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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (4/24)

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The Tampa Bay Rays keep rolling with a 19-3 overall record and a 13-0 record at Tropicana Field. That perfect mark will be tested this week against the Houston Astros, but three other games on Monday have our eye for our best bets column.

Here are our MLB best bets for Monday.

YTD: 22-34-1 (-8.85 units)

Today's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Boston Red Sox (-110) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-106) | O/U 8 (-112/-108)

This is the second meeting of Chris Sale and Dean Kremer this season, as Boston won the first matchup at Fenway Park 9-8 on April 1. Sale’s poor start in that gave (seven earned runs in three innings, three home runs allowed) is a big reason he has poor numbers this year (1-1, 8.00 ERA, 1.667 WHIP), but the Red Sox have still won three of his four starts, and the team has quietly won five of seven series to begin the year. Now Sale faces an Orioles lineup that he is 10-3 against with a 3.21 ERA and 1.088 WHIP in 24 career appearances (18 starts), and one he has held to a .208/.265/.398 slash line. Though he has struggled with control walking 2+ batters in all four starts, he is coming off a season-high 11-strikeout performance against Minnesota, his 28th 11+ strikeout regular-season start since 2017.

That Boston is a road favorite with a low O/U (eight runs) suggests oddsmakers believe Sale is in for a big bounce-back start. His velocity is down an average of at least one MPH on all four of his pitches, but he has generated a whiff percentage of 36% or higher on his four-seamer, slider, and changeup, and we like his chances of earning a road victory.

Boston has owned Baltimore recently, winning five of the previous six meetings and 39 of the last 57 in Camden Yards. And we are intrigued by the fishy nature of this line, as the Red Sox are road favorites despite the Orioles entering on an American League-best six-game winning streak.

Pick: Red Sox ML (-110)

Chicago White Sox (+144) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-172) | O/U 8.5 (-122/+100)

Chicago enters this game losers of six of seven games (four straight) and has scored four or fewer runs in all but one game in that span. The White Sox are missing the services of Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada, as Anderson’s .298 average and Moncada’s .889 OPS each rank third on the team. Over the last seven days, Chicago ranks 20th in wRC+ and wOBA and has the third-worst strikeout rate (28.6%).

Blue Jays righty Chris Bassitt has averaged the second-most pitches per start (92.5) of any pitcher in the team’s rotation despite pitching to a 5.40 ERA. Bassitt needs to keep the ball in the yard (his five home runs allowed is the team’s second-worst HR/9 rate) when facing a team that ranks 12th in ISO over the last week. However, Bassitt has gone at least six innings in three consecutive starts, and a meeting with Chicago represents another opportunity to improve upon a strikeout and barrel percentage that ranks in the bottom quarter of the league.

Lynn has been susceptible to the long ball this year (six home runs allowed in 21 1/3 innings), and his 2.5 HR/9 rate is on pace to be by far the worst of his career. In addition, Lynn is coming off his worst HR/9 rate (1.4) of his career, and Toronto ranks in the top eight in wRC+ and ISO in home games against right-handed pitchers this season.

The Blue Jays are 2-2 against the runline this season as home favorites, so we are opting for the better value on their runline at plus-money odds.

Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (+116)

Kansas City Royals (+116) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-136) | O/U 10 (-112/-108)

As Will Harris explained on Twitter, Kansas City starter Brad Keller’s resurgence from a poor year last season is one of the biggest reasons we like the Royals to win this road series opener.

A big reason for Keller’s success relative to last year is that he ranks in the top third of the league in barrels and xBA, and he has one of the highest ground ball rates (59.3%), which offsets his lack of control at times (5.6 BB/9 ranks in the 11th percentile).

Arizona’s Tommy Henry makes his first start of the season after going 3-4 with a 5.36 ERA and an unimpressive 36:21 K:BB ratio in nine starts last year. His ERA was an even worse 5.51 in five Cactus League appearances (four starts), and he should be on a short leash in this spot start. And per Inside Edge, Royals right-handed hitters entered Sunday with the eighth-lowest strikeout percentage (20%) versus left-handed pitching over the previous two weeks.

Kansas City has won four of its last five interleague games against left-handed starters and is 5-2 in its previous seven in Arizona. Therefore, we are buying the Royals as small road underdogs despite having just five wins and facing a first place team.

Pick: Royals ML (+116)

Check out our other best bets for Monday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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