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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (7/28)

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With just five days remaining until the Major League Baseball trade deadline, these weekend series will be pivotal for many teams around the league to decide whether to be buyers or sellers. With today’s trio of picks, we back one of each of the three main categories of wagers: moneyline, runline, and total.

Today's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

New York Yankees (-126) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+108) | O/U 8.5 (-112/-108)

The New York Yankees’ playoff chances are in dire straits as they enter a brutal ten-game stretch against the Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays, and Houston Astros. However, the Yankees will likely remain favorites against the teams they are looking up at in the standings whenever ace Gerrit Cole takes the mound.

New York is 15-6 in Gerrit Cole’s 21 starts this season, andis 39-42 against everyone else. The Yankees are likely not bigger favorites in this game, as one of those wins in a Cole start was a 6-5 extra-inning victory against the Orioles, in which the team overcame his five earned runs (tied for a season-high).

However, as Katie Sharp explained, the Yankees should be in good shape to earn another victory if they can scratch across three runs.

We are confident the Bronx Bombers can succeed offensively against Orioles righty Grayson Rodriguez, whose 9.09 ERA since May 1 is the worst of any starting pitcher (min. 30 IP). While Rodriguez’s 4.54 xFIP vs. actual 7.11 FIP suggests positive regression is looming, he continues to get himself in trouble with allowing home runs at an alarming rate (3.13 HR/9). That issue will only be magnified if today is the day Yankees slugger Aaron Judge makes his anticipated return to the lineup off a lengthy IL stint.

Yankees moneyline backers would be up 2.95 units with a 33% ROI in their last five games, and we expect their ace to lead them to victory over one of MLB’s best teams.

Pick: Yankees ML (-126)

Minnesota Twins (-172) vs. Kansas City Royals (+144) | O/U 9.5 (-110/-110)

While some may be concerned about Sonny Gray’s 14 consecutive starts without a victory and not earning a win since April, half of his previous ten starts have been quality starts. And though he has pitched to a 4.78 ERA over his last five appearances, three came against the best teams in each league (Atlanta and Baltimore). Gray largely earned an All-Star appearance on a back of a tremendous first month and his continued success against weaker AL Central opponents, as he has pitched to a much tidier 2.66 ERA in seven starts against divisional rivals this year.

Gray’s 2.90 FIP is on pace to be his best since his rookie year in 2013, and he owns a league-best 0.2 HR/9 rate. He has also held current Kansas City Royals hitters to a .187/.229/.266 slash line in 91 combined at-bats (with 25.2% of outs coming via strikeouts).

Meanwhile, his counterpart, Brady Singer, has allowed a .324/.439/.607 slash line over 68 at-bats to current Minnesota Twins hitters. Singer’s 4.20 FIP is on pace to be the worst of his career, as are his 10.3 H/9 and 7.5 K/9 rates. Minnesota is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games (+4.60 units, 25% ROI), but we are opting for more value with the runline, as it is 10-11 against the runline in 21 games as road favorites, which is much better than its 20-28 runline record as home favorites.

Pick: Twins -1.5 (-104)

Boston Red Sox (+130) vs. San Francisco Giants (-154) | O/U 8 (-104/-118)

Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, and Zac Gallen are the only three qualified starting pitchers with an ERA of 2.02 or better in home starts. Webb’s .230 OBA, 1.03 WHIP, 6.09 K/BB rate, and 2.33 GO/AO ratio are all second-best of the three. In addition, his nine quality starts are tied for the most in MLB, and he ranks sixth among all NL pitchers in WAR.

We like Webb’s chances of shutting down a Boston Red Sox lineup that ranks 17th in wRC+ and OPS and 22nd in BABIP (.285) against right-handed pitchers on the road this season. Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants have been awful at the plate of late, averaging fewer than four runs per game over the last 14 days while ranking 29th in wRC+ and BABIP and dead-last in OPS and wOBA in that span.

The Under is 34-24 (+8.85 units, 14% ROI) in Boston’s last 58 games and is an even more profitable 50-39 (+11.10 units, 11% ROI) in San Francisco’s last 89. Look for another pitcher’s duel in the Bay Area tonight.

Pick: Under 8 (-118)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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