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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (9/15)

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The Cleveland Guardians blew two different three-run leads in their series finale against the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday, the latest of which was in the eighth inning, and that ultimately cost us a winning day on our MLB Best Bets. However, we are back to get the momentum going heading into the weekend and the final two weeks of the regular season.

      Friday's Best MLB Bets

      (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

      Tampa Bay Rays (-124) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+106) | O/U 8.5 (-105/-115) 

      The Tampa Bay Rays had to deal with Baltimore Orioles ace Kyle Bradish in the series opener, but today's starting pitcher, Jack Flaherty, has pitched nothing like an ace. Flaherty has allowed four earned runs in each of his last two starts while not lasting five innings and has pitched to a 7.16 ERA in six starts with the team. 

      The Orioles are 3-3 in Flaherty's starts but have averaged nine runs per game in those wins. We do not expect the lineup to give him the same run support against Rays righty Zach Eflin, who has pitched to a 2.86 ERA over his last five starts despite three outings coming against teams in the top half of the league in scoring. In those starts, Eflin has pitched to a 3.01 FIP, and cut down his home run rate considerably, as he has allowed a 10/3% HR/FB rate in that span compared to a rate above 12% for the season.

      Eflin ranks in the 89th percentile or better in xERA and chase percentage, is in the top fifth of all pitchers in ground-ball rate, and his 1.3 BB/9 rate is on pace to be the best of his career. The Rays have won 65.6% of their games as favorites (80-42) and 62.7% of their games as road favorites (32-19), and we expect them to pull even in the AL East race with a big road victory today. 

      Pick: Rays Moneyline (-124)

      Philadelphia Phillies (-132) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (+112) | O/U 8 (-128/+104)

      In one of the fishiest lines of the day, the Philadelphia Phillies are "just" -132 moneyline road favorites against the St. Louis Cardinals. Perhaps the Phillies are being discounted because they have lost four of five games (though they went an excusable 1-3 against the Atlanta Braves), but we believe the line has more to do with oddsmakers expecting continued regression from Phillies righty Aaron Nola. Even though Nola held the Cardinals to one hit over seven innings two starts ago, he has been tagged for 11 earned runs on 15 hits in his previous nine innings since that start against St. Louis.

      Nola has a recipe for success to beat the Cardinals, as sluggers Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are a combined 6-for-41 (.146) against Nola, and neither has an OPS higher than .433. Thus, this is a contrarian play, as Nola has held current Cardinals hitters to a combined .184/.228/.286 slash line in 87 combined at-bats, but St. Louis has been hot in games early of late, cashing the team total Over in the first five innings in 11 of its last 14 games (+8.04 units, 51% ROI). Meanwhile, we do not trust Cardinals southpaw Zack Thompson, despite a 2.37 ERA in 11 home appearances, as the Phillies rank third in the National League in wRC+ in road games since the start of August.

      Pick: Over 8 (-128)

      Los Angeles Dodgers (-108) vs. Seattle Mariners (-108) | O/U 7.5 (-118/-104)

      George Kirby is one of three members of the Seattle Mariners rotation that has 17-plus quality starts this season, while no other team in MLB has three pitchers with at least 15. With this game being in Seattle, Kirby should be up to the challenge of facing a potent Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, given that his 2.87 ERA in 12 home starts ranks fourth among all AL starters, and his 0.89 WHIP in that split leads the majors.

      The Dodgers have been cautious with MVP candidate Mookie Betts after he fouled a ball off his foot a week ago, and the slugger is 3-for-13 with two strikeouts since the injury. Los Angeles has averaged eight runs per game over its last seven games but was held to just 15 runs over four games the previous time it played a team at least 16 games over .500.    

      Pick: Dodgers Team Total Under 3.5 (+102)

      Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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      Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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