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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (7/21)

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We are looking to build off of a 3-0 sweep of Wednesday’s MLB best bets, with our three plays today focused on a first five innings total, a runline, and one underdog moneyline wager. 

Today’s Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Baltimore Orioles (+138) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-164) | O/U 8 (-104/-118)

The Tampa Bay Rays have likely built up enough equity from a torrid start to the season that their playoff hopes are not seriously jeopardized. But it has to be concerning that a team that was previously running away with the AL East is just 3-12 since the calendar turned to July, and a big reason for those shortcomings is an offense that has scored an MLB-low 50 runs in those 15 games (min 13 games). The Rays also are the American League’s worst team in terms of wRC+ and wOBA in that span, and now face a starting pitcher in Kyle Bradish, who has pitched to a 1.87 ERA over his previous seven starts and has not allowed an earned run in his last 15 â…” innings.

Bradish ranks in the top 15 in PLV among all starting pitchers, and Stuff+ has him ranked fourth among all pitchers with 80+ innings pitched. Bradish is tough on right-handed batters (.216 OBA and 0.99 WHIP) because of a slider that ranks in the 100th percentile, per PLV. Bradish has gone under his projected earned runs total in six consecutive starts. Meanwhile, Rays starter Zach Eflin is just 2-4 in his last seven, and his hard-hit percentage allowed (37.4%) is on pace to be the second-worst of his career while he ranks in the 28th percentile in barrels.

The Orioles have been the most profitable moneyline team to tail all season ($100 bettors would be up $1885 wagering on every Orioles game), and we are backing them again despite Tampa Bay’s home dominance (35-16 is MLB’s best home record).

Pick: Orioles ML (+138)

Colorado Rockies (+198) vs. Miami Marlins (-240) | O/U 8.5 (-110/-110)

The Miami Marlins have not won a game since the All-Star Break (0-6) but have precisely the right man on the mound to help end their losing ways. Miami has won eight of Braxton Garrett’s last nine starts, with the only loss in that span coming against the red-hot Baltimore Orioles, over whom it had a 4-0 early lead.

Garrett has a .217 OBA or lower on two of his three primary pitches, which should play well against a Colorado Rockies team that ranks last in the majors in wRC+. The Rockies are also last among NL teams in BB/K ratio and are the only NL team 19+ games under .500 on the road.
Per Inside Edge, Colorado is 39-28 (9.1% ROI) against the run line after a home loss since last season, which ranks second-best in MLB.

However, we expect a desperate Marlins team to show up tonight and strengthen its NL wild card chances while facing an inferior opponent.

Pick: Marlins -1.5 (-118)

Kansas City Royals (+180) vs. New York Yankees (-215) | O/U 8.5 (-120/-102)

If you want a statistic on why we are backing the Under in a game involving the Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees, look no further than what Katie Sharp dug up earlier this week.

While Kansas City has been one of the worst offensive teams all season, New York has been especially abysmal in July. The Yankees rank 28th in runs per game (3.8), 24th in batting average (.226), 22nd in on-base percentage (.308), and 25th in slugging (.374). Things might only get worse playing at home, as losers of nine of their last 11 games, the disgruntled Yankees fans will be eager to voice their displeasure with every failure in a big spot.

Conversely, Clarke Schmidt has posted a 33.3% K-BB% in July, largely because of a heavier reliance on sweepers and cutters and less on sinkers and knuckle curves, as Ryan Garcia pointed out. The Under has cashed in 59.4% of New York’s non-divisional games (38-26-3) and is 29-16-1 following a Yankees loss. Given that New York’s once dominant bullpen ranks bottom-eight in ERA (5.28) and Kansas City’s is third-worst this month (6.50), we are limiting this wager to the first five innings.

Pick: First Five Innings Under 4.5 (+112)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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