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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (4/10)

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The Tampa Bay Rays are now 9-0 to start the season, with all nine wins coming by at least four runs. Through the first eight games, they set a record for the best run differential (+46) since 1901, per Jim Passon. And for an encore on Easter Sunday, Tampa Bay again obliterated the Oakland Athletics 11-0, and Oakland’s -45 run differential is the third-worst in MLB history through nine games since 1900.

Here are our MLB best bets for Monday.

YTD: 13-13-1 (+3.26 units)

Today's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Chicago White Sox (-106) vs. Minnesota Twins (-110) | O/U 7.5 (-105/-115)

White Sox ace Dylan Cease led the league with a 12.3 K/9 rate in 2021. And while the 2023 season is just two weeks old, Cease is on pace to obliterate that mark, as his 18 strikeouts (fourth-most in the majors) have resulted in a 14.3 K/9 rate.

Cease has strikeout totals of eight and ten this season and struck out 15 Twins in two appearances last year. Though the Twins rank tied for 11th in lowest strikeout percentage (20.9%), four hitters that are projected to be in today’s lineup (Carlos Correa, Nick Gordon, Michael Taylor, and Trevor Larnach) each have struck out in at least 40% of their career at-bats against Cease (all have 10+ at-bats). That is a big reason Cease has held current Twins to a .134/.193/.262 slash line and 32 strikeouts in 82 combined at-bats. Conversely, Minnesota’s Kenta Maeda struck out 50% of batters faced in his first start, and his .199 xwOBA was much lower than the MLB average of .315.

While the Over is 10-1 in Chicago’s last 11 games with a projected total between 7.0 and 8.5, the Under has cashed in seven of Minnesota’s last nine home games against right-handed starters. In addition, the Under is 7-0-1 in the Twins’ previous eight games against starters with a WHIP of less than 1.15, which has us backing the Under for the first five innings with two solid pitchers on the mound.

Pick: White Sox-Twins First Five Innings Under 3.5(+100)

New York Yankees (+128) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-152) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105)

Though Cleveland lost its first home series of the season against Seattle over the weekend, the Guardians avoided a sweep in dramatic fashion, eeking out a win in 12 innings in a game they trailed 3-1 in the ninth inning. Thus, we look for them to continue the momentum against the Yankees with a massive starting pitching edge.

Yankees righty Domingo German has gone just 6-11 over the last three seasons after leading the league with a .818 winning percentage in 2019. German had an interesting line in his first start, striking out 44.4% of batters and ranking in the 93rd percentile among all pitchers in whiff percentage as a result. However, he also allowed a ton of hard contact and ranks in the sixth and eighth percentile in barrel percentage and xSLG. Meanwhile, Guardians ace Shane Bieber is used to getting off to hot starts, as his 2.87 ERA, 0.982 WHIP, and 11.2 K/9 rate in March/April starts are all second-best among any month in his career.

The Yankees are rarely underdogs, as it typically takes a significant pitching edge to find them at plus odds. New York has won 44% of its games as underdogs since 2018 (48-61) but is a rightful underdog today against a former Cy Young Award winner. The Yankees are 2-6 in their last eight road games, while the Guardians are 32-12 in their previous 44 games overall.

Pick: Guardians ML (-152)

Houston Astros (-200) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+168) | O/U 7.5 (-120/-102)

The Astros have been fixtures atop the league leaders in runs scored over the last several years. Still, this version that is missing Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley is a shell of what their World Series-winning lineups looked like, even though they have still tied for the ninth-most runs scored in the league.

Houston and Pittsburgh rank 15th and 16th in BABIP, while the Astros are a disappointing 26th in wOBA. And while the Pirates have relied on a surprising power surge for much of its offense so far, Astros southpaw Framber Valdez has not allowed a home run in any of his last 42 2/3 innings, per Inside Edge. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s Roansy Contreras has held opposing hitters to an 0-for-23 drought on at-bats ending with a breaking pitch, the longest such streak in the majors.

We were tempted to back Pittsburgh on the runline today, coming off a season where it was 42-39 covering the runline at home (seventh-best in the league). However, the -102 juice on the total is too low to pass up, especially since the Under is 4-0-1 in Houston’s last five interleague games and is 4-0-1 in Pittsburgh’s previous five home games against left-handed starting pitchers.

Pick: Astros-Pirates Under 7.5 (-102)

Check out our other top picks for Monday:

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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