MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (9/22)
Entering the weekend, two teams in both the American League and National League have clinched playoff spots, while eight others have been eliminated from playoff contention.
How much will that change over the next three days with several teams knocking at the door of playoff berths?
Friday’s Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Atlanta Braves (-260) vs. Washington Nationals (+215) | O/U 9.5 (-105/-115)
This wager dispels the notion that somehow, Atlanta Braves righty Charlie Morton is faltering or will be a liability down the stretch as they head into the playoffs. Morton followed up a four-start winning streak at the end of August with zero wins in his last three starts (including two losses) to begin September. While it would appear concerning that Morton has pitched to a 7.36 ERA and 2.05 WHIP this month, we are chalking his struggles up more to a brutal schedule in which he made three road starts against teams that all may be in the NL playoffs (Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins).
Morton has dominated teams under .500 of late, winning six of his previous nine starts while pitching to a 1.93 ERA and making six quality starts (he allowed zero earned runs in five of them). He should get right against a Washington Nationals team that has gone 6-13 in September while ranking 29th or worse in wRC+, wOBA, BABIP, and OPS.
We also cannot overlook the offense that backs Morton up, even if he does not have his best stuff, as six Braves hitters (Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Pillar, Orlando Arcia and Matt Olson) all have OPSs of .889 or better against Nationals lefty Patrick Corbin. Five of those have OPSs of 1.000 or better.
Pick: Braves -1.5 (-150)
Chicago White Sox (+180) vs. Boston Red Sox (-215) | O/U 9.5 (-105/-115)
Just when we were starting to get worried about Chris Sale, as he had not pitched five innings in five of his previous seven starts, he turned in a vintage Sale performance in his last start.
Sale is coming off his best performance in months, recording 18 outs for the first time since May 20 (nine starts in between) and double-digit strikeouts for the first time since May 5 (an 11-start stretch). The 10 strikeouts are the most impressive part, considering he achieved that against a Blue Jays lineup that has the best BB/K ratio (0.58) in MLB in September.
Sale’s 29.8% strikeout rate ranks in the 88th percentile and is up 49% from an injury-plagued year last season. Despite his velocity being down 1.9 mph on his slider and 2.6 mph on his fastball against Toronto, he still induced a staggering 41% CSW%, with 33 called strikes or whiffs on 81 pitches. We expect him to limit a Chicago White Sox lineup that has struck out at the third-highest rate (24.9%) of all AL teams against southpaws. In addition, Chicago has seen the team total under cash in 10 of its last 16 road games (+3.45 units, 19% ROI).
Pick: Chicago White Sox Team Total Under 3.5 (+102)
Kansas City Royals (+205) vs. Houston Astros (-250) | O/U 8 (-114/-106)
Many bettors will blindly bet a team in a division or wild card race against a team that has already been eliminated from playoff contention, assuming that the team with no chance to make the playoffs will roll over. But as the Houston Astros have figured out, that is not the case after losing four of their last 10 games and three consecutive series, two of which were to the Oakland Athletics and Kansas City Royals.
One of the two games Houston lost in the series to Kansas City was a 10-8 slugfest with Royals lefty Cole Ragans on the mound. While the Astros had J.P. France toeing the rubber that day, and Framber Valdez is a significant upgrade, Ragans also turned in an uncharacteristic performance given how he had been throwing. Ragans’ six-inning, five-run outing against the Astros was the only time since May 15 he allowed more than three earned runs. Ragans has the third-most whiffs in his last 300 pitches among starting pitchers, largely because his average fastball velocity is up to 96.5 mph versus 92.1 last year.
We understand that Houston has a lot more to play for, given that it is trying to nail down an AL West title, but we are buying Kansas City as a great value play with its best pitcher on the mound. The Royals can play freely without feeling the pressure of a pennant race. They’re live underdogs, having won seven of their last eight games and profiting moneyline bettors 8.10 units with a 101% ROI in that span.
Pick: Royals Moneyline (+205)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.