MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (4/17)
One of the best traditions in baseball is the early Monday morning Red Sox game on Patriot’s Day, the same day as the running of the Boston Marathon. The game has extra pizazz this year, with the most exciting player in the sport, Shohei Ohtani, taking the mound for the visitors. Read on for our best play from that game and two others from Monday’s slate.
Here are our MLB best bets for Monday.
YTD: 18-22-1 (-1.36 units)
Today's Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Angels (-158) vs. Boston Red Sox (+134) | O/U 8.5 (-112/-108)
Los Angeles’ moneyline odds are curiously low with Ohtani on the mound, especially since he is 2-0 with a 0.47 ERA and 24 strikeouts in three starts. However, perhaps the low odds suggest Ohtani will not get much run support, as his first career start at Fenway Park went swimmingly (seven scoreless innings, 11 strikeouts). Boston’s Rafael Devers must be pitched carefully, as he entered Sunday with six home runs and 13 RBI in the previous eight games. But we expect the AL Cy Young favorite to get the better of that matchup and are limiting this wager to just the first five innings in case Red Sox starter Brayan Bello is on a short leash in his first start of the season. Bello’s xERA (3.80) was significantly better than his actual ERA (4.71) last season, and we expect the momentum of his 5.4% barrel rate to carry over to this season.
The Under is 11-4-2 in the last 17 meetings between these teams, and we expect another low-scoring game, especially in the early innings.
Pick: Angels-Red Sox F5 Under 4.5 (-114)
Pittsburgh Pirates (+126) vs. Colorado Rockies (-148) | O/U 11.5 (-118/-104)
Colorado is just 3-4 at home this season but went over .500 at Coors Field in 2022 (41-40) despite winning 68 games overall. Thus, we expect the Rockies to return to playing at a high level at home, starting with a series against the overachieving Pirates.
Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland has allowed just two runs in 18 2/3 innings this season, despite two of those starts coming at Coors Field. In addition, he faced two teams (Cardinals and Padres) that were expected to be NL Pennant contenders and who each scored over 700 runs last season.
Freeland should work efficiently against a Pirates team that ranks 25th in batting average (.235) but one that is in the top half of the league in slugging, thanks to his barrel percentage that ranks in the top third of the league. Meanwhile, we expect Colorado’s offense to mash against Pirates southpaw Rich Hill, as it ranked fifth in the league with a .381 BABIP against left-handed pitching in home games last year.
Colorado has won five of its last six at home against Pittsburgh and is 4-1 in its previous five games at Coors Field against a left-handed starting pitcher.
Pick: Rockies ML (-148)
Chicago Cubs (-142) vs. Oakland Athletics (+120) | O/U 8.5 (+100/-122)
Oakland does not have many wins to show for it, but its offense caught fire last week, suggesting better days could be on the horizon if it gets its pitching in order.
Despite a 1-6 over the previous seven days, Oakland’s lineup started to rake, ranking in the top ten in the league in BABIP, wRC+, and 14th in wOBA. Oakland’s poor record was the fault of its pitching staff which allowed 60 runs in that span, including allowing 10+ runs three times. However, we expect the organization’s No. 5 prospect, Kyle Muller, to right the ship. Muller is the only A’s starter that has a positive WAR, despite having a 5.52 ERA so far. And though the Cubs rank second in the league in BABIP (.373) against left-handed pitching this year, they are not putting the ball in play often, with the league’s fifth-highest strikeout rate (30.3%) against southpaws.
Chicago is 2-9 in its last 11 interleague games against teams with a losing record, while Oakland has won seven of its previous ten against the NL Central. We are backing the A’s confidently with the scheduling advantage of having played at home throughout the week while the Cubs continue a West Coast road trip.
Pick: A’s ML (+120)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.