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MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (5/22)

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The biggest Major League Baseball matchup of the day is between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves, the two teams with the best winning percentages in the National League. Are these two teams on another collision course to meet in the NLCS for the third time in four seasons? How do we see the series opener playing out tonight?

Here are our MLB best bets for Monday.

Today's Best MLB Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

St. Louis Cardinals (-190) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+160)| O/U 10 (-106/-114)

The Cincinnati Reds are a covering machine this season, as they entered Sunday 17-6 with a 39.7% ROI against the run line after a loss this season (per Inside Edge), which was the best in the majors. And despite it also entering Sunday with the second-best record (8-3, 33.4% ROI) against the run-line at home in the last 30 days, we expect St. Louis to expose the Reds’ young starting pitcher in his first home start.

Since May 5, the Cardinals have the best record in the National League (11-4), and they have made up five games in the division (10 games back to five games back) in that span. The Cardinals look to continue that success against Cincinnati Reds lefty Brandon Williamson, who dazzled in his MLB debut on Tuesday at Coors Field, allowing one earned run in 5 2/3 innings.

Though Williamson never threw more than 15 pitches in an inning and retired 14 consecutive batters at one point, we are not getting too excited, given he pitched to a 6.62 ERA in eight starts at Triple-A. Since St. Louis’ winning ways began earlier this month, it ranks best in the majors in HR/FB rate (19.4%) against left-handed pitching, with the second-highest hard-hit rate.

The Cardinals have lost each of southpaw Jordan Montgomery’s last seven starts, but we expect them to break out of that slump in a big way against a Reds team that has lost four straight overall.

Pick: Cardinals RL (-128)

Toronto Blue Jays (+102) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-120) | O/U 8.5 (-118/-104)

If Dodgers-Braves is the marquee National League matchup today, this AL East battle is not too far behind on the “must-watch television meter.” This is a strength vs. strength matchup, as the hottest pitcher in baseball faces the sport’s best offense.

Chris Bassitt comes into this start with a 27 1/3 consecutive scoreless innings streak, the longest active in baseball. In addition, per Inside Edge, Bassitt has not allowed an extra-base hit in 11 2/3 straight innings and has recorded at least 21 outs in three consecutive starts (only Nathan Eovaldi has a longer active streak with four straight starts). Given Bassitt’s ability to keep the ball in the yard, we are not backing the Over on the Tampa Bay Rays’ team total. However, Tampa Bay leads the majors in nearly every statistical offensive category, so while Bassitt has allowed four or fewer hits in eight consecutive starts, consider this a contrarian play with good offense beating good pitching.

Toronto is reeling, having lost four consecutive games and six of seven. And while the Blue Jays have won each of Bassitt’s last four starts against teams with a winning record, the Rays have had their way with Toronto at home, winning 37 of the previous 55 in Tampa.

Pick: Rays ML (-120)

Los Angeles Dodgers (+128) vs. Atlanta Braves (-152) | O/U 9.5 (-102/-120)

Charlie Morton has allowed a combined .301/.345/.795 slash line to current Los Angeles Dodgers hitters over 136 combined at-bats, and two of L.A.’s best hitters have done much of that damage. Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts have combined for 16 of the 41 hits and three of the four home runs against Morton.

Los Angeles has the best wRC+, wOBA, and OPS of any National League team against right-handed pitching. And its offense has been hot lately, scoring 5+ runs in six of the last seven games. Morton has averaged six innings per start in his previous seven starts, recording at least 18 outs in five of six. However, if given a chance to last that deep in the game, we expect the Dodgers offense to heat up, given that Morton’s ERA is 5.62, 2.25, and 4.76 in the fourth through sixth innings, respectively, this season.

The Over has cashed in each of L.A.’s last six Monday games and 12 of its last 15 road games against right-handed starters. So while the Under has cashed in each of the previous five meetings between these teams, we still expect the Dodgers to do their part in the scoring.

Pick: Dodgers Team Total Over 4 (-118)

Check out our other best bets for Monday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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