home games, so they figure to make Darvish work in this contest. And we have no problem backing youngster Cristopher Sanchez, who has thrown quality starts in each of his last two outings and is walking a career-low 4% of batters.

Pick: Phillies ML (-102)


Los Angeles Dodgers (-126vs. New York Mets (+108) | O/U 8.5 (-112/-108)

The New York Mets’ records by splits against right-handed and left-handed pitchers say it all about their struggles against southpaws. The Mets are ten games under .500 (10-20) against left-handed pitchers compared to four games over .500 against righties (32-28). They rank 27th in BABIP and 20th in OPS and wOBA against left-handed pitching, which has us encouraged about Julio Urias’s chances for success, given that he has three quality starts in his last six outings.

We also expect more brilliance at Citi Field from Justin Verlander, as he has a 2.19 ERA (seventh-best in the majors) and 1.08 GO/AO ratio at home versus a 5.18 ERA and 0.46 GO/AO ratio on the road. Bettors who have wagered on the Over in every Mets’ game this season would be down -16.80 units with a -19% ROI, and we expect another low-scoring battle between two pitchers who have been fixtures in the Cy Young voting in recent years.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-108)


Milwaukee Brewers (-124vs. Cincinnati Reds (+106) | O/U 10 (-110/-110)

The Milwaukee Brewers took two out of three games from the Cincinnati Reds in their last series before the All-Star Break, and now the NL Central rivals meet again with just one game separating them in the standings. Milwaukee ended Cincinnati’s franchise record of 22 straight games with a home run in the series finale (a 1-0 shutout win) and have the right pitcher on the mound to ensure they go homerless again.

After Corbin Burnes held the Cincinnati Reds hitless through four innings in his last start, Reds manager David Bell said, “The first three innings was probably the best stuff we’ve seen all year.” Stuff+ agrees as Burnes is ranked fourth among all qualified pitchers, with his changeup being the best in the sport. That is why we are buying Burnes as a big buy-low candidate for the second half, considering he has pitched to a 4.33 ERA over his last seven starts. But optimists say that his ERA is 3.30 in that span if you remove one blowup performance against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Furthermore, Burnes’ control issues (2+ walks in four straight starts) figure to see positive regression, as his walk rates the last two seasons were as much as 41% lower than this year’s 8.8% walk rate.

The Brewers are 12-8 in their last 20 road games and have covered the run line in eight of their last 12 overall. That makes them worthy road favorites in our minds in this series opener.

Pick: Brewers ML (-124)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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