MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (5/15)
A 3-0 sweep in Friday’s column to end last week has us coming into a new week with plenty of momentum.
Here are our MLB best bets for Monday.
Today’s Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Yankees (+142) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-168)| O/U 9 (-122/+100)
The New York Yankees offense has come to life over the last week, scoring 7+ runs in six of the previous eight games. However, all but one of those games were played at home, and the Yankees are built for the ballpark they play in. However, the offensive momentum they generated in that span is about to be stopped in its tracks, as they are about to run into a buzzsaw of a pitcher they have not been able to solve in his young career.
Toronto Blue Jays righty Alek Manoah has held current Yankees to a .167/.246/.247 slash line in 78 combined at-bats. He has recorded 23 of those outs via strikeout, and just four of the 13 hits against him have gone for extra bases. Manoah’s 1.66 WHIP is primarily due to a lack of control, with 4+ walks issued in five of his last seven starts. But in an April 22 road start against the Yankees, he held them to two hits in seven scoreless innings, and we expect a similarly strong outing tonight.
These odds were off the board early Monday morning as the Yankees pondered whether or not to send Jhony Brito out for his regularly scheduled start, as his appearances have been taxing on the Yankees bullpen. Brito has completed five innings in just one of his last six starts, and he has a 7.23 ERA in his previous three road starts. If Brito does take the mound, we are making a confident play on Toronto’s runline, and would do so as well if this is a bullpen game.
Milwaukee Brewers (-108) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-108) | O/U 8 (-110/-110)
This is a curiously low total for two starting pitchers that have been lit up in the past by their opponents.
Busch Stadium has been a house of horrors for Brewers righty Freddy Peralta. He is 0-1 with a 6.59 ERA in four appearances (two starts) there, and current Cardinals hitters are slashing .300/.389/.592 in 90 career at-bats against him. The long ball has especially victimized Peralta in those appearances, as the Cardinals have taken him deep seven times. Five of those were from sluggers Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, who are a combined 13-for-33 (.394) against him, and each has OPSs of 1.303. If Peralta has trouble managing the heart of the order again, St. Louis is likely to hang some crooked numbers, leading to a short outing. Peralta needed 102 pitches to complete six innings against the Cardinals in his second start of the season despite allowing just four hits.
On the other side, Cardinals righty Jack Flaherty has allowed a .282/.370/.669 slash line to current Brewers hitters, and he also has been tagged for seven home runs and 12 extra-base hits in that span.
The Over is 3-0-2 in Peralta’s last five starts with the O/U set between 7.0-8.5, and has cashed in each of Flaherty’s previous five starts overall. There is no reason to think it will not cash again tonight.
Pick: Brewers-Cardinals Over 8 (-110)
Atlanta Braves (-154) vs. Texas Rangers (+130) | O/U 9 (-120/-102)
The Atlanta Braves endured a surprising three-game sweep at the Toronto Blue Jays, considering they are still nine games over .500 on the road. The offense struggled with just seven runs scored over the three-game series, but we expect a bounceback against a starting pitcher making his Major League debut.
The Rangers pivoted from Dane Dunning to southpaw Cody Bradford, who has allowed just four runs in 39 2/3 innings in the minors this year. However, the Braves are 9-4 against lefties this year, and they are not an easy opponent to face in one’s first MLB start. And Atlanta’s Charlie Morton’s xERA is more than 1.5 runs higher than his actual ERA (4.79 compared to 3.32), so we expect plenty of runs in a hitter’s ballpark.
The Over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings between these teams, and has cashed in 10 of Atlanta’s 14 series openers. Thus, we expect double-digits runs to be scored between these two teams tonight.
Pick: Braves-Rangers Over 9 (-120)
Check out our other best bets for Monday:
- MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions
- MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
- NHL Playoffs Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Matthew Freedman’s NHL Playoffs Player Prop Bet Picks
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.