Navigate

MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (5/1)

by |

Inclement weather in New York over the weekend limited the Mets’ series with the Atlanta Braves to just five innings from Friday to Sunday. How will we get involved with today’s doubleheader?

Here are our MLB best bets for Monday.

Today's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Atlanta Braves (-240) vs. New York Mets (+198) Game 1| O/U 8.5 (-110/-110)

At +200 odds at DraftKings, Atlanta Braves righty Spencer Strider is the favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award. Strider picked up right where he left off last year when he finished with a 2.39 xERA (2.40 xERA so far this year). He has elite swing-and-miss stuff, with a 40.1% whiff percentage, and has struck out 42.6% of batters.

The New York Mets’ best chance of offensive success against Strider is to hope he is wild. Strider has a 9.5% walk rate, and New York has the league’s best BB/K rate of 0.53. However, they are not hitting for power outside of Pete Alonso (.394 xSLG is 21st), and they likely need some big blasts to score against Strider, as stringing together hits is unlikely (Strider’s xBA .175). New York was set to oppose Strider with Tylor Megill, but he is pitching the second game of the doubleheader. Instead, New York is sending Denyi Reyes to the mound, whom they have only used in a relief role. Reyes’ first opportunity to be stretched out as a starter did not go well, as he allowed two runs in 1 2/3 innings at Syracuse. This has all the makings of New York sending a sacrificial lamb to the mound, figuring they were swimming uphill to beat Strider anyway.

Atlanta is 15-8 as favorites and has won 11 of 13 road games. However, we are opting for better value on the runline at FanDuel in the first game of the doubleheader.

Pick: Braves -1.5 runs Game 1 (-152)

Cleveland Guardians (+116) vs. New York Yankees (-134) | O/U 8.5 (-108/-112)

Yankees righty Domingo German has allowed ten earned runs in his previous 12 innings. However, he has been undone by five home runs in that span, which should not be an issue against a Guardians lineup that ranks 29th with 17 home runs and 27th in ISO. German is on pace for a career-high strikeout rate (30.8%) and has a whiff percentage of 30.6% or higher on three of his four primary pitches. Conversely, Guardians righty Cal Quantrill has a career .480 winning percentage in 54 road appearances (32 starts) and has a 1.342 WHIP away from home. That should help jumpstart a Yankees offense that has scored four runs over the previous three games, as slugger Aaron Judge has missed all three.

New York is 9-0 in its last nine home games against AL Central opponents following a road loss. In addition, the Yankees have won 51 of their previous 75 home meetings against Cleveland, and we expect German to overcome the offense’s shortcomings and lead the team to another victory.

Pick: Yankees ML (-134)

San Francisco Giants (+166) vs. Houston Astros (-198) | O/U 8.5 (-118/-104)

The schedule makers were not kind to the San Francisco Giants in this matchup, having them play just 24 hours after a grueling two-game series against a division rival in Mexico City. We would have loved the Houston Astros in this spot under normal circumstances, as the Giants are the second-worst road team in the National League (4-9). However, given the scheduling advantage, even though Houston played on Sunday Night Baseball last night, this is still too good of an opportunity to pass up.

The Giants pitching staff took a beating over the weekend, as the bullpen pitched nine innings in the last two games. San Francisco likely cannot bank on today’s starter, Ross Stripling, eating innings, as his 8.25 xERA is worse than his 6.89 actual ERA. Stripling ranks in the fifth percentile or worse in barrels and xSLG, and that should help an Astros offense that ranks outside the top 20 in hard-hit contact in home games get on track.    

Meanwhile, Astros starter Luis Garcia has led the team to consecutive wins in his starts by a combined score of 13-1. He has adjusted the new pitch clock rule, throwing 13 straight scoreless innings with a 16:3 K: B ratio in that span. 

Houston has won five of its last six home meetings with San Francisco, and the Giants have lost six of seven series openers. Thus, we are taking Houston on the runline for optimal value.

Pick: Astros -1.5 runs (+106)

Check out our other best bets for Monday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App