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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (7/7)

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After alternating for each of the Cleveland Guardians’ last 23 games, the Under cashed for two nights in a row after yesterday’s 6-1 victory, putting to rest one of the quirkiest trends in Major League Baseball this season. There is nothing quirky about the Philadelphia Phillies’ 12-game road winning streak after going 13-23 on the road through their first 36. They swept the AL-best Tampa Bay Rays on the road in their last series and head into a road matchup with a division rival they are looking up at in the standings, the Miami Marlins.

Today's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Philadelphia Phillies (-124) vs. Miami Marlins (-106)| O/U 7.5 (+100/-122)

This is an underrated NL East battle, as the Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins entered Thursday with the third and fourth-best winning percentages of all National League teams since June 2. However, we have more confidence in Philadelphia’s starting pitcher, and in the team as a whole, given its recent road success.

Some will argue that the Phillies’ solid stretch coincided with putting Kyle Schwarber back in the leadoff spot, as he was slugging .513 with a .846 OPS in that span entering yesterday. However, more of the team’s success is likely due to getting excellent starting pitching, with 15 wins from its starters since June 3 (second only to Atlanta’s 16) and an MLB-best 2.67 ERA and 3.24 FIP in that span.

Among all Phillies starters with 5+ appearances in that stretch, Zack Wheeler has the best FIP (2.75) and BB/9 rate (1.82) and is one of two pitchers with a double-digit K/9 rate (10.01). He is 4-0 in his previous seven starts and has not lost a decision since May 22. Meanwhile, Sandy Alcantara has allowed a .304/.349/.442 slash line in 194 combined at-bats against current Phillies hitters. Three of Philadelphia’s best (Alec Bohm, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper) all have OPSs of .918 or better against Alcantara and are a combined 27-for-77 (.351) in their careers. We expect them to be the table-setters in another road victory.

Pick: Phillies ML (-124)

Cincinnati Reds (+110) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-130) | O/U 8 (+100/-122)

Cincinnati Reds No. 5 prospect Andrew Abbott made history as the first pitcher since 1893 to throw five scoreless innings in his first three games. He continued to make history as the first pitcher since 1900 with 40+ strikeouts and five or fewer earned runs allowed in his first six career games, per ESPN Stats & Info. 

His MLB debut was a home start against the Milwaukee Brewers, in which he held them to one hit over six innings while striking out six. Since then, he has averaged ten strikeouts per start over his last six starts and faces a Brewers lineup with the highest strikeout rate (27.6%) and second-worst wRC+ (81) against left-handed pitching this year. Additionally, we expect a Reds lineup that ranks fourth in wRC+ and second in OPS since June 10 (the day they started their 12-game winning streak) to provide enough run support against Corbin Burnes. 

Cincinnati has won six of its last seven series openers and 18 of its last 21 road games against a right-handed starter. Thus, we are ignoring that it is just 8-21 over the previous 29 meetings with Milwaukee, as this year’s team is rejuvenated and full of young talent.

Pick: Reds ML (+110)

New York Mets (+110) vs. San Diego Padres (-130) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105)

Justin Verlander has drastic home/road splits this season, with his road performances leaving something to be desired. In six starts at Citi Field this year, he has pitched to a 2.19 ERA (seventh-best home ERA in NL, min. five starts) and allowed a .212 OBA and .603 opponents’ OPS. However, in five road starts, he has pitched to a 5.67 ERA and allowed a .287 OBA and .803 OPS. 

Verlander is opposed by Yu Darvish, who we expect to be rusty after missing two turns through the rotation with a viral illness that caused him to lose ten pounds. Darvish had his share of struggles before that, pitching to a 6.75 ERA in his previous seven starts, and now faces a New York Mets lineup that has averaged 5.3 runs per game over its last eight road games. 

The Over has cashed in each of San Diego’s last five games following an off day and is 4-2 in New York’s last six road games against right-handed starting pitchers. In addition, New York has had much better success against righties this season, going 31-27 against right-handed starting pitchers and 10-19 against southpaws. This total seems too low today, and we would also be comfortable playing it to 8.5.

Pick: Over 7.5 (-115)

Check out our other best bets for Friday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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